Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

What sort of odds would you lay a person willing to bet you that there will be a triple crown winner in the next 20 years? For those of you who are unaware, there hasn't been an American League winner in 38 years, and there hasn't been a National League winner in 68 years.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

I'd ballpark it at a 60% chance that it does happen in 20 years. Bonds would have won at least one if he hadn't been walked 200 times or whatever.

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Well wasn't one of the main reasons Bonds's average was so high precisely because of the fact he walked 200 times?

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

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Well wasn't one of the main reasons Bonds's average was so high precisely because of the fact he walked 200 times?

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What does that have to do with his average?

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

The same reason it's easier to go 5 for 10 than 300 for 600.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

Huh?

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

It's easier to maintain a high average if you don't have a lot of at-bats to hurt you... if you go 0-5 during a game, your average will plummet, but if you walk 3 times, you'll only be 0-2. Isn't this one of the main reasons critics were pointing to that Ichiro won't hit .400? He racks up too many at bats.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

Actually a lot of Bonds walks were a result of pitchers not wanting to give him a good pitch to hit, which meant Bonds had to turn a lot of balls out of the strike zone into hits. Actually making his high batting average even more impressive.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

Plus, it's not like his average was a one-season fluke.

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I thought what was happening was that Bonds would just wait for his pitch. If he didn't get it, he didn't swing at it and walked. If he did get it, he usually got a hit out of it. I don't think Bonds went out of the strike zone very often.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

Well it wasn't a fluke but.... other than the .336 he hit in 1993, the highest he'd hit in his career before 2002 was .312. Then in 2002, when the walks really started to pile up, he hit .370. Then .341. Then .362.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

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Well it wasn't a fluke but.... other than the .336 he hit in 1993, the highest he'd hit in his career before 2002 was .312. Then in 2002, when the roids really started to pile up, he hit .370. Then .341. Then .362.

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Lots more going on in his career then than walks.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

Huh?

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

see bolded text.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

haha.... fair enough. But my only point I was trying to make was that when you're physically able to sit and wait on pitches (roids or not), and you can lay off pitches that are outside of the zone and walk a lot, it's less difficult to maintain a high batting average.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

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Well wasn't one of the main reasons Bonds's average was so high precisely because of the fact he walked 200 times?

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Average has nothing to do with the Bonds triple crown equasion. He couldn't win because it's impssible to lead the league in RBI when you are walked virtually every time there is an RBI opportunity. Losing those AB's doesn't help his average nearly as much (if at all) as it hurts his ability to hit HR's and knock in runs.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

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I'd ballpark it at a 60% chance that it does happen in 20 years. Bonds would have won at least one if he hadn't been walked 200 times or whatever.

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I'll take even money that it doesn't.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

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Well wasn't one of the main reasons Bonds's average was so high precisely because of the fact he walked 200 times?

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Average has nothing to do with the Bonds triple crown equasion. He couldn't win because it's impssible to lead the league in RBI when you are walked virtually every time there is an RBI opportunity. Losing those AB's doesn't help his average nearly as much (if at all) as it hurts his ability to hit HR's and knock in runs.

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I agree with everything you said. But I wasn't talking about his HR/RBI totals at all. I was just responding to Clark's contention that he would have won it if he hadn't been walked 200 times. His average was high because of the walks. If he didn't walk as much, his HR/RBI totals would surely have increased, at the expense of some batting average points.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

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Well wasn't one of the main reasons Bonds's average was so high precisely because of the fact he walked 200 times?

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Average has nothing to do with the Bonds triple crown equasion. He couldn't win because it's impssible to lead the league in RBI when you are walked virtually every time there is an RBI opportunity. Losing those AB's doesn't help his average nearly as much (if at all) as it hurts his ability to hit HR's and knock in runs.

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I agree with everything you said. But I wasn't talking about his HR/RBI totals at all. I was just responding to Clark's contention that he would have won it if he hadn't been walked 200 times. His average was high because of the walks. If he didn't walk as much, his HR/RBI totals would surely have increased, at the expense of some batting average points.

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Not enough BA points to cost him the crown that year. He had a massive BA lead and a miniscule HR RBI deficit.

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Hmm, I disagree.... 3 homers behind Sosa and 18 RBI behind Berkman (and also behind 4 others) isn't exactly miniscule.... but yea, his 30+ point lead in batting average was huge.

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Hmm, I disagree.... 3 homers behind Sosa and 18 RBI behind Berkman (and also behind 4 others) isn't exactly miniscule.... but yea, his 30+ point lead in batting average was huge.

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He averaged...what?...1 RBI every 4 ABs? So he needed to "only" walk 160 or so times instead of 200 or so in order to win it? That's miniscule.

Re: Baseball Triple Crown Odds question.....
 

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I'd ballpark it at a 60% chance that it does happen in 20 years. Bonds would have won at least one if he hadn't been walked 200 times or whatever.

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Wow, you make it sound so easy. "The greatest hitter since Ted Williams kinda came close to it, so it'll probably happen soon"