Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

Checkcalling twice feels a lot like Ad, maybe with a pair. I don't think you can expect a call very often on the river, maybe from AA or AQ. As someone else said, a slowplayed hand will usually bet the river. So the fact that you bet the river anyway tells me you have a very strong hand or (very unlikely) a three barrel bluff. I imagine you would often check the turn or make a smaller flush-pricing bet with a boat or quads so I think a small flush is more likely.

Until the river I would include JJ-66 in your range, charging the diamond, but the river push then becomes a bluff to try to get AdQ or AdA/KdK to fold. I don't think you get that fold often enough to justify bluffing when you have a hand with showdown value.

Edit: I like this kind of thread. Keep them coming.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

You lead out into a family monochrome pot against at least 1 player who likes to be tricky, so you have value, not a draw that you can be pushed off.

Villian calls: Nut flush or AA with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], small flush, set, pair and a diamond.

Turn: doesn't change much and you bet again.

You still have value and now your raise is stronger, so I have to put you on a made medium flush or a set, or TP good [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] kicker

Him: calling again!?!?!?!....Either nut flush or doesn't know what to do with AxA[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

River pairs the board-

He checks - same hands, if he has the nut flush he was spooked by the board pairing and is looking for a cheap showdown or may have given up with AxA[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

You - Push -hmmmmmm, I really don't think you push less than a boat here as he has played just like the nut flush, unless you have a rocksolid read he won't make the crying call.

You have a boat or quads and are tyring to maximize value.

I can't see you having a medium flush here and expecting a worse hand to call, pushing this river with a medium flush is huge -EV, no worse hand calls, and expecting a better hand to fold is too optimistic

I can't see you having a hand worse than a flush and expect a flush to fold....

I always get these wrong.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

This early in the tourney, you could have a wide range of hands that you would call a moderate raise with preflop: any pp (22 thru 99), and some suited connectors (T9, JT, QJ, KQ and maybe even 45, 56). Any monster hands would reraise (AA/KK/QQ/AKs). I'm not sure how you would play TT, JJ or AQ - I could make an argument for both smooth calling and raising. If UTG was decent, he has a narrower range for raising OOP, perhaps AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK/AQ suited or not. If he's a donk, then perhaps he's raising with air.

Your half pot bet on the flop could be a probe bet. It was checked to you so you may be sensing weakness. With only the button to act after you, the bet would clear out some of the field.

Your range now could include KQ, QJ, 55, 33, and maybe some medium pp's if your read is that no one has a Q or flush. UTG's check could mean a monster wanting to be paid (Ax[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x offsuit that's looking to draw. He did not make a continuation bet which may or may not mean anything.

On the turn with only one opponent that checks to you, you make a 3/4 pot bet, hoping to take it down now.

Your range still is KQ, QJ, 55, 33, and medium pp's. UTG's checkcall could feels more like a draw A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x offsuit. If he had the monster, there's no reason to conceal it since your now heads up. I think he would have checkraised if he had the flush or a set.

The river fills up anyone that had a set. UTG checks to you which means he's hoping you'll check it down to. If he had a real hand, he would value bet it.

Since you pushed, I don't think you filled up. If you did, you might have gone for a smaller value bet (unless UTG was a total donk that felt pot committed.) Your range is now KQ, QJ, and medium pp's with a semibluff in position.

UTG needs to have the flush (doubtful from turn and river play) or at least top pair to call.

Final analysis on hand ranges:

UTG - Folds all hands except flush or top pair.

MLG - AQ, KQ, QJ, possibly 55, 33 (doubtful), and perhaps 99-JJ.

John

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

Dammit. Too late to edit. In my post earlier I was thinking the board paired on the turn. So strike that line about the turn bet being smaller if you had a set. I think a set that fills up on the river is more likely given the correct info.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

You: 55 or 33. You'd reraise pf with AA, KK, QQ. You'd also have checked behind on the turn if you were drawing to a big flush (with an AQ type hand) because he will only call your turn bet if he has you beat, and you'd rather have a free shot at the flush if behind. Plus, if you're drawing and have a Q, giving him a free card isn't going to hurt much. You woudn't fear the board pairing on the river, because if he happens to have QQ there is no way he folds no matter how you play it.

Villian: AdQx, AdAx, KdKx. KdQx is possible also. He probably thought he had the best hand, but had a huge draw anyway, so he was letting you bet for him. On the river you're not going to call with a hand worse than his pair of queens (if he were to set you all in), so he checks, unsure of his move if you push.

I hope he decided to call you on the river.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

[ QUOTE ]
because he will only call your turn bet if he has you beat, and you'd rather have a free shot at the flush if behind. Plus, if you're drawing and have a Q

[/ QUOTE ]

He can call with a draw that's behind, and if you check the turn you may induce a bluff you cannot call on the river.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

The guy who likes to CR the turn is UTG+1, he folded the flop. Sorry for the confusion.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

[ QUOTE ]

He can call with a draw that's behind, and if you check the turn you may induce a bluff you cannot call on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hm....maybe. However, unless he's going to overbet the pot on a bluff, you can call easily since it's the same sized bet you were going to make yourself on the turn.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

[ QUOTE ]
Him: calling again!?!?!?!....Either nut flush or doesn't know what to do with AxA


[/ QUOTE ]

If a villain makes a play that makes me go !?!?!?!?!? I almost never put them on as narrow a range as you just did.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

I like villain for 99-JJ with a diamond. (9 hands).

When villain calls 1/3 of his chips at the turn he is commiting to the pot, and doesn't know whether he is ahead or behind. I think he would have asserted a Q++ (or better) earlier, especially if he had a diamond to go with it. I don't like villain's turn call if he has a pure draw like AdKx, then its not clear how many outs he has (some may be used, some may not be clean) It's also not clear whether villain will get paid off OOP if he makes his hand. With a medium PP Villain should call down 100% of the time on this river after calling the turn.

Hero's range:

Hero would probably reraise/squeeze BTF if he had a big hand against the loose UTG+1 call.

I think he has a more speculative holding like small connecting cards/gappers: consistent with hero being active. My crude range is:

15 ways 2 small pair w/ busted flush; busted str8
15 ways Flush
15 ways str8
15 ways set++
15 ways 2,4 (nothing)

Given hero's aggressive proclivities, he is capable of pushing the entire range.