A raggy hand at the right price: T3o?
 

Live 4/8 game at Canterbury. Very bad players for the most part, usually 6-7 to the flop, and fairly weak. My math in this hand seemed sound to me, but each call was pretty thin. Is there anyplace along the way I should have folded this (like preflop)?

Your Hero is in the SB, and 6 limp in. I look to my left and the BB is clearly not raising (he telegraphs everything). It's half a SB getting 15:1 odds at a table filled with crappy players (including me?) and I call, but not before I look to the BB and saying "you're not raising are you, because I have a really shitty hand." I figure I fold anything short of a monster flop.

Flop is JQ3r, not a monster. I check, three others check, and MP bets. This means he has a J or a Q, likely a Q. He's not real excited looking, and generally raises hos strong hands preflop. Two people call, and it's back to me with 11 SB in the pot.

I figure I've got 2 treys, 3 Ts and a backdoor straight draw. Even discounting the 3 Ts to 2 and the counting backdoor straight as only 1 out, I've got 5 outs. Nobody to my left looks happy enough to CR, so I call. One other player calls (does my math hold up here?).

We hit the turn with 6.5BB in the pot, and it's an offsuit 9, leaving no flush draw. I check again, MP bets, all fold to me. The T outs are no good, but I figure the OESD is worth a discounted 6 outs, and the other 2 threes are probably good.

The river is an 8. I bet, he looks very annoyed, and thinks a while before making a crying call with Q6o.

Edited for shitty counting on the flop.

Re: A raggy hand at the right price: T3o?
 

On the flop you have 3 outs for your tens, max. And those should be discounted to maybe around 2 because tens and threes on a QJT3 board isn't exactly the nuts. Also you have a one-card backdoor straight to a low end (not at all unlikely that you split if you make it) so it should be discounted quite a bit, IMO.

Re: A raggy hand at the right price: T3o?
 

I discount the T outs on the flop a lot more than 25%. I'd think about folding there with perhaps 4 outs. Discounting the no-gapper runner runner outs to 1, and discounting the T outs to 1 because even if you do hit, you'll have tons of redraws to hurt you. I still call on the flop I think, but it's close.

Re: A raggy hand at the right price: T3o?
 

I personally don't like preflop. Even getting 15:1 I don't think it's good enough with this type of hand. The flop is marginal, and is only ok b/c you're sure there is not going to be a c/r.

Re: A raggy hand at the right price: T3o?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I personally don't like preflop. Even getting 15:1 I don't think it's good enough with this type of hand. The flop is marginal, and is only ok b/c you're sure there is not going to be a c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's about the odds for 2 pair or better IIRC.

Re: A raggy hand at the right price: T3o?
 

I guess I would change it from "I don't like preflop", to "Preflop is very marginal and I personally wouldn't play it".

Re: A raggy hand at the right price: T3o?
 

Nice hand.

Re: A raggy hand at the right price: T3o?
 

I have no problem about your preflop call, I'd be doing the same.