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-   -   Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold'em Survey (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=385866)

TomBrooks 11-26-2005 10:37 PM

Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
LIMIT HOLD'EM ONLY please.

What's you loss percentage with AA? Please specify only if you have exact data and at least 10,000 hands. Feel free to post any related notes or comments. Any distinctions between limits, sites, other factors etc.

TomBrooks 11-26-2005 11:22 PM

Re: Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
I have 56,700 hands and have been dealt AA 250 times which is 11 times or 4% less than the average of once every 220 hands.

My W/L/T record with it is 182/68/1. That's 73% wins and 27% losses.

My longest losing streak is 3 in a row which has happened several times.

Using 27% as an average loss rate, the chances of losing with AA 3 times in a row are .27 x .27 x .27 = 2% or 1 in 50.

The chances of losing 4 times in a row would be 0.5% or 1 time in 200. I'm slightly overdue for that to happen.

The chances of losing 5 times in a row would be 0.14% or 1 time in 700. I'll expect that to happen approximately once by the time I reach 150,000 hands.

What's the most times in a row you've lost with AA?

Relevant comments welcome.

waffle 11-26-2005 11:23 PM

Re: Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
80k hands of 6max, 18%. (win% column in PT reads 81.90%)

TomBrooks 11-26-2005 11:31 PM

Re: Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
[ QUOTE ]
80k hands of 6max, 18%. (win% column in PT reads 81.90%)

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, waffle. I didn't think AA could win that much so I didn't expand the poll to go that far. Interesting. Will have to see more results to find out if your 82% is an abberation or not. I suspect it wins more in 6 max than full ring. I have about 22k 6 max and 35k full ring with my 73% win rate.

waffle 11-27-2005 12:02 AM

Re: Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
here's some other hands if you're interested
KK - 73% win
QQ - 66% win

AKo - 56%
AKs - 58%

Fabian 11-27-2005 01:37 AM

Re: Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
In my newest database of ~40,000 hands I've had AA 185 times and my win% is 84%.

DeuceHigh80 11-27-2005 02:04 AM

Re: Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
Over 82,000 hands (~1000 6 Max, the rest full ring) I have 352 AA with a 72.2% win rate. I have one losing streak of 5 in a row and a couple of 4's...

11-27-2005 03:50 AM

Re: Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
Over 19K hands, had AA 103 times, won 78.64%. Longest losing streak- 2. Hoo-boy. This is all micro-limit, from .25/.50 to 1/2.

KSOT 11-27-2005 05:46 AM

Re: Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
61k hands, mostly full ring some short handed, dealt AA exactly 300 times, winning with it 80.67% of the time.

Lost with them 4 times in a row once and 3 another time.

Won with them 16 times in a row on two separate occasions. One of them was back to back with a 14 in a row streak, making me 30-1 for a brief stretch.

tansoku 11-27-2005 01:36 PM

Re: Whats Your Loss Percentage With AA? Limit Hold\'em Survey
 
60K hands.
AA 273, 78.4% win, 2.51 BB/hand
KK 286, 71.7% win, 1.95 BB/hand
QQ 318, 65% win, 1.18 BB/hand
JJ 258, 60.5% win, .98 BB/hand
AKs 273, 58.5% win, .89 BB/hand
AKos 572, 55.7% win, .77 BB/hand


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