Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

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Are you expecting calls from 97? A4? AK?

He's a good player.

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Expecting calls from 97, A4, 43 and perhaps AK . . .

But it really sounds as if this guy's pretty apt to bluff push w/ busted diamonds or air to represent 56, so I guess it comes down to if you think he's calling you w/ a hand you beat often enough to make a river raise worth it vs. the risk that he bluffs you out w/ a worse hand.

Seems pretty close against this guy. Maybe the idea of folding to a three-bet is a bad idea, because of the possibility he's going to try to push you around? So maybe it's better to either call his river bet or raise and call a push?

Also, the "strength" he shows kinda concerns me that he might have 56 and is looking for a raise from you. Kinda seems like a reverse tell, no?

Good post.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

I think this is a raise here to like 1200 or so and I'm not even sure if I could fold if he came back over the top. When you check the turn it looks like a draw, the river raise might just seem like a missed draw and he might call a raise with a wide range of hands. It gets kind of sticky if he puts in a reraise, and then I guess it depends if he might do this as a rebluff thinking you have a missed diamond draw without the ace of diamonds.

Betting the turn here isn't so bad an idea as it disgusies your hand more (more of a chance of being paid off on the river) and you don't have that bad a hand against a laggy player.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

This is a really good post Neon, and is why I think the hand interesting. I don't know that the choices are call or raise and fold to a 3 bet - I think they may be call or raise and CALL a 3 bet as you suggest.

I also think the dynamics of my turn check in combination with his crazy reverse tell thing makes the decision more interesting still.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

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The only reason that I wouldn't raise here would be that if I show that I'm not raising top two on the river in this spot, I'd be able to bluff him off any river I feel like unless he has the nuts. That just doesn't seem worth the extra $1K you could make here.

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its a bit of a tangent to the hand but i thought your comment touched on a somewhat interesting point. i think not raising here indicates that the hero may be unwilling to make marginal value raises. this is not at all the same thing as indicating hero will not bluff raise the river. in some circumstances this can make it easier to call a river raise because if you know its either the nuts or a bluff its pretty hard to make the nuts so that leaves a decent chance of a bluff. all the marginal value raises are not included in the range of potential raising hands.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

apart from the unpleasantness resulting from a reraise i think there is definitely value in a raise. unless its the case that you never bluff the hand has played out in such a way that its pretty easy for you to have no hand whatsoever. its also pretty easy for him to not have much of a hand. given that he ought to be able to recognize all this he may interpret the river action as you bluffing which would allow him to call with all sorts of hands.

the amount of money left in play makes things ugly enough that i can understand not raising here if he is likely enough to put you to a decision that your not sure about. each of you has a wide enough hand range that the possibility of the two of you being on different pages as far as what hands are likely can complicate things. what im getting at is could he have a worse 2 pair and think your raising an A and think he is reraising for value with a worse hand. this scenario may be completely impossible given how the two of you play, i dont know, but my point is im not that sure what he is likely to interpret a river raise to mean. this means im less sure how to interpret a river raise from him which makes the decision pretty unpleasent.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

dude. post more. seriously.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

was thinking the same thing. great posts.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

i thought i was the only one that thought about this. good post.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Great thread. Wish I could contribute. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

hey man,

as others have already alluded to, there's a lot to this hand that depends on info very specific to the dynamic between you and villain (what does he think of you, what does he think you think of him, etc.)......also important is not just that he's "aggro" or "tricky", but what his specific tendencies are.....

for example.....is he aggro in the sense that he likes to checkraise a lot with nothing on the turn?....in this case I'd agree with you that a weak bet might've been nice on the turn.....or, is he tricky in the sense that he might make some loose preflop calls, but then generally won't make a big checkraise without the goods?....or, does he like to bluff the river if you check the turn?.....or, is his river bet always for value?.....will he call a raise with worse hands?.....does he think you're capable of a bluff-raise?...you see where I'm going.....

stack sizes are somewhat an issue, but not really that much....reason being, I think you have more than enough left to make a river raise without being committed (i.e. - if you make it 1200 you could still comfortably fold to a push)...I agree with what CWL said about the fact that you do sometimes need to make some seemingly brave value bets against these hot shots and not just shell up and call when you have a strong hand......I disagree with him though about the range that villain would push all-in with after your river raise.....I think there's a very low probability that villain pushes with any worse hand.....even if he thinks you could have AK, he's also not a donk and he knows you could have three aces or the nuts, etc. so I don't think he pushes with 97/etc.......a lot of people need to remember that this is a live game and not online - players tend to not overplay their hands as much.....