Party 200: set on a tough flop
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 10 handed) CP hand converter

MP2 ($56.70)
MP3 ($229.50)
Hero ($214.35)
Button ($147.15)
SB ($266.50)
BB ($189)
UTG ($150)
UTG+1 ($198)
UTG+2 ($427.55)
MP1 ($203.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1. UTG posts a blind of $2.
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $11</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $50</font>, Hero folds?


Good fold? For those who want to proceed with the hand, what's your plan?

Villian is unknown, I've been around for about an orbit.

Re: Party 200: set on a tough flop
 

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 73.0209 % 71.81% 01.22% { 3h3s }
Hand 2: 26.9791 % 25.76% 01.22% { Th6c }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.5420 % 29.09% 00.45% { 3h3s }
Hand 2: 70.4580 % 70.00% 00.45% { 7c6c }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.5918 % 59.68% 00.91% { 3h3s }
Hand 2: 39.4082 % 38.50% 00.91% { Ac6c }

UTG posted blind and checked, it's most likely that he has a random six or a fd (situation 3, he has both - and you're still ahead). If he flopped it with 67 then you are only 2:1 behind, but there is a good chance he is drawing. I don't think I can get away from this because UTG can have literally any two cards. I'm pushing, and I hope he calls.

Re: Party 200: set on a tough flop
 

Push it.

This is not the time to fold a set. You'll see two big clubs or an overpair here a lot.

Re: Party 200: set on a tough flop
 

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UTG posted blind and checked,

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Wow, I managed to play this hand and then post about it without ever noticing that he posted UTG. That does change things, doesn't it. Damn.

Re: Party 200: set on a tough flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

UTG posted blind and checked,

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I managed to play this hand and then post about it without ever noticing that he posted UTG. That does change things, doesn't it. Damn.

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Yeah, it makes it much easier to push. Even if he limped, I'm still not folding here, and the logic I outlined makes this +EV anyway, I believe.

Re: Party 200: set on a tough flop
 

Another possibility I never even considered is a slowplayed high pocket. I see donks going for a limp-3bet or a limp-smackdown on favorable flop with TT+. A $2 bet could very well be a donk trying to extract value from his made hand. I'd probably get stacked here with QQ+ (I'd have raised PF though).