I think I know what he thinks...
 

I was taking a shot at the $150 again on PS, because I'm a donk livin the life. Been a while since I played one of these.

I had previously pushed into villian from the button when they were both below 7xBB. I had J2. He had Ax, and no one hit, he doubles through me to about 5k.

I'd imagine he thinks I'm a donk.

So, this hand comes up.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 (t10658)
MP1 (t5725)
MP2 (t14150)
CO (t1930)
Hero (t16818)
SB (t7785)
BB (t35455)
UTG (t15505)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t7735</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>

Hero??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: I think I know what he thinks...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd imagine he thinks I'm a donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is Button with A, T.
5 folds, Hero raises to t1800, SB raises to t7735

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something? I can't call fast enough here, esp w/ your stack.

1) good for your ability to steal blinds after this.
2) you usually will have the best hand.
3) if you fold, you will get played back at sooo often.

Re: I think I know what he thinks...
 

i think it's probably a call, but i'm definitely not happy about it. he should have a pretty wide range, and you're getting decent odds.

Re: I think I know what he thinks...
 

[ QUOTE ]
2) you usually will have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put his range at? I think he certainly can be ahead here, but i doubt it's more often than not.

Re: I think I know what he thinks...
 

His range is pretty wide. I'd say he might do this with any pocket pair and almost any two broadway. Throw some high suited connectors in their and I think you have his range beat by a narrow margin. Even if your 50-50 or a little worse you have the odds to call.

Re: I think I know what he thinks...
 

Its hard for me to give him a range, Chiefs would be more accurate cause he'd have a better read. But agaisnt some it could be as wide as any 2, and against others it could be something like any two 20s (BJ cards that add up to 20), any A, and decent suited cards.

Others i suppose it would be real tight, but I think givent the previous action that is doubtful.

Re: I think I know what he thinks...
 

I can't believe that everybody here leans toward a call. I think I fold this.

Him believing you are a donk is not enough here IMO. If he thinks you are a donk this is best exploited if you have a tad better cards than AT.

Odds, schmodds, they are very murky here and I do not think they warrant a call.

Edit: what's the pay out structure in those?

Re: I think I know what he thinks...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe that everybody here leans toward a call. I think I fold this.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

I think AJ is borderline.

Re: I think I know what he thinks...
 

I'm in the fold camp. AT shouldn't be a hand you feel good about risking 40% of your stack with. I know the argument is given your image, that he is more apt to push with mediocre hands. I don't think he is doing this with a random hand, I'd say AT-AK, 88-AA. Of course I could be wrong here, but I think folding and keeping your big stack healthy is the correct play.

Re: I think I know what he thinks...
 

There is an ante at this point, right?

If so, we are looking at
1300 (sb/bb/antes) + 1800 + 7735 = 10835
5935 to call

We need 35% equity to be neutral,

A range with 36% equity looks like
AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-ATo, KQo

I think his range is wider than that. Even against a AA-TT, AK-AJ (the worst possible range) we have 26% equity, which loses us 2xbb, which isn't the worst price to pay for protection on your blind steals.