Re: Hypothetical Gambling Situation
 

Monte Hall is confusing, because it's only after one switch.

A better way to visualize it is if there were a million doors. We stick with door #1 while Monty eventually opens up every door, save one. Now which is more likely to have the car, the door you picked at random out of a million, or the one Monty has been avoiding for 999,998 door openings?

Re: Hypothetical Gambling Situation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Monte Hall is confusing, because it's only after one switch.

A better way to visualize it is if there were a million doors. We stick with door #1 while Monty eventually opens up every door, save one. Now which is more likely to have the car, the door you picked at random out of a million, or the one Monty has been avoiding for 999,998 door openings?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you just made me hundreds of dollars in bar bets. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

(The problem has always been convincing the losing party after the bet, that they are wrong. But this will make it pretty obvious.)

So, thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]