Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

Most players overestimate their fold equity.

Villain only needs to be ~40% in the hand, and is in critical chip situation so may make calls with less than 40%.

roughly Villain calls any suited, any ace,king,queen, 1/2 the jacks, tens down to t8, 9 down to 98. roughly 80% of his hands. Hero is only 40% against this range, substantially EV-.

Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

ya I guess you're right, I think it really depends on if the BB knows the situation he's in or not.

Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

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if he's a good player he'll probably call with any hand that's better, equal, or a little less in value than a random hand..

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unless you've seen the guy do something like this before, i'm not giving a random player credit enough to make good borderline calls. No way do you get looked up here 60/70% of the time. 25%-30% is a lot closer.

Examples of hands in the top 70%: T2s, J2s, 34s 35s 36s etc etc.

Any pair, any ace, and broadway, a few extra random kings/queens. is like 30% of hands, aand i think is what i'd give to this player that we decided is 'good'.

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my thoughts exactly. he's not desperate enough to call with freaking ANY TWO, hands like 76s or something. probably something like top 25%-35% - any pair, any ace, most kings and queens, and some jacks and tens.

Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

[ QUOTE ]
Most players overestimate their fold equity.

Villain only needs to be ~40% in the hand, and is in critical chip situation so may make calls with less than 40%.

roughly Villain calls any suited, any ace,king,queen, 1/2 the jacks, tens down to t8, 9 down to 98. roughly 80% of his hands. Hero is only 40% against this range, substantially EV-.

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..."any suited, any ace,king,queen, 1/2 the jacks, tens down to t8, 9 down to 98" - this is 80% of all hands? I doubt that, and villian isn't stupid enough to call with all suited trash hands.

I mean, I think this was the best guy to steal from at the table.

Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

A player with 4XBB left is the worst player at the table to steal from.

From villain's point of view, Folding 75% of the time is a terrible option when you have 4XBB left and your opponents range is likely j6++, but maybe much wider.

Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

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effective stacks are 5bb... i'm pushing anyn two here.

But i'm a retard from the SB i think.

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Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

I push all the time here with good results. It's rare for me to see somebody call with less than A-high, a pair, or two broadway cards, and many players are even tighter than that, waiting for a pair or a medium/strong ace. Add in the times when 53s wins the pot and you're well in the black.

I hate folding around to a guy with a stack that small and calling will just entice him to push into you. I think you have to force him to make the call and then win the hand.

Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

More info that I sorta alluded to in the OP - average is 15x, I have slightly above that, and villain has 5x.

I think it's the PERFECT situation to push because it's so borderline. Villian isn't auto-committed as he would be with 3x or so. With 5x, he could fold here and the SB next hand and still have 3.5x, which he knows still has good fold equity during the next orbit (since people were playing tight and minraises were taking down the pot half the time preflop!)

if he has 3x I fold, 4x is tougher, 5x me likey.

Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

Villain has 4XBB left as stated in the problem, the BB is a sunk cost. Villain gets 5XBB:4XBB pot odds and has to be 44% in the hand against hero's range to make the call. Less if you are willing to take an EV- proposition on a micro stack.

What is hero's range for pushing? Judging from the donktastic responses it's any two.

From my point of view your logic is flawed, the more chips villain has the wider range hero should push. However 53s should not be in any pushing range where you can resonably expect villain to call.

Re: SB push with 53s ... stay with me
 

If he folds 37.5% of the time, then your bet is a break-even bet. If he folds more than that, then your bet increases your expected chip count. Otherwise, it's a loser.

Here's the math:

chip counts
Chips if folding: 6800
Chips if pushing and villian folds: 7400
Expected Chip Count if Called: 6440

[53s wins about 36% of the time against a combination of pairs and overcards. So if you push, your expected chip count is 6440: (.36*9000) + (.64 * 5000)]

Fold Equity needed

Solving x for this equation:
6800 = 7400x + 6440*(1-x), where x = fold equity

x = 37.5%

expected chip counts

If villian folds 37.5% of the time:
7400 chips * 37.5% = 2775 chips
6440 chips * 62.5% = 4025 chips
Total: 6800 chips (exact value if you fold this hand instead)


If, instead, the villian folds 50% of his hands:
7400 * .50 = 3700
6440 * .50 = 3220
Total chips = 6920 chips

outcome
Let's say that he does fold 50% of the time. Then your outcome is:

50% of the time you will have 7400 chips
32% of the time you will have 5000 chips
18% of the time you will have 9000 chips

So overall you gain a bit.