AKs Flop Laydown
 

Villain is quality, a tough thinking TAG. Perhaps even better than myself postflop. Likes to make plays, but I feel I have somewhat discouraged this tendancy. Also the size of the pot also adds an amount of protection.

$6-12 9 handed Live

Hero is MP2 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG calls, fold, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, BT calls, fold, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop (5) 10SB K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BT calls, BB calls, fold, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP1 4-bets, Hero???

Can I lay it down right here putting MP1 on KJ? I felt very strongly that this was his holding. Either that or 66. Or should I take one off and fold the turn?

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: AKs Flop Laydown
 

Don't fold yet.

You need to peel against KJ, and Villain also could be playing a big draw (like J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) this way, I think.

Actually, given the big draw possibilities, I'd consider calling again unimproved on the turn and river.

Re: AKs Flop Laydown
 

You think I should peel turn and river? Yeah the spades are out there, and JTs is a possibility. I did consider this that villain would bet and bluff a draw , and if I choose to call down I'm only getting around 4:1 on my money (reverse implied odds). Am I good 25% of the time? If he's on a big draw will I be good 25% of the time?

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: AKs Flop Laydown
 

What about reverse implied odds? It will cost me 2.5 BB to see this river. Even if villain is on a play or draw will I be good enough of the time to warrant a call down.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: AKs Flop Laydown
 

[ QUOTE ]
You think I should peel turn and river? Yeah the spades are out there, and JTs is a possibility. I did consider this that villain would bet and bluff a draw , and if I choose to call down I'm only getting around 4:1 on my money (reverse implied odds). Am I good 25% of the time? If he's on a big draw will I be good 25% of the time?

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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You're actually getting closer to 5:1, aren't you? (If you win, you also collect Villain's turn and river bets.) Plus, I think you need to at least see the turn, to try to spike an ace. KJ is mathematically 3 times as likely as 66, and we can't even narrow Villain down to just those hands.

And once you're at the turn, you're getting more like 6:1 on a calldown.

KJ and 66 is 12 combos you're losing to. QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, and Js9s is four combos you're beating.

I don't know. On some turns (such as a non-ace spade) I think you can give it up, but I would call on a blank.

Re: AKs Flop Laydown
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about reverse implied odds? It will cost me 2.5 BB to see this river. Even if villain is on a play or draw will I be good enough of the time to warrant a call down.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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Reverse implied odds are a factor. But you do get to see what falls on the turn before making a decision on that street. If the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls, for instance, I'm thinking it would be good to give up and fold.

Re: AKs Flop Laydown
 

You seem to be very concerned about the spades, at the time I was somewhat concerned but I felt that reverse domination and drawing dead, were what made me fold. Yes I did 3bet/fold. I'll only do it in extremely rare situations. But yeah I'm starting to think it was perhaps wrong here. Even though I was confident of my read.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: AKs Flop Laydown
 

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be very concerned about the spades, at the time I was somewhat concerned but I felt that reverse domination and drawing dead, were what made me fold. Yes I did 3bet/fold. I'll only do it in extremely rare situations. But yeah I'm starting to think it was perhaps wrong here. Even though I was confident of my read.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the flop fold, but I can make a case for it. Here it is:

Villain's 4-bet reduces the possibility of a big draw. I don't think the 4-bet eliminates the possibility, but let's imagine that it does.

That leaves KJ and 66. With KJs, Villain might've raised preflop. And KJo is only 7 combos, while 66 is 3 combos. You're getting an immediate 19:1, but spiking an ace will only give you a redraw, 30 percent of the time (if we can narrow Villain's holdings to KJo/66). You are drawing very badly, if Villain has 66.

In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

Re: AKs Flop Laydown
 

Ok, so this is a well playing TAG. Guess that makes him fold KJo here but call KJs. There only one combo of KJs possible. Other hands I think he could play this way: AJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/JT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/QJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/QT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/J9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is less likely, but still possible. I don't think he'll ever slowplay hands such as AA/KK preflop given the earlier action and he'll 3-bet JJ as well. 66? Not impossible, calling 66 in this spot at a good table is clearly fine. Your read seems good, I think this type of player folds KJo preflop most of the time.

Hands you're behind of:
KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/66 (plus 5 combos of KJo discounted to 1.5, and I think that's reasonable)
Hands you're ahead of:
AJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/JT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/QJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/QT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/J9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I think folding would be terrible. Really terrible, I think you're almost ~40% of the time here and even when you're not you have the odds to draw getting 19:1! I would probably check/call him down unless a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls. Depending on how tricky I think he is I might bet the turn to prevent giving a freecard, but if I think he'll keep fire with most his big draws I just check/call. He don't even have to fire at the turn very often with a draw for you to be correct to call, you're getting 11.5:1 and have 3 outs even if he has 2-pair.

Re: AKs Flop Laydown
 

[ QUOTE ]
And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos.

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In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

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I think I would need a good read that villain won't bet a big draw on the turn to be able to fold. In this case I wouldn't check/fold the turn, villain has been tricky earlier. It must be obvious for villain hero either has a big draw or paired a K. If villain has a draw he knows it not likely Hero has a draw and in that case he has to estimate how often Hero will fold a K if he bets a draw. My guess would be that villain knows Hero is a TAG and betting the turn with a draw won't win him the pot very often. Bet/fold?