Commerce 20/40 flush board
 

Hero is the Button

Villian is in MP. He is a "celebrity", not in a real way, but in the "I tip the floorman $10 for locking my seat" kind of way. A lot of employees say hi to him. He is seeing 30-40% of flops, and plays pretty aggressively.

MP1 limps, Villian limps, I raise with 8d9d. Blinds fold, limpers call, 3 to the flop for 7.5SB.

Flop is 8-high, all hearts. Check-check-I bet. MP1 folds, Villian raises. It was a mean raise, like "take that sh*t out of here". I called.

Turn is a heart. Villian checks.

Any suggestions on my line for the rest of the hand?

Re: Commerce 20/40 flush board
 

First off don't raise with mid to weak hands on the button. Everytime a button raises people think its a bluff and call down. So raising 89s will not be +EV in a 3 way pot. Also, you are most likely ahead right now so 3 bet the flop to findout where he is at. If he caps check/fold the turn unless an 8 comes.

Re: Commerce 20/40 flush board
 

Ryno,

I don't like your raise preflop; calling is a much better play.

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Any suggestions on my line for the rest of the hand?

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After being check-raised on the flop I think that it would be foolish to bet the turn. Take the free card.

-- Manzanita

Re: Commerce 20/40 flush board
 

you are not betting out a better hand very often here, and you have an 8, no kicker. A8, any heart, two pair, etc. beats you and will probably not fold. Still, it might make sense to bet the turn, fold to a checkraise, and check through the river if called.

Alternately, you could check the turn, check/fold the river. This is a tough line though, given vilain's aggressive profile, because he wil probably bet the river, so you're basically giving up on the hand. Still, the 5.5 BB in the pot probably don't justify a river call.

This seems to me like a bet the turn when you're probably way behind situation.

Re: Commerce 20/40 flush board
 

I'm shocked that no one thinks you should bet the turn. I would definitely bet. He may like the heart, but then again, he could easily be scared and ready to give up a better hand. Bet bet bet. You'll fail often often, but getting over 5:1 that he'll fold, betting's the way to go, I believe. Watch as he throws black aces face up on the table and gives you that "nice suckout" look as he rolls as eyes and curses his terrible luck.

Good luck.
Eric

Re: Commerce 20/40 flush board
 

"he could easily be scared and ready to give up a better hand"

That is exactly what I thought at the time. But now I'm not so sure. I don't know if he would fold a small flush card heads-up on the turn. And if he didn't have a flush, I was about 80% sure I had the best hand given the action to that point. But if he had a better non-flush hand (20% of the time), he is folding for sure. On the other hand, if I check behind, he would bet a flush 100% of the time, and any other cards a good portion of the time (I am calling no matter what).

I am paying exactly 1 bet from this point forward, for sure. So the question is, where is it best spent?

Re: Commerce 20/40 flush board
 

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I would definitely bet. He may like the heart, but then again, he could easily be scared and ready to give up a better hand. Bet bet bet.... Watch as he throws black aces face up on the table and gives you that "nice suckout" look as he rolls as eyes and curses his terrible luck.

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This type of villian never folds top pair or better here HU. You're getting called by ANY pair hands better than yours. That said, I really don't see a checkraise coming here, unless villian is particularly tricky. This type of opponent though, in my experience, isn't really capable of pulling off multiple check-raises w/o losing the agression at some point in the hand.

I like checking the turn, and either calling a bet on the river or chekcing behind.

RESULTS
 

I bet the turn. He called. On the river he checked and I showed my 8. He went back to his hand, then took a long look at the board, saw the 4-flush, and showed 4h for the winner. He was calling me down with pocket 4's, and unless he was acting, didn't even see the 4-flush board!

To those who questioned the preflop raise, this is a very inexpensive form of deception that can pay off later in the hand, especially with the image I had at the time. I have no regrets about that part and would do it again. I am certain it made an impression on the celebrity, as he did not respect my later bets and raises with good hands.

Re: RESULTS
 

here's my take on it:

you check the turn and call the river.

here are the scenarios: A. he has a low flush and will call the turn and either check or bet the river.

B. he has a high flush and will check raise the turn

C. he doesn't have a flush but has you beat (I'm fairly sure that he is ahead more than 20% of the time he doesn't have a flush)... and will likely check-call the rest of the way...although there is a SMALL chance he will fold to a bet.

D. You are ahead and he will either check-fold, check-call-check, or check and bet (bluff) the river.

A. you should check the turn, because you gain nothing by betting, and if he happens to check the river you save a bet.
B. you should check the turn, but it doesn't matter, you are losing 1 bet either way. (but no reason to bet)
C. you should probably check, but it's close. you should only bet if he will fold at least, what, 20% of the time? (i didn't do the pot odds math). i seriously doubt he will fold 20% of the time. it is VERY rare to see someone check-raise the flop heads-up and check-fold the turn. a better play than betting the turn would be RAISING the turn had he bet. since you can't do that, and he won't fold 20% of the time you should probably check, and hope that he checks the river, saving you a bet.
D. you should bet, but it's close. if you could guarantee that you would not be drawn-out on on the river it might better to check, and hopefully induce a bluff on the river. (we are assuming that you will not under any circumstances bet the river)

so- the only reason to bet the turn would be- if you thought you were likely ahead. i'd say that's a very long shot.