turn spot
 

about 6 handed online. Haven't been playing long and nothing has happened worth noting so far.

Okish player limps utg, 32/17/2 guy I don't know much about raises in the CO (and for those that don't know what those numbers mean they mean he's probably decent enough but mb a little too loose esp considering he raises 'only' 17% of the time. Postflop he's probably about right aggressiveness wise...not that he doesn't play hands wrong, he could, I don't know.)

I call in the bb with A7d (originally wrote A7s...meant A7d)

Flop comes A97 with 1 diamond. I c/r, limper folds, he 3 bets I cap. Turn is a 2 of diamonds. I bet, he raises. 3 bet? call? (folding isn't an option) What if a diamond comes on the river..I would think go for a bet 3 bet in case he's raising for a free showdown. 3 bet for value esp considering I have diamonds as a back door if he's got A9 or a set? What if I didn't have diamonds?

Not interesting since this kind of crap doesn't come up that much and it's close anyhow or it's way obvious?

Re: turn spot
 

"32/17/2 guy" where's he sittin?

Re: turn spot
 

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"32/17/2 guy" where's he sittin?

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oops. CO. Fixed. thanks.

Re: turn spot
 

I 3 bet pretty quick here, as it looks like fastplaying has gotten you exactly the excessive action you were looking for.

Re: turn spot
 

I would 3 bet here, and call down if he caps.

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i'd 3bet, and be perfectly happy with him folding his two or three outer. or capping his hand against which i have 9-11 outs. lead the river on any non-pair diamond. maybe bet/call an A?

Re: turn spot
 

I do think its close between 3 betting the turn or just calling the raise. But since your opponent is not known to be overaggressive postflop. I would just call the turn raise. You, checkraised and capped the flop out of position, and yet hes still raising this turn. I would just call here whether I had a diamond draw or not.

Re: turn spot
 

this is a clear 3 bet. this guy will have AK more than often enough (and you will get paid off) for you to show a profit here.

the tough question is if he 4 bets the turn. but most players with his sort of stats (meaning they dont fully understand the game) slowplay a set a little until the turn so you dont need to worry about that too much.

Re: turn spot
 

how do you play AK if you were him. your real worries are A9 and 99. id definately 3bet the turn and call if 4bet.

on the river if you boat up with the Aces over 7s id go for the bet/3bet. but if you boat up with the 7s over aces then id bet/call it. otherwise check call w/o improvement after you call turn 4bet

Barron

Re: turn spot
 

i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close. if he's behind, he may have 1-6 outs, with 5 or 6 being most likely. so by just calling we are giving him probably around 1.5 bets in free expectation (5/44*13). if we are behind and he caps, we still have at least 8 outs, so we are giving up at most 1.6 bets (8/44*2).

Pretty, pretty close. pretty close. i think the the 3bet is correct though because 1. he may not cap and 2. raising is more fun. 3. (maybe most importantly) all things being equal, in OOP situations it's probably good to play hands hard as much as possible, to at least make one's opponent feel a little less comfortable with using his position in the future. IMO, metagame means a lot here.

Re: turn spot
 

3bet and then c/r the river when you get there.

Re: turn spot
 

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how do you play AK if you were him. your real worries are A9 and 99. id definately 3bet the turn and call if 4bet.

on the river if you boat up with the Aces over 7s id go for the bet/3bet. but if you boat up with the 7s over aces then id bet/call it. otherwise check call w/o improvement after you call turn 4bet

Barron

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If I had AK in the villains spot I would just call down. If a non lag caps me on the flop out of position on an Axx board with no flush draw I am going to respect that and call the turn and call the river unimproved. I think raising AK on the turn in this spot would be over aggressive. From BK's point of view, if the villain was laggish, I would definitely 3 bet the turn, but if the villain is not over aggressive postflop then BK should just call down IMO. I will also mention that without the flush draw, calling down is clearly the right move IMO, but with the flush draw it is close, i prefer calling here.

Re: turn spot
 

I have not read the other posts yet, so I apologize if this has been said. If you have diamonds I'd definitely 3-bet, call a 4-bet, and check-call the river absent a diamond, ace, or 7. If you don't have diamonds I'd probably just call his turn raise, and then donk-bet a safe river and call a raise. You pretty much are committed to a showdown in this spot, and if you 3-bet the turn and are losing to A9 or a set, you save yourself one bet that way (4 bets on the turn and 1 on the river versus 2 bets on the turn and 2 on the river) without giving him the free showdown if he had raised the turn hoping to get a free showdown.

Re: turn spot
 

"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

Re: turn spot
 

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"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

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i agree w/ mike... threebet fast.
the NFD draw makes this even easier... u have tone of outs vs 99, so no biggie.
if capped.. cryyyying call UI.

Re: turn spot
 

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"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

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To me this hand is more about logic than math. When a decent player to a expert caps a A97r flop out of position, his minimum here IMO is AK, and most of the time he will have one pair beat. If the villain is aware of this, he will not be raising this turn with a hand like AK. So On the flop BK has basically flipped his cards face up and told this guy he can beat one pair, if the villain is decent enough to understand this message, then BK should not 3 bet the turn IMO.

Re: turn spot
 

what i'm more interested in knowing is... if you get capped and river a diamond, is the best line to bet or checkraise? my guess is that betting is probably best since he won't give you credit for backdooring him esp with all the action you gave him on the flop and turn, so he'd think his AA or 99 or A9 or whatever would still be good and raise, where as checkraising may get him to think otherwise.

Re: turn spot
 

He can't have a 3 outer..well, he could if he had 43 of hearts or something...heh...but if he had AK, he would have a 6 outer as a 9 would counterfeit BK's A7.

Overall, I agree with Mike l's intuition and say that BK should 4 bet.

Re: turn spot
 

This is a really easy 3bet. The times when you are ahead (which is most times) + your draw makes this soooo easy imo. Im in the middle of a 300bb downswing in one of the shorthanded games I play though so what the hell do i know.

-Brad

Re: turn spot
 

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on the river if you boat up with the Aces over 7s id go for the bet/3bet. but if you boat up with the 7s over aces then id bet/call it. otherwise check call w/o improvement after you call turn 4bet

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This is a very good set of river lines. If you are 4bet and your flush comes you checkraise the river right? I dont think its likely that he raises again when you lead the third diamond, but i also dont think that he's 4betting many hands that check behind on the river.

-Brad

Re: turn spot
 

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my guess is that betting is probably best since he won't give you credit for backdooring him esp with all the action you gave him on the flop and turn, so he'd think his AA or 99 or A9 or whatever would still be good and raise, where as checkraising may get him to think otherwise.

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Thats funny b/c before i saw your post I posted that i thought that checkraising was best, I think that enough people fast play pair/flushdraw combo's on the turn that when you lead into a 4bet on the river when the draw comes in you get the chance to 3bet less often than you would like. Maybe im way off though. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

-Brad

Re: turn spot
 

I think this is a rather straightfoward cap. See it like this:(roughly) if X is the chance that you are currently ahead then 1-X is the chance that you are currently behind.

Then our equity at the turn is (let's ignore his outs against us for a while), lets say we have roughly 10 discounted outs. Then our equity is about: X + (1-X)*0,2 = 0,8*X + 0,2, i.e. if X <u>&gt;</u> 37,5% then we should 3-bet (roughly).

This criterion is easily met. I think it is strong enough that overturning principles (i.e. he might fold to a 3-bet but call a river bet or whatever) will not influence our decision.

Re: turn spot
 

"if the villain is decent enough to understand this message,"

he's not. that's why he's 35/17/2. he sorta gets the game but not really. punish him and 3 bet.

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so.. you have diamonds?

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so.. you have diamonds?

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apparently...
wht he couldnt call his hand Ad7d in the OP is beyond me.

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I 3 bet, call down if he caps. I checkraise if I fill up or flush on the river.

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"if the villain is decent enough to understand this message,"

he's not. that's why he's 35/17/2. he sorta gets the game but not really. punish him and 3 bet.

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BK's read on the villain is that he's "probably about right aggressiveness wise" Given this read, I would just call the turn.

Re: turn spot
 

I think I'm 3betting either way, but I'd sure like to know a little more about the flush draw. Do you have diamonds or not? If not, which of the flop cards is a diamond? It matters. If the A is the diamond on the flop, then a river diamond scares me a hell of a lot less than if it were the 9 or 7.

Re: turn spot
 

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so.. you have diamonds?

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apparently...
wht he couldnt call his hand Ad7d in the OP is beyond me.

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well yeah, that was gonna be my next beef. i have no idea why everyone doesn't use that terminology. A7d would work better than Ad7d.. one less character!

OK, [censored] SERIOUSLY...
 

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"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

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To me this hand is more about logic than math. When a decent player to a expert caps a A97r flop out of position, his minimum here IMO is AK, and most of the time he will have one pair beat. If the villain is aware of this, he will not be raising this turn with a hand like AK. So On the flop BK has basically flipped his cards face up and told this guy he can beat one pair, if the villain is decent enough to understand this message, then BK should not 3 bet the turn IMO.

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You should all ready Westley's post, it's spot on IMO. For those of you who don't understand, i'm gonna break it down Mike L/ style for you.

Villian bets flop: "I have 2 cards that i raise with preflop"

BK c/r's: "I have a piece of this flop or 10-8"

Villian 3 bets: "I probably have a big ace or better, but JJ-KK is possible so i can check behind and induce a ricer bluff"

BK Caps: "I almost always have 2 pair or better, but sometimes i am playing T8s like a nut because i only made $13 million last month"

Turn:

BK Bets "Ok, i'm not scared of your flop cap. You fold maybe 2% of the time. I am value betting your ass!"

Villian raises: "But i still have you anally raped! HAHAHA!!!"

So, call the turn raise. If the river is a 7, bet call. If the river is an Ace, bet/3 bet, and if the river is a diamond, bet/3 bet. If anyone disagrees with any part of my analysis, i want to know where.

Gabe

Re: turn spot
 

Why not donk the flop and try to trap the limper?

Re: OK, [censored] SERIOUSLY...
 

it seems like if the turn gets capped and we improve on the river a bet/3bet has a lower chance of succeeding, since leading the river after a flop and turn cap should make a two pair or set pause for concern (even moreso with the running diamonds). but if we just call the turn and donk the river a lot of hands might think we're just trying to prevent a free showdown and raise for value.

edit: sorry i guess this was said already in so many words. but if calling the turn will increase the likelihood a bet/3bet succeeds on a diamond river then i vote for call.

Re: turn spot
 

I call.

Re: turn spot
 

I think I 3 bet here and if he caps... call down unless diamond comes off... then lead/3bet the river.

Re: turn spot
 

Hi BK,

I don't think that the villain's turn raise necessarily means he has something better than AK. This is based on my assumption that your cap on the flop does not mean that you must have 2-pair or a draw. I assume that you would be willing to cap the flop and lead the turn with any decent ace, as you want to prevent your opponent from constantly 3-betting the flop and checking behind the turn to showdown cheap(er). This play of course covers those times that you cap on a draw trying to make him muck a hand like QQ.

Therefore, I'd expect a good postflop player in a game this big to be willing to raise the turn w/ AK. In light of that, 3-betting your big made hand + draw is the way to go. You prevent him from showing down cheap, raise for value, and have tons of outs those few times that he actually has you beaten. Also of importance, you send a message that you are going to punish him severely any time he tries to get tricky with you. This will hopefully make him think twice about making moves in the future, whether he has a hand here or not.

There are other considerations as well, in particular the game theory point that you have to sometimes 3-bet with a less-than-3-bet-quality hand in order to keep your observant opponents from saving bets against you. This is as good a spot as any to make one of those more marginal 3-bets.

-Eric