Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

In reading The Theory of Poker, Small Stakes Poker and others there seems to be some ambiguity regarding Pot Odds (or at least it’s unclear to me). I had a couple of fundamental questions that I’m sure someone can clear up for me. The first is quite simple, the second is more cumbersome. Please help a new guy out!:)

First, do you include your bet in the pot figure? For instance, if the pot sits at $50, the bet to you is $10, and you intend to call (and close betting for the round), are the pot odds 5 to 1 or 6 to 1? In this case your additional $10 brings the pot up to $60. This is so basic, but I seem to see both methods mentioned in different places.

Second, when calculating pot odds for a call, and then someone raises behind you, are your pot odds thereafter calculated on a cumulative basis for that round? For instance, when it comes back around to you, and say you intend to call the raise, are the odds based on the sum of both of your calls? The Theory of Poker at pg. 41 seems to state pretty clearly that it is cumulative, but what about the argument that once your money is in the pot it’s dead and you shouldn’t consider it?

I can see a rationale for either approach. On the one hand, your earlier call is already in the pot and the only question at hand is whether to call the latest raise – which will almost always be giving improved pot odds (unless it was raised and re-raised once or more). This would lead to very rarely calling an original bet but then folding in the face of a subsequent raise in the same round.

But perhaps, TOP is just saying when making the FIRST call and you KNOW a raise will come behind then you should factor it in, in which case you may be advised to just fold on the first call. But are they saying once you are raised behind that you should calculate pot odds based on both of your calls (which would likely decrease pot odds), and thereby lead to more situations in which you might call a bet only to fold to a subsequent raiser in the same round?

Also, if pot odds are to be calculated cumulatively, then doesn’t this undercut the rationale that you hurt opponents behind you more if you raise right after the player to your right has bet (since subsequent betters have to call 2 bets at worse pot odds). This seems logical, however, if you calculate pot odds cumulatively, why would it matter if the original better was to your right or to your left when you raised the bet? Because even if the better was to your left and you raised when it came around to you, the subsequent better would only be calling 1 additional bet on that very call, but it would still be the 2 bets for the overall round.

Hopefully this is clear enough. These seem like very basic principles, but surprisingly, I can't seem to find crystal clear explanations in the texts I have seen.

Thanks much for any input,
Darren

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

1. Any uncalled bets that you have to call are factored in.

Thus if the pot if $50 and someone bets $10 and its your action you are getting 6-1 on your money (the $10 he bet is now part of the pot).

2. If there are players behind you, you may have to factor in the action behind you in your decision.

For example if you have the right odds to call 1 bet but not two, you need to be fairly certain no one behind you will raise the bet you are about to call.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

The first poster was definitely right but (maybe I'm reading this wrong) I think your own question kind of confuses something that needs to be cleared up.

You asked "do you include your bet in the pot figure? For instance, if the pot sits at $50, the bet to you is $10, and you intend to call (and close betting for the round), are the pot odds 5 to 1 or 6 to 1? In this case your additional $10 brings the pot up to $60."

It's not YOUR bet that is bringing the pot up to 60 but the uncalled bet that you have YET to call is bringing it up to 60. Does that make sense?

Like you said, if the pot is $50 and there's a $10 bet, the pot is essentially $60 (your additional $10 would make it $70, see?).

The $10 you have not yet put in doesn't count.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

As for the first question, what I meant was that the pot was $50 as the bet was to me. In other words, IF I call, the pot would then be $60 with my additional money. This being the case, are the odds 5 to 1 or 6 to 1.

It seems that you're saying, in this case, the odds are 5 to 1. Correct?

Thanks.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

[ QUOTE ]
As for the first question, what I meant was that the pot was $50 as the bet was to me. In other words, IF I call, the pot would then be $60 with my additional money. This being the case, are the odds 5 to 1 or 6 to 1.

It seems that you're saying, in this case, the odds are 5 to 1. Correct?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I don't know why this is getting so muddled (I'm not blaming you, I had a similar problem when I first learned the concept) but I'm going to try to clear it up here the best I can.

Let’s start preflop. Say 4 people put $10 in. Right now, the pot is $40.

Now on the flop someone bets $10 and you are next to act. Just take the $40 that was in before the flop and add the $10 the bettor just put in. Pot is now $50.

Now it’s your turn. You have to put $10 into a pot of $50, so the odds are 5 to 1.

So when you ask “IF I call, the pot will be $60” then no, you do not count it as $60. Whatever you have not yet put in the pot does not count.

Just tell me if this doesn’t make sense.


PS--I played at paradise poker yesterday for the first time and noticed that on the top of the screen they have a "Pot + Bets" amount. Checking that out might help you to see where you should get the figure for what is currently in the pot.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

Yeah, that's completely clear and it makes sense. Thanks much.

Any thouhgts on my second question? I know it's more complicated and cumbersome, but I was trying to be somewhat precise with it.

Thanks again,
Darren

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

[ QUOTE ]
But perhaps, TOP is just saying when making the FIRST call and you KNOW a raise will come behind then you should factor it in, in which case you may be advised to just fold on the first call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct. In EP you often have to figure in a possible raise behind so instead of calling $10 into the $50 pot it might really be $20 into a $70 pot.

[ QUOTE ]
But are they saying once you are raised behind that you should calculate pot odds based on both of your calls (which would likely decrease pot odds), and thereby lead to more situations in which you might call a bet only to fold to a subsequent raiser in the same round?

[/ QUOTE ]

Once you call one bet it's almost never wrong to call the second bet (barring a read such as he only raises with top set and I'm drawing dead with 2 pair or someone between me and the raiser might get tricky and 3-bet it).

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

I think you might already know this but I'll go through the first part of your second question.

[ QUOTE ]
…when calculating pot odds for a call, and then someone raises behind you, are your pot odds thereafter calculated on a cumulative basis for that round? For instance, when it comes back around to you, and say you intend to call the raise, are the odds based on the sum of both of your calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

Best way to explain this is probably just to take the example I used from the first question and extend it to having someone raising behind you.

As before, preflop there is $40 in the pot.

One person bets, and (as we just discussed) you call the $10 into the total pot of $50 for 5 to 1 (total pot now $60).

But after you call, the next player raises $10, so he makes the total pot $80. (the $60 from before plus the $20 more he just put in)

The original bettor calls the $10 more. Total pot now $90.

Now it’s your turn. You have to call $10 more into a pot of $90, which gives you 9 to 1 odds.

Your original call of the $10 is now simply an amount that is in the total pot.

Sorry, I don’t really want to tackle the next parts of your question because it’s been a while since I’ve read TOP. I’m sure someone else can answer it.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

Thanks.

This is precisely my confusion. What you are saying is if a raise comes behind you, then your pot odds would actually be 3.5 to 1 since you're putting a total of $20 into a $70 pot for the round (under your scenario).

This runs counter to what Keyser seems to be saying on his last post. His understanding is that the first $10 before you were raised is already in the pot and gone - so the pot odds would actually be 7 to 1 - an additional $10 into a $70 pot, despite the fact that you already put in $10 earlier in the round.

I'm not sure which one is correct.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

I see what you are saying, and I always figured this is the way to calculate pot odds with a raise behind. However, it appears to me that TOP seems to say otherwise. I'm not sure what is proper.

Unless I am totally missing his point, Bradley, who posted also, seems to say that under your scenario, the odds would be 4.5 to 1, rather than 9 to 1. (Since your total money into the pot for the round would be $20 into a $90 pot.)

This is my confusion. I'm not sure which it is, and this obviously makes a huge difference.

Thoughts?

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

Well the current odds are 9:1 but your "real" odds were 4.5:1 because the total for the round was $20 for a $90 pot.

So before you called the $10 for $50 you needed to tell yourself, "this could cost me $20 for $XX" so my odds are potentially worse than 5:1. But since you have people behind, when they just call you'll be getting 6:1 or 7:1 on your call sometimes too.

It's up to you and your reads on the players to make correct assumptions during play and adjust your odds somewhat accordingly. If you're at a super aggro table and in EP you should scale your odds downwards (worse pot odds) and if you're at a table of calling stations you should scale them upwards (better pot odds).

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

Darren, I have a question for you - have you actually played much poker? It almost seems like you're so weighed down with information from TOP, but no poker experience to relate it to.

[ QUOTE ]

This runs counter to what Keyser seems to be saying on his last post. His understanding is that the first $10 before you were raised is already in the pot and gone - so the pot odds would actually be 7 to 1 - an additional $10 into a $70 pot, despite the fact that you already put in $10 earlier in the round.

I'm not sure which one is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

To answer this question, there are two sides to the sword. You are asking if you should call 1 raise. The answer is, of course. Like you said, if you had odds to call the first bet (5 to 1), then folding now (8-1) would make no sense. New pot odds should be considered each decision, even if it's in the same round of betting.

HOWEVER...

You are only getting 8-1 because you've already dumped $10 into the pot. You're really paying $20 to see the next card, coming to 4-to-1 on your money. The only relevance to this second side is if you can predict someone raising behind you. This should make more sense when it actually happens to you.

Here's a good example:

Same situation as before, starting with a $40 pot. P1 bets ($10), you call ($10), P3 raises ($20), P1 re-raises ($30). Now you are to act, required to call another $20. Basic pot odds would say specify that you're putting $20 into a $100 pot, but I would probably assume that P3 is going to cap. Therefore, when it's all said and done, you will actually putting another $30 into a $120 pot.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

"Darren, I have a question for you - have you actually played much poker? It almost seems like you're so weighed down with information from TOP, but no poker experience to relate it to."

I've got some experience under my belt and I'm trying to sharpen the theory. This is just a fine distinction I was trying to clarify on a fundamental point since TOP was not entirely clear and people's understanding on the forums seems to differ. I just wanted to make sure what I've been doing is theoretically correct - better than just guessing and wondering.

Actually, judging by your response, the answer to my question is BOTH of the suggested answers I mentioned. This is not exactly crystal clear stuff.

So, it sounds like you're saying the pot odds are NOT really calculated cumulatively, since once you put money in the pot it is gone, HOWEVER, if you anticipate a raise behind then you should AT THAT POINT calculate in the added call you know you'll end up making. But if you get a SURPRISE raise behind you, the pot odds for that next call will just be based on that one call.

Is this correct?

Thanks.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

Thanks much. As I wrote below to bootswild, it looks like IF you anticipate raises behind, then you clearly need to factor that into the pot odds as you state above (known as "real" odds). But if you get raised from behind and had not anticipated it, then the decision at that point would be based on the "current" odds of 9:1 as in your example above.

I just want to be sure I'm correct in my understanding.

Thanks again for the clarification!
Darren

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

Ya that's correct.

Also, in a multi-way pot a raise behind on the flop isn't always a bad thing if you're drawing to a monster hand where you can anticipate multiple big bets (raises) going in on the turn or river.

So now that you've got this figured out, move on to implied odds (which is what the above paragraph is talking about).

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

BradleyT,

Thanks again. This is great info.

Darren

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

I am going to attempt an example.

Let's say you are playing $10/20 and in the Big Blind you hold 98s.

A Player raises from middle position, the small blind calls, and you call in the big blind.

6 small bets so far ($60)...

The flop comes A 7 5 ... rainbow, but none of your suit.

Now, the person in the small blind who is first to act bets into you. You appear to be getting 7 to 1 for a call. However, behind you yet to act is the preflop raiser which makes a raise behind you more likely. You should consider what this would do to your pot odds. If it is raised behind you and the small blind calls, you will have put in $20 to win $100, thus reducing your odds to 5 to 1.

If you knew it would not be raised behind you, then it may be worth it to call when the small blind bets the flop. You are a 10.75 to 1 dog to hit your gutshot straight, but because you could expect to pick up at least 2 big bets (4 small bets) you could call getting 7 to 1 immediate odds knowing you are getting at least 11 to 1 implied odds on your 10.75 to 1 odds to hit your hand.

Let's go through this example hypothetically...
Let's assume that you call the small blind's bet, it gets raised behind you, the small blind calls and you call. As I said before, this is the equivalent of getting 5 to 1 odds as you have put in $20 to win $100. The odds against you hitting your gutshot draw on the turn is 10.75 to 1. Meaning you will miss your draw 10.75 times for every 1 time that you do hit it. Let us assume that if you miss your draw, your opponents will bet on the turn and you will fold. And... if you make your draw you will win the hand you will get one big bet from each of your opponents on both the turn and the river.

So, the 10.75 times that you fold on the turn, you will have lost $215.00 (10.75 x $20).

The one time you hit your draw you win the $100 dollars your that was there from the flop, plus you gain 4 big bets from your two opponents $80, for a total of $180.00

That means over 11.75 hands, you lose an average of $35... giving you a negative expectation of about $3 per hand.

Thus with these assumptions, when you get raised in this situation... over time... you lose money. You'll wish that you had never called in the first place.

However, at the point in the hand after you called the 1st bet and it gets raised behind you and the small blind calls... then you must call the 2nd... because at that point in the hand you are getting 11 to 1 for a call closing the betting. Whenever you are getting proper odds to win the hand, you must call... if you don't you are losing money. So assuming you folded every time in this situation... you would lose $10 per hand (the original bet you called).

So to recap, you would make money in this hand if you knew it would not be raised behind you but could expect to pick up at least 2 more big bets.

If it was raised behind you, and you called, you would lose money for the hand over time in this situation.

And if it was raised behind you, but you fail to call the 2nd bet when you were getting proper odds, you lose the most out of these 3 scenarios.

Of course, it's hard to say what would really happen for the rest of the hand. But I think this example gives a general idea of the concepts... Although, I may have just complicated everything for you.

Hope this helps.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

Wow. That completely clears it up.

You calculate the pot odds based on the full anticipated round b/c you can then AVOID making the first call - which would have led to a losing situation anyway. However, if you fail to anticipate correctly, and make the first call, then you have no choice but to call the second, b/c while it has an overall negative expected value, it is the lesser of two evils since folding will be even worse.

I can't thank you enough for taking the time to illustrate this.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, it sounds like you're saying the pot odds are NOT really calculated cumulatively, since once you put money in the pot it is gone, HOWEVER, if you anticipate a raise behind then you should AT THAT POINT calculate in the added call you know you'll end up making. But if you get a SURPRISE raise behind you, the pot odds for that next call will just be based on that one call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Others seem to have answered your questions pretty comprehensively, but I just wanted to say that I think you've put it extremely well here.

Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy
 

Thanks. I think 'I am fish' explained the underlying theory VERY well in his post. That REALLY helped me.

What a great forum - thanks again to all who responded.