Follow up bets
 

Let's say we're in a large MTT (1250 people). The blinds are 15/30 and average stack size is slightly under 2k. Your stack size is 1800 or so.

You raise preflop in MP with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to 120.

Only the SB calls. The pot size is 270 T$

The flop misses you completely but you decide to make a follow up bet on a board that is likely to have missed your opponent.

Now, how much do you bet?

I personally believe that a bet of 3/4 to pot size is more likely to make our opponent fold. Anything too small will make him smell weakness and perhaps call or even worse raise you off the best hand.

My husband (also a good player) believes that it doesn't take nearly as much to take the pot down on the flop.

When making a follow up bet on a board that misses you and likely your opponent, how much do you follow through with and why?

All thoughts/opinions on the subject appreciated.

-Jeanie
xo*Kisses*xo @ Stars

Re: Follow up bets
 

It depends on the opponent and the table. I usually bet aboout 3/4 pot. Harrington says half pot and that may work in major tournaments where people bet half pot when they make their hand.

You want to make more or less the same bet as you would with the hand you are representing. Say you raise with KQ and the flop comes A77r. Then I would make a small bet to represent an ace a little afraid of a 7, but not worried about being drawn out on.

Also, I don't think it is good to automatically make continuation bets. It depends a lot on the board. You want it to miss your opponent and look like it would hit a preflop raiser. Not making a continuation bet does not necessarily give up on the hand (and giving up on the hand is not necessarily bad). There are all sorts of other ways to play it.

Re: Follow up bets
 

It definitely does depend a lot on the buyin and players. Although Harrington advocates 1/2 pot CBs it has to be a bit more than that to get any respect in lower buyin levels. For this reason my standard is 2/3, but that changes depending on table dynamics and stack sizes.

Re: Follow up bets
 

IMHO, a pot sized bet works well.

First off, a lot of times I WANT to take this down - esp. if the flop missed me - Who cares if people fold.

Regarding your husband's advice - in later stages as chips get more precious I'll lower the size of my raises and bets from 4xBB to 2 or 3 - (and at your level I might raise to 5 or 6xBB since it's online and everyone calls) - but small bets in the early stages - meh - work SOMETIMES - but not as much as in the later stages...

Two important things...

1. - Consistancy - the same bet size every time, whether AA or AK or 72 will help - you'll get more folders.

2. - Pot size and draws - if you suspect any flush or st8 draws a pot sized bet is important to get players out.

you bet 120 into a 270 pot and you're giving him some good odds (3.5-1) to hit the flush.....AND a lot of players will draw to that...and if they hit, and you can't let the hand go, it'll be +EV for them with the implied bets/odds if they hit.. - so make them pay as often as possible with pot sized bets when you suspect a draw.

RB

Re: Follow up bets
 

[ QUOTE ]

Now, how much do you bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

3/4 pot if there are obvious draws, 1/2 if there are no obvious draws.

I also be exactly the same if I nail the flop as I bet a lot.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Follow up bets
 

depends on the flop. Quite often now i check behind, as i would with an A92 flop. It stops them check/raising air, and means if they check the turn, i often take it down with a 2/3 pot bet.

If im going to continuation bet, usually 2/3 of the pot.

Re: Follow up bets
 

I agree that the higher the buy in the more difference it makes.

Are higher limit players more likely to fold to a follow up bet? Or are you more likely to get called?

Re: Follow up bets
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the higher the buy in the more difference it makes.

Are higher limit players more likely to fold to a follow up bet? Or are you more likely to get called?

[/ QUOTE ]

Higher limit players are generally much easier to bluff. Low limit players tend to be tougher and recognize a continuation bet for what it is.

Re: Follow up bets
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the higher the buy in the more difference it makes.

Are higher limit players more likely to fold to a follow up bet? Or are you more likely to get called?

[/ QUOTE ]

Higher limit players are generally much easier to bluff. Low limit players tend to be tougher and recognize a continuation bet for what it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding me right? At the higher buyins (say $100+), you will get check-raised after making a continuation bet about 75% of the time. You will get raised by air alot, and also made hands.

For example, you raise AK and the BB calls.

The flop comes 924. The BB has 10Js and checks to you. You bet 2/3 the pot. If the BB is a tough player, he will probably raise you here. He figures you for a couple of high cards, and if you have a PP he is probably willing to take that risk as it is more likely you have nothing.

In the lower buyins, people say "o well, i missed that flop, I'll fold."

Re: Follow up bets
 

I play mostly freerolls, and your last sentence describes it perfectly. In freerolls (and I think most low buy in events) many of the players are only thinking about their own hand. They're not thinking "ok, the flop missed me, but it probably missed everyone so any bet is likely to be a c-bet, so I can steal here". So a flop like 952 rainbow is going to be very easy to take with a follow up bet. That said, I still think its worth betting 2/3 of the pot...1/2 just doesn't seem to win it often enough.

Re: Follow up bets
 

JeanneJ,

There is not enough information to answer. Provide some example flops.

For example if the board looks like a str8 or flush you can bet 1/4 pot and that looks like an invitation-- suspicious-- and you can take it down with 1/4 if the opponent is a decent player who missed. So here your husband's assertion holds.

Paired boards are another decent example. If you can be first in to bet at a paired-board rainbow flop with 3 or less opponents in the pot, with a trash hand, you can often bet 1/2 which looks like a come-on-in, Ive-got-trips raise. Suspicious again. Decent player that missed cannot call.

Note that both plays are more effective with position. In your example you are last to act in a 2-way pot and its is implied in your example that SB has checked.

Re: Follow up bets
 

In my opinion, a standard continuation bet should be about 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot and that should not change based on the value of your hand, but rather the texture of the flop and how many draws are possible. There are rarely times that I see a pot sized bet as necessary.

Greg Raymer had always said that the best bet to pickup the pot in this situation is the absolute least amount that will get your opponent to fold.

Re: Follow up bets
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the higher the buy in the more difference it makes.

Are higher limit players more likely to fold to a follow up bet? Or are you more likely to get called?

[/ QUOTE ]

Higher limit players are generally much easier to bluff. Low limit players tend to be tougher and recognize a continuation bet for what it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding me right? At the higher buyins (say $100+), you will get check-raised after making a continuation bet about 75% of the time. You will get raised by air alot, and also made hands.

For example, you raise AK and the BB calls.

The flop comes 924. The BB has 10Js and checks to you. You bet 2/3 the pot. If the BB is a tough player, he will probably raise you here. He figures you for a couple of high cards, and if you have a PP he is probably willing to take that risk as it is more likely you have nothing.

In the lower buyins, people say "o well, i missed that flop, I'll fold."

[/ QUOTE ]

I was half kidding. On the whole, I think continuation bets work better against stronger players. Weaker players, typical of low buyin events, are likely to be calling stations. If they have something, they will call or raise you. Sometimes you have to make a followup bet on the turn to convince them you are ahead. However, some calling station types will call you down all the way with bottom pair or whatever.

Against stronger players, you have to make the continuation bet believable. You want to fire at an Axx, KQx, or low rag flop representing an ace, high cards, or overpair respectively. Stronger players are likely to raise or call with the intention of taking the pot on the turn if you continuation bet flops like K82,r or 77J.

Against weaker players, I would be more likely to cbet a flop that looks like it missed everyone. Against stronger players, I would cbet a flop that looks like it would hit the preflop raiser.

It also depends on how the table is playing. In online rebuys, between the rebuy period and the bubble, I would be reluctant to cbet or make any bluff.

There are different types of weak low buyin players. Online, you find a lot of maniac and calling station types. Obviously, a cbet works better against a weak/tight player.

Re: Follow up bets
 

The smaller the buyin the bigger the cb needs to be. As a side note try checking the flop when it misses you (and of course when it hits you) and make a move on the turn. Very
few people do this, esp. online, and if done correctly can
be very effective. A lot of the European players in live play employ this tactic with great success.

Bruce

Re: Follow up bets
 

I'm sorry it seems I'm always busting your chops Jeannie, but I'm going to again. The enitre concept of this thread is perpetuating a bad way of thinking about poker. In your random example, there are so many factors to be considered.

1) Your hand has showdown value. I'm more more willing to take off a free card and possibly even call turn and river bets with ace high when I have a hand like ace king rather than if I raised 97s and I whiffed. You should sometimes CB, sometimes check behind. There are spots when cont. betting is essential, and there are spots where it is no so important.

2) You are in position. You have better control of pot size in NL Hold'em when you are in position. Assuming you are out of position against an opponent, you reduce his positional advantage with larger bets. IE its harder for him to get tricky and float, or bluff raise, or make ballsy calls when you are betting full pot rather than half pot.

3) There are different flops. A flop like 239 should not be treated like a Q97 flop, or a 987s flop. You generally should be more likely to cont bet on rainbow boards with 1 big card, rather than all rags, or highly coordinated boards. When I raise AK and get called by a blind, and the flop comes 789 of 1 suit (i dont have the suit), I'm very much ready to check behind and give up.

4) READS! Poker is about playing the [censored] player---- there is no universal answer to your question because there is no default player. Ok, barring a read everyone is a default, but you should be able to get SOMETHING on a player. Reads in tournaments are so crucial, for situations exactly like these. You want us to answer a question in vacuum. Poker is not played in a vacuum.

5) Stack sizes. With shortstacks, making the decision to cont. bet or not can be very important, and fundamental to the preservation of your stack. If you have to cont bet for 1/4th of your stakc, you should definitely be considering how often your opponent will be check raising you. If you have a hand that has likely has 6 outs, taking a free card will have more value then if you raised a hand like 67s and you likely have 0 outs on a board like A83 if you are behind.

6) Your table image. If I am viewed as a [censored] maniac, I'm probably going to slow down. Seeing as how I usually am viewed as a maniac, this happens a lot.

Well. That was fun.