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-   -   1st Hand Winner=Losing Session (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=168828)

RobertHunter 12-30-2004 04:50 PM

1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
Hello to all,this is my first post so please be gentle.I am a fairly longtime lurker who was inspired to register so I could PM Granny about the Tsunami Tourney.I have been keeping track of sessions when I win the first hand I am dealt and I have a losing session about 75% of the time when I win the first hand I am dealt.I know this sounds somewhat superstitous and that since I am aware of this pattern I might be helping to create a "self-fulfilling prophecy".However,I was curious if anyone else has noticed this?

emonrad87 12-30-2004 04:51 PM

Re: 1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
No.

Subby 12-30-2004 05:23 PM

Re: 1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
How many total hands are we talking? How many sessions?

If the answer is 500,000 and 500 then I would still say it is a statistical anomaly.

However...

It could be mental - you hit right away, start feeling invincible, relax your starting hand requirements, start losing, start chasing to make up that first big win, two hours later, downdowndown!

I guess it would be helpful to look at your overall stats, too.

Anyway - good luck.

TimM 12-30-2004 05:29 PM

Re: 1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
[ QUOTE ]
I have a losing session about 75% of the time when I win the first hand I am dealt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Le me guess, do you have a losing session about 76% of the time when you lose the first hand you are dealt?

BeantownCaller 12-30-2004 07:13 PM

Re: 1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
I haven't experienced anything like that but what happens on the last hand of a session means a lot more than the first hand (with regard to whether you leave up or down). My goal in poker is to win overall, I'm happy to triple up and walk away 40% of the time and get busted for all my chips 60% of the time if I'm in the postive overall. Are you the type of player who never walks away from a table up only a few bucks, even when the table is extra tight and there are juicer places to play? If you play NL do you consider the end of a session when you go all in, get called, and lose?

MicroBob 12-30-2004 07:19 PM

Re: 1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
Have you considered simply folding your first hand every session?
I think would solve all your problems.

cbfair 12-30-2004 07:20 PM

Re: 1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
This morning I got to the end of a waiting list about 15 minutes before I had to stop playing and go to work; I was dealt AA my first hand and won a big pot. After 15 hands, I was up 36BB and played 76% of the hands I was dealt and raised preflop about half the time(JJ, QQ, AKs, etc). Does that mean I'll always win if I win the first hand? Or that I should play more loosely and aggressive preflop? Or that I should play a 15 hand session every morning before work? Hardly. It means I had a good run and that is independent of every outside factor I could makeup. The results of one hand are independent of the results of every other hand.

RobertHunter 12-30-2004 09:20 PM

Re: 1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
Thank you very much Bob.Honestly, no I hadn't and I do believe you are correct that will solve this(mental) situation.

BottlesOf 12-30-2004 09:23 PM

Re: 1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
You're new, so I'll be nice. This "pattern" doesn't exist.

Yads 12-31-2004 01:30 AM

Re: 1st Hand Winner=Losing Session
 
What could potentially happen though if you do win a big pot right off the bat is that you'll play with a more cavalier attitude and that might translate into a losing session.


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