Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

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If craps is your game of choice, or you have always wanted to give it a try then Tues 6 Dec - Sun 11 Dec are the dates to play! If the dice didn't roll in your favour during this time we'll refund you with 10% cashback on Mon 12 Dec 2005!

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Am I wrong to think this is +ev?

Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

If you bet $100 and lose $1.40 of that, you get .14 back. So, it's a 10% discount on the house edge.

So, yes.

Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

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it's a 10% discount on the house edge.

So, no.

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fyp?

edit: bad reading comprehension, thought you meant "yes" to the +ev, not "yes" to me being wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'll leave my stupidity up there for all to see.

Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

Yes, because it's losses so it will still be -ev. If you lose that is.

Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

I'm pretty sure this can be +EV.

Let's say you make only one bet. Pass line for $100.

Two possibilites.
48.6% of the time you win and have $200. (.486*200)=97.2
51.4% of the time you lose and have $10. (.514*10)=5.14

So, on average you will have (97.2+5.14)=$102.34

Of course, if you keep betting, the HA will quickly make this -EV.

Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

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Of course, if you keep betting, the HA will quickly make this -EV.

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If the HA isn't changing ... how can the EV of a bet change?

Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

Check this out. It's a bit confusing, but might help:

(i'm not sure about my +/- EV consideration anymore)
wizard of odds calculations

Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

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Of course, if you keep betting, the HA will quickly make this -EV.

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If the HA isn't changing ... how can the EV of a bet change?

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The refund isn't on each bet, it's on the total loss.

Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

Are you people insane? This is huge +EV. Bet $100 on pass or something. (I have no idea how craps works.) If you win, you win $100, if you lose, you lose $90.

Re: Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses
 

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Are you people insane? This is huge +EV. Bet $100 on pass or something. (I have no idea how craps works.) If you win, you win $100, if you lose, you lose $90.

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Bob,

Please see my post where I rescinded my previous comments.