Third Down Is the Charm for N.F.L. Turnarounds (NYT - Reg Req.)
 

Article by Aaron Schatz, one of the writers of Pro Football Prospectus. The article is a condensed version of their San Diego Chapter, which explains that teams eventually play the same on third down as they do on first and second downs, and that performance on third downs can be largely attributed to luck.

Use bugmenot.

Re: Third Down Is the Charm for N.F.L. Turnarounds (NYT - Reg Req.)
 

And buy the book, it's great, especially the OPE article and Ravens' research article.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Third Down Is the Charm for N.F.L. Turnarounds (NYT - Reg Req.)
 

nice self-plug [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

The book is a football junkie's dream. Go buy it

Re: Third Down Is the Charm for N.F.L. Turnarounds (NYT - Reg Req.)
 

(NYT - Reg Req.)

since its free, cant you just re post it? i am just wondering as i am not sure about proper etiquette in these matters.

Re: Third Down Is the Charm for N.F.L. Turnarounds (NYT - Reg Req.)
 

No. Just use bugmenot. It might take a while, but it's worth it.