Party 33 - blind battle w/trips on river
 

Is this push on the river after a min raise -EV? Why, or why not? Only 8 hands have me beat here.

6 handed bb t50

Table Table 67775 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: HERO (1105)
Seat 2: SHURKLEEN (1570)
Seat 4: ics2626 (2940)
Seat 6: MotorheadFan (920)
Seat 9: Happyboolin (710)
Seat 10: dglongball (755)
dglongball posts small blind (25)
HERO posts big blind (50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
SHURKLEEN folds.
ics2626 calls (50)
MotorheadFan folds.
Happyboolin folds.
dglongball folds.
HERO checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
HERO checks.
ics2626 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
HERO checks.
ics2626 checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
HERO bets (100)
ics2626 raises (200) to 200
HERO raises (955) to 1055
HERO is all-In.

Re: Party 33 - blind battle w/trips on river
 

IMO it is a mistake to push this river card (value bet was fine).

(rereading Slansky's Fundamental Theory of Poker lately, touching on this very situation)

Coupled with believing you have the best hand (you having stated clearly, that you likely do), is the degree to which you believe he will make this call with a lessor one.

I don't think you can satisfy the latter given this river card, and this river action - often enough to compensate for the times when villian is holding a boat (or possibly weakly played A5).

A hand that fits his PF & post flop pay is 88 (minus not leading the turn I suppose). Granted, it isn't often he holds exactly those two cards. But with your river lead+3bet, a weaker hand simply cannot discredit your trips here...no more so than the likelihood of him holding precisely 88.

Alone with the BB, villian is not playing the flop/turn this passively without a hand that a) doesn't have you likely drawing dead after the turn, or b) simply cannot make this push call --- thus you call the minraise.


Edit: Also not he only minraised your river lead. The above not withstanding, he certainly has the chips to "test" you for the 5 here. This min looks much more like a true value bet vs. some kind of resteal attempt.

Re: Party 33 - blind battle w/trips on river
 

Weird spot, it's hard to see how he could have a non-pair 5 or two pair after the initial limp. Maybe A5s or K5s? In which case you are beat.

So I don't see how you are getting a worse hand to call you here.

Looks like a call of his river bet and hope for the best.

Also, I think it's a bad idea to think about the exact number of hands that have you beat. Your job is to figure out what hands he could have. In this case, it's likely only those eight hands you are worried about are the ones that call your river push.

Re: Party 33 - blind battle w/trips on river
 

i would call there and expect to be good a strong majority of the time, but villain usually folds Kx if you push.