Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

UTG+1 is unknown.

PREFLOP:
UTG+1 open-raises, folded to Hero in the BB who 3-bets with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

FLOP: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets, MP calls.

TURN: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero folds.


Should I have just checked and called both the turn and river when the Ace hit?

What would your line be if a K or a Q hit the turn?

Thanks,
Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

I think you played it well. With no reads I would do the same thing. I always bet this turn no matter what with a hand as strong as JJ. Against a King or Queen, especially if it two-flushes the board, I will probably call down (possibility of aggressive draws).

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

Against an unknown my line for an A would definately be a bet/fold.

I'd dump on a K/Q to a turn raise as well.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

i think you've got to bet-fold. it sucks, because you're going to fold worse hands and also open the possibility of getting bluff raised by them, and you're ahead of more of his range than you're behind. however, i don't think he bluffs both streets often enough for check-calling down to be profitable, and i also don't think he bluffs you off the best hand often enough for there to be anything wrong with bet-folding. so i guess you've got to go with the lesser of 2 evils.

of course, we don't know that he'll bet the turn after we check.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

It's bet/fold most of the time but occasionally I use check-call check-fold. I sometimes do the latter though I'm not sure it ever really works out.

Krishan

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

I play the same since there are no draws to warrant a semibluff from villain. Sometimes, we'll fold the best hand...oh well...we'll have better reads on him in a few minutes.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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It's bet/fold most of the time but occasionally I use check-call check-fold. I sometimes do the latter though I'm not sure it ever really works out.

Krishan

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Do you switch between the two randomly or is there a factor that makes you check-call check-fold sometimes?

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

it definitely works sometimes, but i don't think it works well against unknowns.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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It's bet/fold most of the time but occasionally I use check-call check-fold. I sometimes do the latter though I'm not sure it ever really works out.

Krishan

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Do you switch between the two randomly or is there a factor that makes you check-call check-fold sometimes?

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I probably bet/fold 90%. I think having a decent read will make me check-call, check-fold. If I'm running badly, Villian may be tilting, villian is tricky I try it sometimes.

Krishan

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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it definitely works sometimes, but i don't think it works well against unknowns.

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I agree. It's good to know other half decent lines for this spot though.

Krishan

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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i think you've got to bet-fold.

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Do you guys also bet-fold if a K or a Q hits?

Thanks,
Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

Makes sense. thx

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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i think you've got to bet-fold.

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Do you guys also bet-fold if a K or a Q hits?

Thanks,
Cartman

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These make gutshots and oesd more probable so I may be a little more prone to call down. These become even more read dependent.

If the turn puts a flush draw, though, I call down without reads.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

I have thought quite a bit about this hand and the more I do so the less I like bet fold whether the turn card is an A, a K, or a Q. There are tons of guys at 5/10 who are guaranteed to put a raise in at some point postflop when they are heads up after raising preflop, whether or not they were 3-bet preflop. Unless the opponent is the straightforward type who would only raise with a hand better than our JJ, then not going to the showdown with only one overcard on the board seems like a mistake.

The problem is that I think it is very possible that villain would raise this turn with any pocket pair, AT, or even an adopted gutshot or open-ended as well as with the hands that we beat. The risk of folding the best hand seems not to be worth the extra value we get by continuing to bet.

I think if we check the turn, it is very likely that we will get a turn bet out of him with worse hands to represent the overcard. If he does check behind, it is more likely that we get a river call from a hand that may not have called both the turn and river had we kept firing.

This of course all depends on the aggressiveness of our opponent which, of course and as in this example, we didn't know. That said, it seems to me like the best solution is:

1) Bet-fold against opponents with below average aggression
2) Check-call both streets against opponents with average to above average aggression
3) Bet and call down against very aggressive opponents

What do you guys think?

Can you explain where my conclusions are flawed?

Thanks,
Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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I have thought quite a bit about this hand and the more I do so the less I like bet fold whether the turn card is an A, a K, or a Q. There are tons of guys at 5/10 who are guaranteed to put a raise in at some point postflop when they are heads up after raising preflop, whether or not they were 3-bet preflop. Unless the opponent is the straightforward type who would only raise with a hand better than our JJ, then not going to the showdown with only one overcard on the board seems like a mistake.

The problem is that I think it is very possible that villain would raise this turn with any pocket pair, AT, or even an adopted gutshot or open-ended as well as with the hands that we beat. The risk of folding the best hand seems not to be worth the extra value we get by continuing to bet.

I think if we check the turn, it is very likely that we will get a turn bet out of him with worse hands to represent the overcard. If he does check behind, it is more likely that we get a river call from a hand that may not have called both the turn and river had we kept firing.

This of course all depends on the aggressiveness of our opponent which, of course and as in this example, we didn't know. That said, it seems to me like the best solution is:

1) Bet-fold against opponents with below average aggression
2) Check-call both streets against opponents with average to above average aggression
3) Bet and call down against very aggressive opponents

What do you guys think?

Can you explain where my conclusions are flawed?

Thanks,
Cartman

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I don't get the distinction between Nos. 2 and 3. I was expecting there to be an aggression threshold above which the best strategy switched from betting to checking. Why are you bet-calling against the really aggro guys? It seems like they would be the ones from whom a check would extract the max value (b/c they will bet-bet hands with no outs, etc)

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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Why are you bet-calling against the really aggro guys?

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Because they are so likely to raise with worse hands that it is best to bet to induce the raise. I am talking about guys who are aggressive enough that they are almost certain to raise with any pocket pair, T, adopted draw, or even just Ace high (in the case of a K or Q turn). I think betting gets the most value out of these guys.

Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

If these guys are raising with all these hands, aren't they guaranteed to bet with literally any 2 cards if you check, though? Just off the top of my head it seems like earning 1 bet on the turn every time is more profitable than earning 2 bets the times they have a reasonable hand (by their standards).

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

I think you are misunderstanding my assessment of "very aggressive". I am talking about guys who are almost guaranteed to raise this turn with anything they raised with preflop, either because they can't resist a semibluff or because they can't bear to fold if they have nothing so they might as well bluff raise to represent the paired overcard. A guy would have to be a massive overplayer or borderline maniac for me to take this line.

Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

yep i think you've pretty much got it down cartman. i just assume total unknowns have below average aggression, so i'm bet-folding there. most unknowns aren't free showdown or bluff raising the turn much.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

Just wondering, would you take the same line with QQ/KK?

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

When an overcard hits, yes I think QQ and KK are very similar to JJ because it takes a big card to be an overcard to them. I think the situation would change some when our preflop and flop actions were the same and I held 77 on a 6 high flop and then a 9 hit the turn. I am not as concerned about the overcard on the turn in this example because a 9 is not particularly likely holding for him. In light of this I would usually bet the turn and call down if raised except against passive opponents, against whom I would still bet and fold to a raise.

Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

Good points, thanks for the response! Guess it doesn't really matter which of the 3 hands you have, just fewer overcards to worry about with QQ/KK.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

One problem with using aggression factor to determine our action in this hand is that the turn bluff checkraises often come from people with below average to average aggression. It seems like this sort of turn is going to attract people who are selectively agressive.

Of course, there's probably no better way of doing it than how you just outlined it. I hate turn checkraises!

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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One problem with using aggression factor ...

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I agree and sense I don't have a very good handle on the interplay between VPIP and AF, I only use it in a very broad sense until I can get a handle on the player through observation. When I was referring to various levels of aggression above I wasn't talking about AF but instead a subjective estimate on my part of how likely the opponent is to raise the turn with a hand worse than mine.

Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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I have thought quite a bit about this hand and the more I do so the less I like bet fold whether the turn card is an A, a K, or a Q.

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A K or Q turn is much different from an Ace on the turn... two big reasons are

1. people are more likely to raise an underpair when the board is a K than when it is an Ace and

2. people are more likely to have improved with an Ace on the turn than with a K/Q--A2, A3, A4, A5 and AT are all likely hands, while Ks and Qs with a 2/4 kicker are way less likely

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

[ QUOTE ]
A K or Q turn is much different from an Ace on the turn... two big reasons are

1. people are more likely to raise an underpair when the board is a K than when it is an Ace and

2. people are more likely to have improved with an Ace on the turn than with a K/Q--A2, A3, A4, A5 and AT are all likely hands, while Ks and Qs with a 2/4 kicker are way less likely

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Hi Jeff,

Am I correct to gather from this that against an opponent with average or above average aggression that you would typically bet and call down if raised when a K or Q hits but bet-fold when an Ace hits?

If not, what would your typical approach be against these types?

Thanks,
Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

Normally I'd think the bet here is also good because it might get overcards that could river you to fold. But here any overcards just picked up a gutshot.

What about checking with the intent of chk-raising and folding to a 3bet?

Assuming he will 3bet an Ace, almost always, and very rarely bluff 3bet the turn means that he either folds or calls when you are ahead (assumes he would raise the flop with KK/QQ/AA). Costs the same and chk-calling down, and if he checks behind you at least feel good about betting a non-threatening river.

Hate to give a free card to something like KQ, but you do hold 2 of the gutshot outs.

Hmm, against an unknown a turn raise needs to be respected, so bet fold looks like the way to go..

NH.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

Would this situation change for you guys if the flop had two flush cards or if the turn put a second flush card on the board. In other words would the increased likelihood of a semibluff turn raise with a flush draw make you more likely to bet and call down rather than bet-fold or check-call?

What would your default line be then for A, K, and Q?

Thanks,
Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

against a total unknown it doesnt matter whether it's a flush card or not, i think i'm going with bet-fold an ace, bet-call down k or q.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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i think i'm going with bet-fold an ace, bet-call down k or q.

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Thanks, Wheelz. Is that what you think Jeff W was advocating above also?

Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

i would imagine so.