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12-19-2005 04:05 PM

Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
2nd hand at the table, no reads


Party Poker 0.50/1.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.00 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, CO calls.

Turn: (6.00 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (8.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.00 BB.

Vote4Pedro 12-19-2005 04:10 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
Good, as long as you don't check/call the river...bet/fold or check/fold

12-19-2005 04:11 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
Raise pf, bet the flop. I don't like the OOP c/r here. I think you learn more with this line before the big bets.

NobodysFreak 12-19-2005 04:13 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
I checked "Thumbs Down" at first because I thought it was full ring. We have no reads so I'd probably lay down 88 pf in the SB here.

However, this is a 6-max table. Thumbs up.

tiltaholic 12-19-2005 04:15 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
i think it is ok.

Eeegah 12-19-2005 04:16 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
Raise pf

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet preflop with 88? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

imported_The Vibesman 12-19-2005 04:16 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
I'd usually bet/fold the river.

12-19-2005 04:19 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
Thumbs up. The flop is a definite raise or fold scenario. If you call you make it 10 bets giving good odds for those yet to act. So, since your hand is strong enough to continue you need to raise. Yeah, you were probably sucked out on the river but you played it right. nh.

jaxUp 12-19-2005 04:24 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
Raise pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is wrong, IMO. I'd rather not bloat the pot with a mid pair OOP

[ QUOTE ]
, bet the flop. I don't like the OOP c/r here.

[/ QUOTE ]

the c/r is for protection to force out OCs and this is the perfect spot for it. I like this hand.

Homer315 12-19-2005 05:17 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'd usually bet/fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

12-19-2005 05:23 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd usually bet/fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
what hand range are you putting villian on? The only reasonable hand that villian could have that I beat is KQ. If I bet out on the river I think I am going to get raised a hell of a lot and am basically just donating a BB to CO.

Homer315 12-19-2005 05:29 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd usually bet/fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
what hand range are you putting villian on? The only reasonable hand that villian could have that I beat is KQ. If I bet out on the river I think I am going to get raised a hell of a lot and am basically just donating a BB to CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's six max, right? The guy could have been raising with lots of different hands. Hell, he might even have a jack or pocket kings, and fold thinking he's now behind that ace on the river. If you are betting all along, and that ace doesn't slow you down, if he raises it's an easy fold. Meanwhile, if you check, you are inviting basically any hand to bluff at the pot, and you have to fold anyway. I agree that if he calls the bet, you are probably going to lose, but the pot is big enough that it may be a larger mistake to fold for the one bet on the river. That being said, I'd rather bet than call this river.

Let's say the CO has 10-J. You bet the river. Is he calling? Without a read that he's a calling station, there's a pretty good chance he's folding. I bet though for the reasons explained a little earlier.

imported_The Vibesman 12-19-2005 05:34 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd usually bet/fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
what hand range are you putting villian on? The only reasonable hand that villian could have that I beat is KQ. If I bet out on the river I think I am going to get raised a hell of a lot and am basically just donating a BB to CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without reads, I'm not assuming right off that he's got a reasonable hand or that he'd play in a reasonable way. Even if his raising range preflop is standard, there's no reason to assume his postflop play is any good at all.

For example, many players at this level turn passive with top pair in the face of one flop raise. Say he did this with TT, scared you had a set but willing to call down, and now the ace hits and you bet right out. Might he fold?

Say he has KT, didn't fold the flop to the checkraise because no one does at this limit, and called the turn with his gutshot. Is it possible he may bluff when you check the river ace?

K9s? Again, passive on flop with top pair when reraised. Might fold to the river ace.

I know, these aren't as likely as many of the other holdings, and it's very likely villian has the Axh.

It is seeming pretty thin as I go over it. He'll probably call the river for one more bet with any better hand. I guess I'm not convinced that he doesn't bluff a busted draw here enough to fold this river.

I hate working without reads. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

12-19-2005 05:38 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd usually bet/fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
what hand range are you putting villian on? The only reasonable hand that villian could have that I beat is KQ. If I bet out on the river I think I am going to get raised a hell of a lot and am basically just donating a BB to CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy could have been raising with lots of different hands. Hell, he might even have a jack or pocket kings, and fold thinking he's now behind that ace on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know about this logic, I showed all of my aggression prior to there being an ace on the board.

Homer315 12-19-2005 05:43 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
You're assuming his raising hand had to have contained an ace then, right? Is he that predictable? You made my point, you showed all of your aggression before the ace showed up. By checking that river, you may as well have sent up flares saying, I had a pair that is less than aces now, but I am scared, so bet your pocket sixes and watch me fold!

I said if he calls, it's unlikely you're winning, but do you really want to fold that river for one bet? That takes quite a narrow read that the guy only raises (or bets the river) with an ace. If that's the case, then, sure it's correct to check/fold.

Sykes 12-19-2005 05:47 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
Anyone 3 bet 88 from SB to try to get it HU?

12-19-2005 05:55 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
Your assuming his raising hand had to have contained an ace then, right? Is he that predictable? You made my point, you showed all of your aggression before the ace showed up. By checking that river, you may as well have sent up flares saying, I had a pair that is less than aces now, but I am scared, so bet your pocket sixes and watch me fold!

I said if he calls, it's unlikely you're winning, but do you really want to fold that river for one bet? That takes quite a narrow read that the guy only raises (or bets the river) with an ace. If that's the case, then, sure it's correct to check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think vibesman makes a good point that any straight draw is going to bluff at me on the river. The question is how of does he have KT? I think TT may also fold on this river, but still that is pretty close because I showed my aggresion on the flop when TT was an overpair. I could easily be c/r that flop with 9 high. There is no way he is folding QQ or KK. And if he caught a jack on the turn I am also assuming he would call the river bet and if the river didn't come the ace, I might be worried about a raise on the river too. Either way, this is my reasoning more or less, why I think it is pretty safe to c/f this.

Homer315 12-19-2005 06:04 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your assuming his raising hand had to have contained an ace then, right? Is he that predictable? You made my point, you showed all of your aggression before the ace showed up. By checking that river, you may as well have sent up flares saying, I had a pair that is less than aces now, but I am scared, so bet your pocket sixes and watch me fold!

I said if he calls, it's unlikely you're winning, but do you really want to fold that river for one bet? That takes quite a narrow read that the guy only raises (or bets the river) with an ace. If that's the case, then, sure it's correct to check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think vibesman makes a good point that any straight draw is going to bluff at me on the river. The question is how of does he have KT? I think TT may also fold on this river, but still that is pretty close because I showed my aggresion on the flop when TT was an overpair. I could easily be c/r that flop with 9 high. There is no way he is folding QQ or KK. And if he caught a jack on the turn I am also assuming he would call the river bet and if the river didn't come the ace, I might be worried about a raise on the river too. Either way, this is my reasoning more or less, why I think it is pretty safe to c/f this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look, it's definitely a close decision, but the reality is that for all intents and purposes, the only way you're taking down this pot is with a bet and his fold. If he calls, you're probably losing. if it's checked through, there are few hands you're beating other than KQ. If you check and he bets, you're folding, right? I think a bet wins this pot at least 12-15% of the time, which is all you need for it to be +EV.

milesdyson 12-19-2005 06:40 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
thumbs up... if we posted this in shshshsushshsush i think the results of this poll would be reversed

jaxUp 12-19-2005 07:21 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
shshshsushshsush

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

bozlax 12-19-2005 07:48 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
Thumbs up on the hand.

Thumbs down on making it a poll. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

12-19-2005 08:07 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
Joevak-

call pf call...we have a good hand but OOP vs 3 or more players I dont want to bloat the pot. Since CO raised PF and we have a nice flop the c/r is great- by not 3betting we aren't giving overs/weird draws the odds to call (but that doesn't mean they wont). Turn bet is super standard and I actually like the river. Sure, no reads but what is he raising after a limper that doesn't have us beat? Our only hope is that a river bet will fold a 9 or TT or something. I doubt he bets that river w/ KQ and as far as I can tell everything else has us beat. I dont think we can make QQ or KK fold in this pot for one bet on the river. Some might say bet/fold and try, but I dont think an unknown at 50/1 is disciplined enough to make it.

mojobluesman 12-19-2005 08:36 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
I'd at least consider 3 betting pre flop to try to get it heads up.

I usually bet the river and fold to a raise because I hate checking and then being in the position of trying to decide whether he's betting a worse hand because I checked or whether he actually has me beat. I think you fold too many winning hands this way and there's absolutely no chance of getting him to fold something better. In this case, there aren't many better hands he could have that he would fold though.

Jaran 12-19-2005 09:08 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
You need a thumbs sideways option. I like it up until the river. I much prefer a bet/fold.

-Jaran

istewart 12-19-2005 09:10 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
Well done.

12-19-2005 09:15 PM

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 
The river is the interesting part of this hand.

Without reads, I don't know. I think bet/fold, check/call and check/fold are all close.

Bet/fold is good if he folds a 9.
Check/call is good if he bluffs a busted FD more than 1:9.
check/fold is probably best. There's a good chance his FD probably backed into a pair.

thumbs up.


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