Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

The Cast:

MP2 is a smart, but not really tricky, TAG. Button bounces back and forth between TAG and LAG, but plays well post flop. He's tricky, deceptive, and likes to slowplay big hands. The rest of the field is unimportant.

UTG and UTG+1 both limp. MP2 raises. MP3 cold cals. c/o calls. Button is involved in a conversation with a railbird. The dealer gets his attention, and he tries to call one bet. After being informed it was raised, he calls both cold. I call in the SB w/ 78 clubs. BB calls. 8 to the flop.

Flop:

8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check. All check to MP2 who bets. Folded to button who calls. I call. I figured this to be one of those "reverse implied odds spots" and wanted to see the turn card before I went crazy.

3 callers behind me. 6 to the turn

Turn

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check. Checked to the button who bets. I c/r. Folded to MP2 who takes forever and then calls (obvious at this point that he had a flush draw, not sure which one). button 3 bets...gulp. I call knowing I need to improve.

The river is the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Checked to the button who bets. I start thinking about what the button might have 3 bet the turn with, that matched with his preflop play. I came up with a set, two pair (probably 45), or maybe a suited King.

I look at this monstrous pot, knowing I have MP2 beat, and call hoping beyond all hope that he'll show me a counterfeited 45.

Thoughts?

lf

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

Is this hand really that standard? Or am I just boring...

lf

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

Given the way the button got in the hand and that can now beat all of 85, 84, and 54, not to mention the rare big draw desperation bluff, I think a crying call is reasonable.

Good luck.
Eric

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

i dont think your hand is a "reverse implied odds" type hand in this situation since you have a gutshot. i think leading into the raiser is the better play, but once it comes back to you i think checkraising is appropriate if there are players behind you. your hand is ahead here at least 40% of the time and if its not then youre sporting 9 outs.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

well you blew this hand by not check raising the flop. given where you are action, i think you have to fold the river.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think leading into the raiser is the better play

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Even though there are 3 players between you and the raiser, you can use the threat of a possible raise, plus your implied strength of leading into this big field to maybe convince them to fold overcards for one tiny bet. It could also maybe happen that raiser decides not to bet overcards and it gets checked around, not good.

[ QUOTE ]
your hand is ahead here at least 40% of the time and if its not then youre sporting 9 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

This might be really stupid, but...

Are you _sure_ MP2 has a flush draw? As the preflop raiser, I would expect him more often to have turned up here with some crappy made hand. Is it possible that he just can't get away from something like QQ - TT?

The added suckage of being possibly beat by the third man makes me want to raise or fold. And this hand is really quite bad, even in this big pot. So I guess I fold.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you _sure_ MP2 has a flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said in the OP, MP2 was a smart TAG. There's no way he's checking a made hand on the turn. Its impossible. If he has QQ, JJ, or TT he certainly doesn't call two cold on the turn. His hand was of no consequence on the river.

lf

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

Bet or fold...calling is weak...Sounds like you are trying to rationalize a bad call in a big pot, that’s usually how big pots get built, by bad calls.

If you wanted to make a "play" at this pot, instead of being a lemming, you should have made that decision on the flop.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet or fold...calling is weak...Sounds like you are trying to rationalize a bad call in a big pot, that’s usually how big pots get built, by bad calls.

If you wanted to make a "play" at this pot, instead of being a lemming, you should have made that decision on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This has got to be one of the most worthless posts I've ever read.

Why on earth would I raise the river? Cleary i'm not getting a better hand to fold, and probably will not get called by a worse hand.

I understand that the flop could have played differently, but I wasn't certain a lead would get raised, and there were a lot "scary" turn cards.

I think now the play on the flop is to either lead, or check/raise or check/fold depending on where the bet comes from.

In the future, try being specific when you post, and actually give the "why" to what you write. This is strategy forum, based on discussion, but blanket statements of unproven opinion.

lf