Middle set from the BB...too much action?
 

PP 200NL 6max. I've been sitting for awhile, mostly to play against the super bad guy to my right. Guy to my left, villain in this hand, seems pretty tight and hasn't gotten out of line.

Converter is not working so I added the turn action myself.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($445.91)
Button ($201.40)
SB ($354.57)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($203.65)</font>
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($342.15)</font>
MP ($77.97)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($6) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, UTG calls $6, SB folds.

Turn: ($18) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Hero bets $15, UTG raises to $45, Hero raises to $100, UTG raises all in, Hero calls.

After this action, how often can I expect to be ahead here, and would you play the hand any differently?

All comments welcome.

The Doc

Re: Middle set from the BB...too much action?
 

due to your comments at the beginning of the hand "villain in this hand, seems pretty tight and hasn't gotten out of line" i think your laying it after his raise. But after the four bet here i can guarantee your drawing to your FH outs for the river. I really doubt he would make this play with 2 pair.

Re: Middle set from the BB...too much action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
due to your comments at the beginning of the hand "villain in this hand, seems pretty tight and hasn't gotten out of line" i think your laying it after his raise. But after the four bet here i can guarantee your drawing to your FH outs for the river. I really doubt he would make this play with 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he seemed pretty tight and he limped UTG. So I'm eliminating hands like 7T and QT from his range. Thus I think the hand possibilities are AA, 88 and AJ (maybe even Ah Jh or Ah xh). I'm destroying that range except for one hand.

Agree or disagree?

The Doc

Re: Middle set from the BB...too much action?
 

Agree.

Re: Middle set from the BB...too much action?
 

I also thought about just calling his turn raise and playing poker or going for a big c/r on the river. However, given that board texture, there are a ton of cards I really don't want to see on the river and I thought I'd rather make him commit to the hand now.

Is that solid reasoning? Normally with a strong hand like a set I would just call a turn raise and decide how to get the maximum on the river.

The Doc

Re: Middle set from the BB...too much action?
 

Not many hands beat you, and none of them seem too likely from the preflop/flop action. Meanwhile I can think of strong hands that you're way ahead of. Therefore I put my money in and live with the results.

Re: Middle set from the BB...too much action?
 

Pot unopened, holding 99 on 6 max?
I would make a standard raise preflop.