Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

Anyone think of a lower over-under in an NFL game in the past few years? 31 ? Whats the play boys???

Re: Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

If I bet the game I would go under - looks too easy to take the over. Two lousy QB's (17-10)

Re: Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

i still say under is the play regardless the low total. both defenses are solid and pretty much every game they have played this year has gone under. the only reason jets game went over last week against jax was because of a defensive touchdown and OT. i will probably stay away from this game though. i think the indy/tenn under is a safer play

Re: Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

the majority of action is taking under 31. some books already down to 30.5

Re: Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

[ QUOTE ]
i still say under is the play regardless the low total. both defenses are solid. . .

[/ QUOTE ]

The Jets' defense is overrated. Last year they were 4th in points allowed, but that actually had little to do with the defense: because of a conservative and slow-paced offense, the Jets' defense faced only 966 plays last year, 6th lowest in the league. The Jets' offense also committed only 16 turnovers last year -- best in the league -- meaning that opposing offenses very seldom had good starting field position.

Baltimore's D is good, but given their first two games this year, I think the smart money says they're not as good as they were last year.

In a mistake-free game, I think this would be just as likely to finish 20-13 as 17-10. This won't be a mistake-free game, though. With 2nd and 3rd stringers starting, I see lots of interceptions, fumbles, and punts from the end zone, meaning lots of easy scoring chances for the (admittedly bad) offenses.

Re: Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

I forget what game it was, but I think there was one that was either 29 or 30 last year. Game was going to be played in bad weather, maybe a snow storm. Don't recall the specifics though.

By the way, this game has all the makings of a final score of 4-3. Bollinger could be so bad, the Jets could get hit for 2 safeties, not just one.

Re: Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

Seems kinda weird how everyone is on the under. I have yet to see one argument for the over, kinda makes me wanna play it [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] Feels like an NCAA game that has 2 huge offenses and no D and the bookies dont even post a total bc it would have to be some astronomical number.

Could the public be right? It does happen once in a while.

Re: Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

I like the over. I think the Baltimore defense can put enough pressue on a new QB to force turnovers and/or great field position all game long. On offense, I think Wrght is better than Boller anyway. I also think Jamal Lewis is hungry for a good game after the last one he had. I could see Baltimore scoring close to 30 like Chicago did a few weeks ago. Special teams and defense should provide scoring opportunities.

How's that for an argument for the over?

Re: Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the over. I think the Baltimore defense can put enough pressue on a new QB to force turnovers and/or great field position all game long. On offense, I think Wrght is better than Boller anyway. I also think Jamal Lewis is hungry for a good game after the last one he had. I could see Baltimore scoring close to 30 like Chicago did a few weeks ago. Special teams and defense should provide scoring opportunities.

How's that for an argument for the over?

[/ QUOTE ]

Turnovers will probably be the key. Yea, I think lewis is due for a big game also, the Jets D is really that good and I think people are putting to much stock in the QB factor.

Im starting to like the over.......


Done!

Bal/Jets Ovr 31 [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Balt/NYJ ov/und 31??
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the over. I think the Baltimore defense can put enough pressue on a new QB to force turnovers and/or great field position all game long. On offense, I think Wrght is better than Boller anyway. I also think Jamal Lewis is hungry for a good game after the last one he had. I could see Baltimore scoring close to 30 like Chicago did a few weeks ago. Special teams and defense should provide scoring opportunities.

How's that for an argument for the over?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not intended to be an argument against the over, but Wright is not better than Boller. Plenty has been said about young Kyle but he has a much stronger arm than and doesn't turn the ball over near as often as Anthony Wright:

Boller

711 career pass attempts, 21 INT; 137 rushes and times sacked, 21 fumbles

Wright

400 career pass attempts, 19 INT; 101 rushes and times sacked, 17 fumbles

This is a game of two very inexperienced starting QBs. Although I don't see Balt. scoring 30, this is a situation ripe for own field turnovers. If I was forced to play the total, I'd go over.