Strong draw against a few players
 

Pre-flop and flop are pretty standard, but I'm wondering about the turn. I've picked up a few more outs with the straight draw. An ace may also be an out, I'm not sure. So should I bet for value here, or take the free card? I'm not great with EV calculations, but I think its close.


Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $0.75.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero?

Re: Strong draw against a few players
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not great with EV calculations, but I think its close.

[/ QUOTE ]
In general, close is OK, but now that you have time to think about it, you should do better. Just answer these questions and you'll be all set!

1. How many outs do you give yourself?
2. Based on those outs, what odds do you have to improve?
3. How many callers do you need to make a bet +EV?

Re: Strong draw against a few players
 

I bet this w/o hesitation (and IMO isn't close at all); you obviously have fl/str and maybe a couple A outs; the reason I bet is because you might lose these guys *when* you hit (something) - so get their bets now. Since the field is relatively large IMO you cannot pass up this opportunity...

Mike

Re: Strong draw against a few players
 

You have 12 outs to the nuts. Only counting them you need to get in atleast 3.8 BB's in the pott on average here (including your own) to break even. If your lucky you got 15 outs, maybe more, so it's a bet.

Re: Strong draw against a few players
 

Hmmmm. Is this where we refuse the free card so we can bet and try to make MP or LP fold? I don't think I'm folding all such hands in this large pot, so I take the free card and fold the river U/I.

Post-grunch: Changed my mind. Bet. You have ~14-15 outs, and two callers will make this +EV even if you are currently beaten. And you may indeed make MP/LP fold and be against only another drawing hand.

Re: Strong draw against a few players
 

They probably have some type of pair and a bet on this round will probably never take down the pot. I would check the turn and hope to improve.

Re: Strong draw against a few players
 

So here are my thoughts. We obviously have the 9 outs for the flush. There are 3 J's, but one makes the BDF, so let's say 2.75. We have the A overcard, which is usually worth ~1.5 outs, so that's about 13.25 outs. With those outs, we'll improve about 29% of the time, so we need 3 other callers. (If there are 3 callers, we're putting in 25% of the $$$, but winning 29% of the time.)

So it's really close. UTG will call almost all the time. BB cold-called 2 on the flop, so he'll usually call. Who knows about MP. I just don't think they'll all call often enough to make a bet +EV. I take the free card.

Re: Strong draw against a few players
 

Numeri,

I'm going back and forth on this one.

I understand your pot equity analysis, and it looks solid (my post-grunch bet recommendation based on equity w/14-15 outs was not right BTW for anyone reading this, b/c of a mathematical miscalculation).

But, is it solely a pot equity analysis that determines how we play it here? The concept I'm thinking about is protecting draws and buying outs in a large pot (i.e., in a large pot, getting a few % points increase in our ability to win is valuable). In other words, if we miss our flush draw will a turn bet be worthwhile anyhow in order to buy outs in the event we make a pair? Is that not applicable here because we're not getting Kings to fold?

Re: Strong draw against a few players
 

I don't mind checking behind here, even having an equity edge. What part of UTG's range are you ahead of here, and how likely is he to check/raise and blow out the field, reducing your equity? If I had a read on UTG that he was passive, a bet would be OK.

Re: Strong draw against a few players
 

With that logic, we're trying to fold a K or hands like A3, A7, or AT. I don't see any way a K is going to fold. If a K called the flop to improve, it just did! As for the Ax hands, I'm not so sure. We have no reads. Without them, I think it's safe to assume that any A hand that has us dominated is going to call this turn bet. In their minds, it's "I have a pair and an A overcard. Easy call." Of course, they'd be correct to do so, but the point is, I don't see them folding often enough to make betting here worth the increase in our equity.