Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

I'm new to Ultimate Bet, and to this table (only 1 orbit, this is my second time in the BB, and I haven't yet played a hand), so I have no reads, and then this hand comes up:

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) converter

SB ($52.25)
Hero ($198)
UTG ($227.50)
Button ($390.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $7</font>, Button calls $7, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $22</font>, UTG calls $15, Button calls $15.

Flop: ($67) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $67</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises all-in to $205.50 </font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button calls $205.50 </font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero????</font>.

My thoughts:
UTG's preflop raise indicates to me that he probably does not hold pocket 4's or 5's, although with no reads this is hard. My thought is that most people do not raise this small a pocket pair utg, I put him on an overpair, 10's or higher, maybe even a strong Ace with two clubs. The problem is Button, he called twice preflop, and called this bet as well pretty quickly, is he a maniac who is calling with a draw? Or does he have the goods enough percentage of the time to justify me folding here? My thought is that, at least half the time he will have made a set or better, however I am getting 5:1 on my money. But He may have a set or better as much as 80 percent of the time here, given the action. AA is one of my leaks.

Edit: The only read I have is that I chose this table because it had a high table pot average, and a high percentage of players seeing the flop.

Edit: Upon further reflection, given that It was a $109 call to win a $500ish pot, I now feel that the correct move here is calling, I have maybe 5 or 6 clean outs even if I am behind. Thoughts?

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

yes, over-calling here is terrible w/o the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] redraw.

additionally, betting $55-60 should save you a few bucks in the long-run and give you the information you need, but that may be nit picking.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

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yes, over-calling here is terrible w/o the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] redraw.

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So I'm not good here more than more than 4/5 times?

Edit: Or am I looking at this the wrong way?

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

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yes, over-calling here is terrible w/o the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] redraw.

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So I'm not good here more than more than 4/5 times?

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you are good 1/10 times here!

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

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yes, over-calling here is terrible w/o the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] redraw.

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So I'm not good here more than more than 4/5 times?

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you are good 1/10 times here!

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Ok, that was my initial thought as well, but afterwards I started secood guessing myself, thanks.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

jman220,

don't worry about what the villains showed down this hand. calling in this spot will lead to bad poker.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
jman220,

don't worry about what the villains showed down this hand. calling in this spot will lead to bad poker.

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Haha, oh believe me, it has nothing to do with what was shown down in this hand. I was thinking about it from a purely theoretical standpoint, because I am aware that I do not play overpairs optimally postflop. But thank you.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

I don't play on UB, but I call this on Party all day expecting a smaller overpair and a club draw.

Edit to add I also raise more preflop.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

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I don't play on UB, but I call this on Party all day expecting a smaller overpair and a club draw.

Edit to add I also raise more preflop.

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i agree

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

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I don't play on UB, but I call this on Party all day expecting a smaller overpair and a club draw.

Edit to add I also raise more preflop.

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What do you raise to preflop?

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

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I don't play on UB, but I call this on Party all day expecting a smaller overpair and a club draw.

Edit to add I also raise more preflop.

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What do you raise to preflop?

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To about $30-$40 straight. I'm out of position and looking to commit myself as early as possible. There's been a raise and a call already so, even if I get no action, I pick up a nice pot. If I can get ~1/6 of my stack in preflop with AA, I'm perfectly willing to get the rest in postflop regardless.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

$28 is a fine number. Would make the flop decision very easy. I still call this.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

PSR would be to 27. I would probably make it 30, because
a) nobody wants multi-way pot OOP in this spot
b) it tends to narrow opponent hand range

btw, i fold that flop after that action by default (no reads)

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
jman220,

don't worry about what the villains showed down this hand. calling in this spot will lead to bad poker.

[/ QUOTE ]
WHAT?

no effing way do i fold this unless button is really solid and will almost always have 22-44... since i doubt this is the case, call!
you have UTG killed and button likely has a club draw... you are getting a nice price here callcallcall... yell hold em dealer at the screen.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

i dont fold here ever. even rocks will show you KK and stuff. tha preflop rr narrows the range a lot.

and to the poster who said that not having the Ac makes a big difference, um thats pretty marginal and insignificant. i dont think it swings the decision one way or the other at all. its not going to turn a fold into a call or anything.

edit also- to whoever said the preflop utg raise takes the small pairs out of UTGs range, um what? i open UTG for 4bb with all pairs. but 22-44 id fold to a reraise while oop. so call and holler.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i dont fold here ever. even rocks will show you KK and stuff. tha preflop rr narrows the range a lot.

and to the poster who said that not having the Ac makes a big difference, um thats pretty marginal and insignificant. i dont think it swings the decision one way or the other at all. its not going to turn a fold into a call or anything.

edit also- to whoever said the preflop utg raise takes the small pairs out of UTGs range, um what? i open UTG for 4bb with all pairs. but 22-44 id fold to a reraise while oop. so call and holler.

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you are right, but it makes it much better if you're drawing against a set, etc.

But if UB games play anything like FT games, this is probably a fold as most levels above NL200+

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

so utg called a reraise oop with 22-44 enough times to make up for the times you crush an overpair and are decently ahead of a draw? no

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

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so utg called a reraise oop with 22-44 enough times to make up for the times you crush an overpair and are decently ahead of a draw? no

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yes.

utg &amp; button called raised.

bb leads, utg raises, button flat calls.

looks like he wants hero coming along for the ride.

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

first off, ub has a nice pot button for preflop situations like this...

then insta call flop...its like only 100 or so more...

hands like this are a insta stack in 4 handed games and lower, there just a lot more aggressive, specially in my games where the action is super fast..

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

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bb leads, utg raises, button flat calls.

looks like he wants hero coming along for the ride.

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I should point tout that the bet that button flat called was an all-in bet that had me covered as well. Therefore, hiim flat calling as opposed to raising is meaningless IMO (Unless you think people will raise an amount that doesn't mean anythign because they think it will make an opponent psychologically more likely to fold).

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

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But if UB games play anything like FT games, this is probably a fold as most levels above NL200+

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Keep in mind that I chose this table because it had very high avg. pot sizes, and a high VP$IP (Party-level stats, I don't remember exactly what they were, but I normally play party, and these were at least equivalent or better).

Does this change the analysis at all?

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
yes, over-calling here is terrible w/o the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] redraw.

additionally, betting $55-60 should save you a few bucks in the long-run and give you the information you need, but that may be nit picking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding here is suicidally silly. He has 2 ace outs and 4 gutshot outs IF he is behind.

If this is the loose table, hero has little info about hte history between these two players, and he is getting 5-1, how can you even consider folding? Don't compound a quick error by explaining it into a well thought out one.

Results
 

So this was one of the longest amounts of time I've taken for a poker decision, I nearly ran the clock out. At first I completely felt that I was beat, and there was no way that button cold-calls an all in with anything less than a set. Then I realized that the pot was laying me 5:1 odds on the call, but I couldn't figure out if I"m really good 1 in 5 times. Then I realized that I also had outs, anywhere from 4-6, absolute worse case scenario being UTG playing AX clubs and Button having a set, leaving me with 3 clean straight outs, and 1 clean set out. I finally decided to call, but even after the hand I wasn't sure if it was correct (which is why I posted here). In fact I had all but convinced myself that I made a totally donk call. Consensus seems to be that it was the correct call however, so I feel better. Here's the hand history in full (I had to modify it slightly because converter isn't working properly):

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) converter

SB ($52.25)
Hero ($198)
UTG ($227.50)
Button ($390.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $7</font>, Button calls $7, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $22</font>, UTG calls $15, Button calls $15.

Flop: ($67) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $67</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets all in for $205</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button calls</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero calls</font>.

Turn: ($654) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

River: ($654) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

Final Pot: $654

Results (in white):

<font color="white"> Hero had AA
UTG Villain Had 10c/7c
Button Had 44 (for the set)

So I did indeed only have 4 outs, or maybe 4.25 if you count the ace of clubs plus the boat redraw as a quarter of an out. Not that the results matter.</font>

Re: Results
 

These results = merry Xmas jman [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Results
 

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These results = merry Xmas jman [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Haha, yup: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=2#Post4275983

Re: Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?
 

I also have had my share of troubles with AA in the past and have therefore given these situations some thoughts.
First: what table image do you have? Since you are new to the game your opponents do not know this and therefore have to label you as tight until proven otherwise. The range of hands they can put you on would be something like AA KK QQ JJ and AKs
Let's look at this situation from the button and assume that he has put you on this range of hands.
For him to call he needs a premium hand himself. If however he has position and deep money he can also add medium and pocket pairs to his range. These are the ultimat trap hands and have huge implied odds

Given this information, the flop is a total disaster for you. You correctly make a potsized bet, but I would have let go of the hand after that.