Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

agreed. i say we get the information on the turn.

there are some donks and even decent players who will do this w/ AQ.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

If he really is afraid of playing a big pot, he could have something like AA as well. Given the range you gave though, I would raise the turn, and make it a real raise, to $440. Check the river. Fold to reraise or river lead.

Fin

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

right. if the poster provided all the information available at the time theres a probably 80% chance that you hand is good here unless hes decided to really mess with you and get sneaky.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

Looks to me like a cagey move designed for you to take him off a flush draw. If he c/c and hits the flush on the river you might not call or could check behind. I don't want to play a big pot with TPTK either. Passive players are tough to read.

But you're tough to read too. And you have position. UTG doesn't want to lose his stack either. I think a smooth call will show weakness and lead to a larger river bet even if the flush doesn't show, except that you don't say anywhere in your analysis of him that you've seen him make a move. If you've been calling his raises liberally in the past I think I'd do the same here and see what the river brings. Since you've got position you'll have better opportunities to get a piece of this guy.

Until I see him make a move I'm going to assume he's got the goods when he brings it on the river.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

I just flat call here. He doesn't sound the type to make a real bluff at it twice.
You said you don't want to fold, and also don't want to get too much in there, which makes sense with the stack sizes.
thus I just call.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

I apologize for writing call, I meant raise his ass, put him to a decision. If he limped in with a pair and flopped a set, you reraise here, and fold to a reraise/push by him. If he calls, you can probably call a bet on the river if he doesn't move in. He'd have to be real stupid to lose his stack with KJ or JQ in this situation.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

Ghaz,
If you raise you are putting in $250-350 with the possibility of folding.
If you call you are putting in $100 on the turn + a possible river bet of ~$340 (probably closer to $300, maybe lower). $350-450 total

If you raise and are ahead there he folds a weak draw (maybe), a crap pair, and a complete bluff. You make $100 in those instances. The times hero is ahead and villian calls the turn you make $250-350. However, you will often not get to showdown and whe you are behind you stand to lose $250-$350.

If you call the turn the Villian is now given the oppurtunity to bet with complete air, a busted draw, and a worse pair (that he may believe is ahead). These times you now make $300-$450. If villian checks the river you make $100. If you are behind you stand to lose the $300-450. You also have the option (if so inclined) of bluffing a scarecard if you think you can push villian off of some random 2-pair. Plus, you now often have the benefit of seeing Villian's cards and getting a better handle on how he is playing.

I dunno, sometimes I play passively, is this comepeltely unreasonable? (if villian is prone to overbets at all then this post should be completely disregarded)

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

The Stop and Go move usually means that he has a draw. A blank hit and he figured that a bet here would confuse you and take you off your hand or let him have a cheap river. He figures you wouldn't raise here unless you had a monster. I've seen people try to pull this. So knowing that, I think you raise him here and really figure out where you are in this hand. For the most part, I think its really a raise for value here. And a raise here might even move him off KQ thinking maybe you have KK or QQ, but thats a real big maybe. I say raise that turn. Then on the river, if a blank hits you fire one more value bet and check behind if that heart hits.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

if he is on a draw that missed then he is not calling a riverbet. if he called the turn with a made hand it will most likely be beating you (unless he is donkish). if he called with a made hand that is behind he would really have to talk himself into calling on the river.

betting the river in this situation doesn't accomplish much except get Hero killed.

Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
 

My standard play here is to make it about 350 and not put another penny in after that. I dont know if this is good or not, just what I do.