UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
Button had been tight throughout the whole game but loosened up a bit once ITM. I'd played an extremely active/aggressive game from almost the first hand, stealing his blind from the button or SB on numerous occasions. Questioned my action thinking perhaps I should be avoiding such big stack on big stack action (no matter how juicy that may sound) at this point.
Blinds are 200/400 Button t5820 SB t3230 Hero t5920 Hero has TdTs Button raises to t1400 Hero insta-pushes?? |
Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
There are only four HU hands better than TT. Unless you can think of a better way to get his chips in, push.
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Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
Indeed. I suppose settle for 3rd if he's got a higher PP or I lose a coinflip to two overs, but obviously become the overwhelming chipleader if called and win.
Can anyone provide a good reason for just calling and re-evaluating on the flop? Truth be told I didn't even consider flat calling. |
Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
I just ran some math here. If there's no chance you resteal, i.e. he always calls your push, and I put him on a range of:
A7o+, A7s+, KQo+, KQs+, 77+ You lose about 8% of the prize pool by pushing here rather than folding according to ICM. Which is a lot. So strike what I said before and hope someone more intelligent responds. Edited for clarity. |
Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
If he would raise and then call a push with any two, it's still slightly -$EV to you, according to my calculations. I just gave myself a headache.
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Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
The range you give him is MUCH too tight.
I insta push here. |
Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
[ QUOTE ]
The range you give him is MUCH too tight. [/ QUOTE ] Probably true, but I pointed out in my last post that if villain raised with any two and will call our push, it doesn't matter. The +$EV from pushing here comes if there's a chance villain will fold. |
Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
If it matters, the button called and showed Ks8s. His range was actually a smidge wider than I would have guessed and a TON wider than suggested by Kev.
The complicating factors here that can't be *completely* covered by ICM are my own table image and button's tightness. Based on both of our play throughout the tournament, I'd say he'd be less likely to raise on a total steal and he'd be more likely to think I'm coming over the top w/garbage. But it all goes back to the "only four better PPs" argument (tee hee). |
Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The range you give him is MUCH too tight. [/ QUOTE ] Probably true, but I pointed out in my last post that if villain raised with any two and will call our push, it doesn't matter. The +$EV from pushing here comes if there's a chance villain will fold. [/ QUOTE ] Math, please. This cannot possibly be correct. TT is 3:1 over any 2. The bubble is over. If there's no chance that button will fold and he will push/call with any 2, there is no difference than if he pushed all in from the button with any 2 and we called. SNGPT gives me +5% of the prize pool to call on that assumption. In fact, if he's pushing with top 10%, this call is slightly +EV. If we have any folding equity it is even better than that. |
Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
[ QUOTE ]
Math, please. This cannot possibly be correct. TT is 3:1 over any 2. The bubble is over. [/ QUOTE ] To quote Tigerite, ITM is like a mini-bubble. If Hero folds, stack sizes look like this: 6420 3030 5520 (Hero) (34.77%) If Hero calls and wins, stack sizes are 3030 11940 (Hero) (45.95%) Hero needs to win 75.67% of hands when he "calls the all-in" to break-even. Calling a push of any two with TT doesn't get him there. Is my math off? |
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