AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

SB is complete unknown. Only second hand at table.

UTG+1 is an absolute muppet. Massive donator and has reloaded twice. He's on my buddy list for ever.

MP2 has moved up to 2/4 recently (along with me). I used to play with him a lot at 1/2. He was always loose and pretty aggressive preflop. He's tightened up a little and overcompensated on preflop aggression. He was always very solid post flop and demonstrated ability to put moves on here and there. So, not a donk.



Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (11 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="green">Hero ???</font>,


This hand has two decisions with many important concepts (IMO).

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

i would call this hoping to be able to raise SB's turn bet. i wish the non flush card was the ace, but so be it.

also what's going on in my mind at this point in the hand is that i could very well not show this down.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

i'd raise the flop hoping that everyone calls so there is even more money when I make my boat on the turn.

If I didn't know I was going to boat up then I like miles line of calling and then popping the turn to protect my hand.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

I think you call here.

If you raise here, UTG+1 is getting 9.5 to 1 to call (2 sb into 19 sb) and MP1/MP2 are getting even better odds if others call. This means that even with only 4-5 outs, they are getting the right odds so Tens and Kings are going to call. And as such your hand is still not protected. With a raise, going to the turn the pot is 10.5BB or larger, with a call its 10.5BB

On the turn, I think you can fold to a non-diamond K or T and start raising away with an A or J hitting. With a diamond turn I would call down the turn. With a blank turn, I would hope sb bets out and him raise to get Ks and Ts out. (2 BB into a 13.5 BB pot or 6.25 to 1 to call). If the sb doesn't bet out, if you raise, the Ks and Ts are still getting odds to call. So I'm not sure what to do here.

If you raised the SB on the turn, I think I call down the river on any non-diamond (if you didnt hit your house or back door flush).

This is my first hand analysis on this board, so if I did anything wrong tips would be nice. Thanks!

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you call here.

If you raise here, UTG+1 is getting 9.5 to 1 to call (2 sb into 19 sb) and MP1/MP2 are getting even better odds if others call. This means that even with only 4-5 outs, they are getting the right odds so Tens and Kings are going to call. And as such your hand is still not protected. With a raise, going to the turn the pot is 10.5BB or larger, with a call its 10.5BB

On the turn, I think you can fold to a non-diamond K or T and start raising away with an A or J hitting. With a diamond turn I would call down the turn. With a blank turn, I would hope sb bets out and him raise to get Ks and Ts out. (2 BB into a 13.5 BB pot or 6.25 to 1 to call). If the sb doesn't bet out, if you raise, the Ks and Ts are still getting odds to call. So I'm not sure what to do here.

If you raised the SB on the turn, I think I call down the river on any non-diamond (if you didnt hit your house or back door flush).

This is my first hand analysis on this board, so if I did anything wrong tips would be nice. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds good to me, except I would raise a diamond turn.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

Would you all do the same if Hero had a set???

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

Probably not since I have more outs if I'm not ahead, and can redraw against a flush more often.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

I think wait until the turn to raise. The pot has 17 bets in it and if you 3 bet there'll be 19 - only forcing others to call 2. Gutshots can call.

Raising on the turn will only give people 6:1 or a little more dpeending on how many are in.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

Why is everybody assuming that SB will lead the turn?

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

SB will lead the turn if Hero calls. Now if Hero 3-bets here than we have a whole different situation.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

I would call then reraise if the turn is a blank card to test his hand. If I get reraised back again, I'll call it down but I would feel like I'm beat

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

To all the people who want to wait for the turn, what are you putting SB on?

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

An unknown SB has a few hands here, some possiblities are AQ or AJ(less likely since you hold one of each), KT for the flopped straight, a set, or a flush draw.

AQ is a decent possibility
Flopped straight is also well within an average 2/4 players hand to call pre-flop in the sb, but most qould slowplay to the turn.

A set is unlikely since he probably would have 3-bet with QQ or AA and you hold an Ace and Jack.

A flush draw is also possible and people love to CR flush draws in mutli-way pots.

Considering all of this I'm STILL not sure what we should do here. I think flat calling the flop and raising a blank on the turn is correct here, if we get 3 bet on the turn by the SB that sucks but we'll have to call down.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

I would raise while I was ahead. Someone is chasing the flush with all those callers in there. Ergo I wouldn't want to raise the turn if a diamond hit. If you are beat you'd also find out if someone 3 bets it.

Don't know if that's helpful, but that's what I'm thinking.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

The SB will generally NOT lead the turn if hes on the flush draw and misses. If the SB bets out a diamond turn I think we're probably behind and should NOT raise. At this point he probably has the straight, set(still semi-unlikely IMHO) or the made flush.

I'm not worried about UTG+1 as he could have anything as you say, but I am also worried about MP2. If he's decent he needs some type of hand to be calling here, possibly KQs, a small flush draw, or maybe T9s for the openender. Is he the type to call a raise here pre-flop with a weak ace or suited connectors? or does he have reasonable pre-flop cold-calling standards?

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

Having only completed and being an unknown, I put him on a bad ace, QJ, or any two diamonds (including or not including the king). AQ is a possibly, but I don't give him credit for it by only completing.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

I'm genuinely puzzled as to why anyone wouldn't 3-bet here?

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

[ QUOTE ]
SB is complete unknown. Only second hand at table.

UTG+1 is an absolute muppet. Massive donator and has reloaded twice. He's on my buddy list for ever.

MP2 has moved up to 2/4 recently (along with me). I used to play with him a lot at 1/2. He was always loose and pretty aggressive preflop. He's tightened up a little and overcompensated on preflop aggression. He was always very solid post flop and demonstrated ability to put moves on here and there. So, not a donk.



Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (11 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="green">Hero ???</font>,


This hand has two decisions with many important concepts (IMO).

[/ QUOTE ]

Just keep betting. SB probably has a flush + gutshot here more than he has AQ or a set.

I'd 3 bet, call a cap, raise a non diamond non K, T turn.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

I'm not sure of this Harv, but how often to you think we need to be ahead to 3-bet here. Should we be 3-betting even if we think we might be behind here? The only hand the SD reasonably check-raises on this flop that we beat is a flush draw or possibly QJ.

I guess what I'm saying is we don't need to protect our hand against the people behind us if the small blind has us beat.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand the SD reasonably check-raises on this flop that we beat is a flush draw or possibly QJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Because we have zero information on the SB, we can't say that. Even a somewhat reasonable player might c/r with AK, KQ/KJ (w/ K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), or T9, in addition to the hands you mentioned. A poor player could c/r with AT or a weaker ace, a misplayed KK, KJ/QT/JT, or some horribly bad bluff attempt.

With the pot size so big, we are clearly continuing with this hand--with the exception of an unlikely AA, no matter what SB has if he's ahead of us, we have enough outs to continue when you factor in the backdoor draws (one to a chop with broadway on the board). There is therefore no reason to allow the other players to continue cheaply with hands which could improve to win the pot (i.e. KQ) or with cards which could take away our own outs (i.e. K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]). Plus, we have a rabid calling station to our right who will gladly call multiple bets unprofitably.

I'm not slowing down here unless SB caps the flop &amp; leads into me on the turn as well (and I don't improve on the turn).

And I seriously think SB is check/raising with a draw here at least as often as he is with a better made hand.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

Since we have zero information on the small blind we must assume he acts in a way consistant with your average 2/4 player, which is to say a CR on this flop means straight, set, two pair, or flush draw in my experience. I just think we need to be ahead more often than not to profitably 3-bet this flop. And I'm just not sure if that is the case. Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

I guess what I'm saying is if the SB has us beat we're drawing to 2 or 4 outs and a small chance at the broadway chop or backdoor flush. Either way if we're beat by the SB it pretty much doesn't matter what the players behind us have since we need to improve to the boat to win, and we'd want them to stay in to build the pot.

Ok here's the question I don't think I know the answer to, If we believe the sb has us beat more often then not is it still correct to 3-bet the flop? (I'm not saying he does or doesn't have us beat, I just want to know how often we have to be ahead to make this correct given the size of the pot)

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since we have zero information on the small blind we must assume he acts in a way consistant with your average 2/4 player, which is to say a CR on this flop means straight, set, two pair, or flush draw in my experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Regardless of the amount of information we have, I think we can significantly discount a set here.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

Yes a set is very unlikely. but it is one of the few hands amd average SB will have when Check-raising 4 people on the flop.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm genuinely puzzled as to why anyone wouldn't 3-bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm definately with Harv here. We seem to really be de-valuing our hand at the moment.

I actually think three betting does offer a bit of protection because the intial callers that called the first flop bet may fold before calling two others.

Now I'm sure we could argue whether they would be correct or incorrect to do so - the fact of the matter is that they do at times.

Current sets seem unlikely since they probably would have put in another round of bets PF. If SB flopped a nutter for the time being - he's passing up a good opportuinity for a larger CR on a later street - so I'd discount a flopped straight as well.

Our worry is the Flush draw - but if they (the players after me) want to put in two more - so be it. I've still got a 6 outs to a monster, and without even doing the sims, intuitively I know I've got a large enough hand equity to push here.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

Waiting for the turn is a VALUE play and I see it applied to situations like this incorrectly a lot.

By raising the turn, a gutshot draw is the only hand that Hero can and wants to fold.
If there is a gutshot out there, we can't protect against it on the flop.
When a safe card falls on the turn, the gutshot holds about 8% equity. The value in folding the gutshot is having that equity donated to Hero.
Hero's equity (if ahead) is likely 50+%. So the value of folding the gutshot =
8%*50%*11.5BB
= .46BB

So Hero gains .46BB when he folds a gutshot on the turn. Lets say that Hero folds all Kings and all Tens, by which he doubles the amount of equity gained to .94BB or ~1BB.

Now what are the chances that Hero folds every K or every T with a raise. Not to mention the chance that SB will lead the turn again. Who knows?

But if we give the VERY generous estimate that the combination that SB leads the turn and that Hero can fold every gutshot happens 80% of the time - the value to Hero = ~.8BB .

Now in order for that to have/be of VALUE, this figure (.8BB) must exceed the value of raising the flop.
If we estimate 40% equity for Hero on the flop, he only has to be called in two spots for the value of a flop raise to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

Not to mention the times he is called in more spots and when SB re-raises with a worse hand (ie.FD).

Waiting for the turn in this hand is not the best option IMO.

This is the first concept I wanted to discuss with this hand.

Waiting for the turn is for hands whose equity is unclear and likely much lower than this hand - ie. 1 pair hands.

But the common misconception is that waiting for the turn is to fold Gutshots.
Yes. Partly. But it is also to fold hands like bottom and middle pair as well. These hands will generally have 5 outs against Hero (1pr hand) and are MORE dangerous to Hero than a 4 out gutshot. For each of these hands folded, Hero's hand will gain in value by ~10% in equity. Well worth the trade off in lost flop value.

In this case, Hero has value ADDED rather than lost when middle and bottom pair hands call.
IMO. There is way too much value and way too much overlay to wait til the turn.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

In my opinion this is not a case of waiting until the turn to raise to protect my hand. I believe the real question lies in how often are we ahead given a reasonable( ie. Average) small blind. If we are ahead 50% of the time here, re-raising is a no brainer. If we're behind the small blind to a flopped straight, set or bigger two pair then re-raising does nothing for us, since in those cases we have 2 or 4 outs.

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

[ QUOTE ]
Now in order for that to have/be of VALUE, this figure (.8BB) must exceed the value of raising the flop.
If we estimate 40% equity for Hero on the flop, he only has to be called in two spots for the value of a flop raise to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't check your other numbers, but I'm preety sure this is off. First of all I think you confused BB with SB... and also I think you are forgetting that you dont have 100% equity in the bet that you are putting in. If we have 40% equity against two callers, Hero only gains (.4)(3) - 1 = .2 SB or .1 BB

Re: AJo......Stage 1 of play along
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now in order for that to have/be of VALUE, this figure (.8BB) must exceed the value of raising the flop.
If we estimate 40% equity for Hero on the flop, he only has to be called in two spots for the value of a flop raise to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't check your other numbers, but I'm preety sure this is off. First of all I think you confused BB with SB... and also I think you are forgetting that you dont have 100% equity in the bet that you are putting in. If we have 40% equity against two callers, Hero only gains (.4)(3) - 1 = .2 SB or .1 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you are correct. I exchanged sb for BB because they are calling 2sb after Hero raises but you are correct they are only calling an additional 1sb over what they would if Hero waited. And yes I did overlook the investment on Hero's behalf in the raise.

But there are a number of equalising factors which make the principle still hold true.

1. The equity of a naked gutshot on the turn is closer to 6% due to the presence of the flush draw.
2. The chance that villians hold JUST a gutshot and are likely to fold them is grossly overexaggerated
3. If one villian holds KQ (and doesn't fold) and another holds a naked K (and does fold) Hero has actually lost .5BB by folding the gutshot. Along with all the hands that Hero has crushed that would have called a single turn bet.

4. The amount of times that SB leads this turn is another % I grossly overestimated in an attempt to exaggerate the point (which has slightly backfired)

Thankyou for pointing this out. EV calculations (the correct versions) are still relatively new to me.

However, the value of waiting for the turn to raise is significantly reduced when Hero holds anything more than a single pair.

Bottom line -
Value of raising flop&gt;Value of waiting for the turn.