Making tough decisions easier
 

Generally the toughest decisions you face in limit hold'em are the ones where the EV difference between two lines of play is small. When there is a big EV difference the play is generally very clear....you have the nuts, calling is obviously right, and not raising costs you massive amounts. Or, you have no hand no draw, the play is obviously to check and fold, and deviating from the standard play is very expensive.

No, the tough situations are the close decisions. Where you have overcards on the turn and you have to decide whether or not to call a bet getting 8.5-1...when you are out of position on the river with a hand that is probably not best, but you can't check and fold...when you've got a pair and a weak draw and you are deciding between calling down and raising for a free showdown.

These decisions are tough. But there's a very easy way to make them easier. Just ask yourself a simple question.

"What hands matter?"

In a close situation...there will be many hands your opponent might have that simply don't matter...you will lose the same amount no matter which line you choose. If you are going to make good, close decisions in a short timeframe, you don't have time to go over thirty possible holdings.

As an example, let's use QTip's latest hand. Clearly there are a lot of hands in our opponents' ranges. But what hands really matter? Well, when you are considering the free showdown play, the only hands that REALLY matter are the hands that can three-bet you. (EDIT: assuming you can't fold to a three-bet.) Against the hands that can't three-bet you, the free showdown play is generally going to have a higher expectation. So in QTip's hand, the only plausible hands that matter are 66, 88, 99, and JT.

Then we go back to the action. UTG's flop check-raise doesn't make sense if he has any of these hands. MP's turn call is also unlikely if he held one of these hands. So we don't have to worry about getting three-bet, and so we raise. By focusing only on the specific hands that matter we've made a tough decision less tough.

So for those of you who "post better than you play," this is a technique that can help.

Will

Re: Making tough decisions easier
 

Good post on how to become a better hand reader. I'd also like to add sometimes I play solely by asking myself "How can I get villain to make the biggest mistake(s)?"

Re: Making tough decisions easier
 

Will,

This is an excellent post.

One of the problems with making decisions in poker is that that are often so many variables that it is difficult to account for all of them in making decisions. So half the battle is often simply figuring out an efficient and sufficiently-accurate way to model the situation. Part of this is considering what hands villain could have that are particularly relevant, exactly as you say.

Great post.

Re: Making tough decisions easier
 

Nice post Will.

I don't yet agree with you that raising is better, but I'm going to give the hand some more thought because of this post.