10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

This hand is from a juicy 10-20 game. Most hands are rasied before the flop and called in multiple places by people with, well, with two cards.

UTG limps, folded to me in MP. I raise with A [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] . Folded to the Button who calls. SB, BB, and UTG call. 5 of us see the flop for 2 bets each.

SB is a total unknown. UTG plays very loose preflop, but pretty well post flop. I've only been at the table with him for an hour, but have seen him semi-bluff several times. BB and Button are very loose, very poor players.

Flop: Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet. Everyone calls.

Turn: [Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]

SB bets, BB calls. UTG raises.

What's my play? Any thoughts are appreciated.

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

Fold ought to be considered. Three players have put chips in, including a raise. 97% chance of a five.

Sounds pessimistic. But consider this: with this lineup you
have to consider a five.

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

Based on your assessment of UTG, I'd 3-bet here and hope he picked up a flush draw to go with his queen. It sounds like the kind of game where any flush draws or queens will call two. Maybe even nines....

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

Three players have put chips in, including a raise. 97% chance of a five.

I disagree, Mike. You don't think SB or BB are more likely to go for a checkraise if they have a five?

UTG definitely could have a five, but based on the read he has on UTG, I think it's just as likely that he doesn't.

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

Oof... I read that wrong the first time. Ummmm... that's a tough call (which is why I assume that you posted it). I think you have to fold here. SB and UTG have shown strength here. UTG could clearly have just picked up the flush draw, but he probably has quite a few outs to beat you even if you are ahead... and SB's bet looks like a 5 to me. I think you are drawing here, and you don't have outs to continue.

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

Your thinking is pretty close to what mine was at the time. I don't like the idea of calling at all. I figured it was raise or fold time.

I think UTG could have a relatively wide range of hands here. Like you said, a flush draw to go with his Q, or even a flopped 2 pair (Q's and 9's) that he waited till the turn to raise.

I was actually more worried about the SB suddenly coming to life and leading into the field on the turn.

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

"with this lineup you have to consider a five"

That is true. The BB in this hand (who just called SB's turn bet) could literally have any two cards at any time. I don't think he has a 5 here though. I didn't include it in my original post, but I think he would have raised SB's bet with a 5.

UTG also played loose enough to have a 5.

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

I was just going to reply to your original post saying that I hated the idea of calling when you changed it. I agree that SB's bet looks like a 5, I'm glad I'm not the only one.

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

Kindly ask the dealer if you can exchange your two aces for two queens. Then all is well.

PokerPrince

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 

"Discretion is the better part of valor"