400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

UTG is sort of a donkey (58/20/~1) (same villian as in my previous hand, but read has changed), he's v. easy to read in the hands he plays against other people at the table. But I suspect he's actually decent, since he plays fairly decent vs. me (b/c of stacks). He calls flop very lightly vs me tho, and the times i've seen him bet into me when i've been the aggressor it's always been on the river when he's made his draw. I don't knwo what to make of his turn donk-bet, I suspect it's a flushdraw or steal of some kind as I expect him to raise KQ 100% of the time. It could be som other 2 pairs tho or a set (even deuces, he's loose enough to call the flop with that). EDIT: Although I have seen him limp v. good hands occasionally and play them passively on the first few streets, This usually hasn't been UTG tho, and it has never been semi-decent hands like KQ.

I've been raising him frequently preflop (and showing down lots of different hands, I could very well have 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 22 or a similar type hand here) and calling his raises liberaly as I want to play a lot of pots vs. him to stack him, he knows this and has been avoiding it.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

CO ($296.16)
Button ($453.50)
SB ($80.04)
BB ($642.43)
UTG ($1861.70)
Hero ($1540.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, CO calls $18, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $14.

Flop: ($60) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, CO folds, UTG calls $40.

Turn: ($140) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $100</font>, Hero's plan?

EDIT: Given the above, I'm not looking to fold (although if someone can make a persausive argument to do so I'd consider it). But I'm probably not looking to play a huge pot either as I'll almost surely lose if I do.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

If he's truly a donkey, I would call. If he's a solid player, you have some thinking to do. Yes, donkeys do call raises out of position with crap like K2, but you probably have the best hand at this point. Against a solid player, you have to consider other things like, what he limped in with, etc. Although, if a solid player limped in UTG with AA or KK, he would've reraised you preflop. Call.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

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EDIT: Given the above, I'm not looking to fold (although if someone can make a persausive argument to do so I'd consider it). But I'm probably not looking to play a huge pot either as I'll almost surely lose if I do.

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If this is true, you have one option and its totally obvious.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

Yeah as I wrote, he's "sort of a donkey", he hasn't exactly been throwing his money at me.

But when I call the turn what's the plan for the river? Pot will be $340 and we'll have lots of $$$ behind, and he's not the kind to make a blocking bet that's a min-bet. In other words I might face a close to pot be on the river.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah as I wrote, he's "sort of a donkey", he hasn't exactly been throwing his money at me.

But when I call the turn what's the plan for the river? Pot will be $340 and we'll have lots of $$$ behind, and he's not the kind to make a blocking bet that's a min-bet. In other words I might face a close to pot be on the river.

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If you raise the turn, will he still be inclined to bet a worse hand for value on the river? If not, you can make a smallish (1/2- to 2/3-pot) raise on the turn and fold to a reraise or a river donkbet without committing as much as if you call turn and call a pot bet on the river. Basically, your turn raise is a blocking bet to set your price for showdown but its no good if a call of the turn raise followed by a river bet could possibly be a worse hand.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

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EDIT: Given the above, I'm not looking to fold (although if someone can make a persausive argument to do so I'd consider it). But I'm probably not looking to play a huge pot either as I'll almost surely lose if I do.

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If this is true, you have one option and its totally obvious.

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Yeah, but I could be facing another bet on the river...

There's still the option of raising the turn and not putting any more money into the pot.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

i'd raise the turn. not only are you taking control of the hand, you'll see how strong villain's hand really is. if he pushes, you fold. if he calls and leads the river, i think its an easy fold. if he calls and checks the river, you can check behind and get to showdown a lot easier than calling the turn/river.

i know that sounds like a "raise to find out where you are" post, but with your read, there is a good chance you're ahead here and want to show this hand down. i think raising the turn gets you there the cheapest.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

i'm not so sure i fold here.. theres really nothing that is too scary about this board unless he hit a set.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

thats not too bad of an idea..

maybe even a miniraise to $200 would be sufficient.

if he pushes you're probably beat, if he flat calls and then decides to throw it in there on the river you probably have him.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

like i said before.. i like the turn miniraise to $200 here.

he obviously respects your play. and if hes "sort of a donkey" and has noticed that you paid him off last time he hit his draw when he lead out.. he might be using that against you this time.

what makes KJ sound so out of the question here?

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

agreed. i say we get the information on the turn.

there are some donks and even decent players who will do this w/ AQ.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

If he really is afraid of playing a big pot, he could have something like AA as well. Given the range you gave though, I would raise the turn, and make it a real raise, to $440. Check the river. Fold to reraise or river lead.

Fin

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

right. if the poster provided all the information available at the time theres a probably 80% chance that you hand is good here unless hes decided to really mess with you and get sneaky.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

Looks to me like a cagey move designed for you to take him off a flush draw. If he c/c and hits the flush on the river you might not call or could check behind. I don't want to play a big pot with TPTK either. Passive players are tough to read.

But you're tough to read too. And you have position. UTG doesn't want to lose his stack either. I think a smooth call will show weakness and lead to a larger river bet even if the flush doesn't show, except that you don't say anywhere in your analysis of him that you've seen him make a move. If you've been calling his raises liberally in the past I think I'd do the same here and see what the river brings. Since you've got position you'll have better opportunities to get a piece of this guy.

Until I see him make a move I'm going to assume he's got the goods when he brings it on the river.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

I just flat call here. He doesn't sound the type to make a real bluff at it twice.
You said you don't want to fold, and also don't want to get too much in there, which makes sense with the stack sizes.
thus I just call.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

I apologize for writing call, I meant raise his ass, put him to a decision. If he limped in with a pair and flopped a set, you reraise here, and fold to a reraise/push by him. If he calls, you can probably call a bet on the river if he doesn't move in. He'd have to be real stupid to lose his stack with KJ or JQ in this situation.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

Ghaz,
If you raise you are putting in $250-350 with the possibility of folding.
If you call you are putting in $100 on the turn + a possible river bet of ~$340 (probably closer to $300, maybe lower). $350-450 total

If you raise and are ahead there he folds a weak draw (maybe), a crap pair, and a complete bluff. You make $100 in those instances. The times hero is ahead and villian calls the turn you make $250-350. However, you will often not get to showdown and whe you are behind you stand to lose $250-$350.

If you call the turn the Villian is now given the oppurtunity to bet with complete air, a busted draw, and a worse pair (that he may believe is ahead). These times you now make $300-$450. If villian checks the river you make $100. If you are behind you stand to lose the $300-450. You also have the option (if so inclined) of bluffing a scarecard if you think you can push villian off of some random 2-pair. Plus, you now often have the benefit of seeing Villian's cards and getting a better handle on how he is playing.

I dunno, sometimes I play passively, is this comepeltely unreasonable? (if villian is prone to overbets at all then this post should be completely disregarded)

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

The Stop and Go move usually means that he has a draw. A blank hit and he figured that a bet here would confuse you and take you off your hand or let him have a cheap river. He figures you wouldn't raise here unless you had a monster. I've seen people try to pull this. So knowing that, I think you raise him here and really figure out where you are in this hand. For the most part, I think its really a raise for value here. And a raise here might even move him off KQ thinking maybe you have KK or QQ, but thats a real big maybe. I say raise that turn. Then on the river, if a blank hits you fire one more value bet and check behind if that heart hits.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

if he is on a draw that missed then he is not calling a riverbet. if he called the turn with a made hand it will most likely be beating you (unless he is donkish). if he called with a made hand that is behind he would really have to talk himself into calling on the river.

betting the river in this situation doesn't accomplish much except get Hero killed.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

My standard play here is to make it about 350 and not put another penny in after that. I dont know if this is good or not, just what I do.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

Well the bet on the river is a semi-bluff kinda. I think you are right here that if he calls you on the turn you probably are behind and that is the reason for the bet. The draw won't call. But you might be able to take him off his hand with a bet. The raise on the turn is huge. It says "I have a monster." The call there usually means he doesn't WANT to believe you. And thats why I would bet the river, to make him believe me. I mean a check behind is ok too. But I think that a check behind on the river usually ends up you losing the pot. I guess the bet on the river would really depend on your read. Did this guy pick off a lot of river bluffs? Is he more inclined to call or fold here on the river? I think a check behind is the safest route but I don't mind a bet on the river here neither. Either play works for me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

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Well the bet on the river is a semi-bluff kinda

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no its not. a semi-bluff is a bet which, when behind, has outs. river you are dead.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

Well thats why I said kinda. There would be a chance you are good and a good chance you are dead. IDK what to call that lol.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

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Yeah as I wrote, he's "sort of a donkey", he hasn't exactly been throwing his money at me.

But when I call the turn what's the plan for the river? Pot will be $340 and we'll have lots of $$$ behind, and he's not the kind to make a blocking bet that's a min-bet. In other words I might face a close to pot be on the river.

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If you raise the turn, will he still be inclined to bet a worse hand for value on the river? If not, you can make a smallish (1/2- to 2/3-pot) raise on the turn and fold to a reraise or a river donkbet without committing as much as if you call turn and call a pot bet on the river. Basically, your turn raise is a blocking bet to set your price for showdown but its no good if a call of the turn raise followed by a river bet could possibly be a worse hand.

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Yeah, I don't see him 3-betting the turn or donking the river for several hundred with just a weak pair, so I like a turn raise to ~$300 for the reasons Ghazban says

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

Flat call and call a reasonable river bet. I don't think it's wise to raise and stick more money in with TPTK. I would love for someone to convince me this is the best line. I think when you flat call and keep the pot 'small', you have a better chance of getting to a showdown for a reasonable pot size.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ghaz,
If you raise you are putting in $250-350 with the possibility of folding.
If you call you are putting in $100 on the turn + a possible river bet of ~$340 (probably closer to $300, maybe lower). $350-450 total

If you raise and are ahead there he folds a weak draw (maybe), a crap pair, and a complete bluff. You make $100 in those instances. The times hero is ahead and villian calls the turn you make $250-350. However, you will often not get to showdown and whe you are behind you stand to lose $250-$350.

If you call the turn the Villian is now given the oppurtunity to bet with complete air, a busted draw, and a worse pair (that he may believe is ahead). These times you now make $300-$450. If villian checks the river you make $100. If you are behind you stand to lose the $300-450. You also have the option (if so inclined) of bluffing a scarecard if you think you can push villian off of some random 2-pair. Plus, you now often have the benefit of seeing Villian's cards and getting a better handle on how he is playing.

I dunno, sometimes I play passively, is this comepeltely unreasonable? (if villian is prone to overbets at all then this post should be completely disregarded)

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No. I personally don't understand the raise line myself and thought of it pretty much like you did. A worse hand is liekly not calling, and a better hand or even split ahnd may put you to the test. I really thought this was standard poker, but perhaps I have a lot to learn. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

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EDIT: Given the above, I'm not looking to fold (although if someone can make a persausive argument to do so I'd consider it). But I'm probably not looking to play a huge pot either as I'll almost surely lose if I do.

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If this is true, you have one option and its totally obvious.

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Yeah, but I could be facing another bet on the river...

There's still the option of raising the turn and not putting any more money into the pot.

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let's say you raise to $300 and he calls. Now he leads the river for 2/3 pot. What are you going to do?

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

passive is the new aggressive

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

With that flop, I'd make it 60 on flop, planning to check turn, and play poker on river. If he calls 60, bringing the pot to 180 and comes at me with a 140 bet, i can fold.

I'm all for 2/3 type bets on flop, with the right flop, position, etc. This wasnt it tho, IMHO.

As you played it, tough decision, I may call here.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

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I think when you flat call and keep the pot 'small', you have a better chance of getting to a showdown for a reasonable pot size.

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Yeah, if he has a worse hand than you on the river

You think he's slows down on the river with 2 pair + ? Also, if you call, the pot on the river is $340, so a decent bet from him is $200-$300, whereas a turn raise from you can be $150-$200 more. So I say that raising the turn is cheaper when you are behind

RESULTS
 

Forgot i posted this before I left for holidays.

I suspect this hand might be too read-based... I had a fairly good read on this player after playing lots of pots with him and generally paying good attention. I should have gone with my read and raised the turn to something like ~$275 and not put in any more money -- as a sort of pre-emptive blocking bet/ protecting my hand against a draw. I wouldn't like to face a pot bet on most rivers since he could be holding a lot of draws.

In the hand I thought for a short while and called.


River: ($340) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $350</font>

I thought for a while, at this point I got a gut-feeling telling me probably wouldn't bet a missed draw here, but he might have a king... I dunno... i used my timer and then folded. He showed 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Yuck.

TY for the responses.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Forgot i posted this before I left for holidays.

I suspect this hand might be too read-based... I had a fairly good read on this player after playing lots of pots with him and generally paying good attention. I should have gone with my read and raised the turn to something like ~$275 and not put in any more money -- as a sort of pre-emptive blocking bet/ protecting my hand against a draw. I wouldn't like to face a pot bet on most rivers since he could be holding a lot of draws.

In the hand I thought for a short while and called.


River: ($340) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $350</font>

I thought for a while, at this point I got a gut-feeling telling me probably wouldn't bet a missed draw here, but he might have a king... I dunno... i used my timer and then folded. He showed 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Yuck.

TY for the responses.

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I don't think you should beat yourself up for failing to protect against a 2 outer. although you should consider whether this guy is overbetting a heart river as well.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

Raise, fold to a 3-bet, check behind on river. I'm only just getting to this long thread now and have only read OP so sorry if this is just repetition.

Edit: OK, I read the thread now and completely agree with the people who say to raise and not put in another dime. It protects against draws (5 outers are very likely here and they are worth protecting against if it's not going to cost you anything, which it won't in this case) and it gets good value from weaker kings without exposing your entire stack. And if he played a monster tricky like this, he will often try to c/r the river to complete the coup de grace.

And a bet that can fold a better hand or get called by a worse hand is called a "two way bet" not a "semi-bluff kinda".