Presto
 

30/3. Villian has been very tight so far. Nothing to reading except a lot of folding.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) converter

Button (t2350)
Hero (t1020)
BB (t740)
UTG (t650)
MP (t1370)
CO (t1870)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t650 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero???

Re: Presto
 

Philly, I fold this eight times a week. That's twice on Sunday [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Scuba
who is positive that you're dominated - but maybe a coinflip.

Re: Presto
 

[ QUOTE ]
who is positive that you're dominated - but maybe a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me!

http://muextension.missouri.edu/expl...s/g0196511.gif

-Gryph

Re: Presto
 

[ QUOTE ]
Philly, I fold this eight times a week. That's twice on Sunday [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Scuba
who is positive that you're dominated - but maybe a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG has only 650 left and has to post 100/200 blinds on the next 2 hands. I feel like his range of hands is quite wide.

Re: Presto
 

I think we should consider UTG has t(650). Blinds are 100/200. The BB will take roughly 1/3 of his stack. The SB will take another 1/3 of his stack assuming he loses both hands. I think he's getting desperate here and hoping to steal the blinds and going for another shot around.

That said, I think its a coinflip between calling and folding. But I wouldn't really assume he has a better hand than yours by an means.

Re: Presto
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG has only 650 left and has to post 100/200 blinds on the next 2 hands. I feel like his range of hands is quite wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're a victim here of not playing enough SNGs a month. I agree that your analysis here might be right. And, think of it this way, you only dominate 3 hands. But your ability to steal blinds going forward on the $33s on this level outweighs the coinflip at this stage, IMO.

Another very important fact to consider. Letting him steal these blinds, gives you folding equity against him on the very next hand, in which you can get your blinds back.

Re: Presto
 

I may have spoke too fast...

It is only 450 to you to win a minimum 950 pot. But, I bet if you call the BB may come with you if he has a dry A of any kind.

I think if you want to play this pot you have to at least get the BB to play also. Cause then you are getting some good pot odds to play. You have to realize that you are basically playing for you whole stack even though it is only 450 to you. If you lose you be left with 2.5 BB with them coming around real soon.

I think that if you can reasonably be sure that the BB may come with you I'd call.

If you aren't sure the BB will come then I would do this with less than pocket 9s.

-Gryph

Re: Presto
 

edited. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Presto
 

Philly, your question brings up many thoughts.

A. When to talk coinflips
B. CEV vs. $EV
C. Forward Folding Equity

I thought about your hand the whole drive to work (12 minutes). If you want to give me a hand range, I'll do the math for you. And as an added bonus, if you reply within the next 60 minutes, I'll throw in the math against any two cards as well.

Scuba

Re: Presto
 

[ QUOTE ]
Philly, your question brings up many thoughts.

A. When to talk coinflips
B. CEV vs. $EV
C. Forward Folding Equity

I thought about your hand the whole drive to work (12 minutes). If you want to give me a hand range, I'll do the math for you. And as an added bonus, if you reply within the next 60 minutes, I'll throw in the math against any two cards as well.

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

Dammit. I just wasted 15 minutes on the math when I could have had you do it. I'll post in a minute.

Why haven't I bought eastbay's tool yet?