25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

Heads-up, villian has about 6k I have him covered. We have been playing heads-up for about 30minutes since game broke, he is solid, not too creative, and I have been bullying him quite a bit. We've only gone to showdown a few times on significant pots and I've had the goods usually.

74s in BB, he raises to 150, I call. He was raising probably about 40% of hands, sometimes minraise, other times pot-raise. I defended a good % of times.

Flop 335r. I check, he pots it for 300, I make it 900. He continuation bet about 50% of time after raising pf, I would fold most of the time OOP. THis is only my third or fourth flop cr and first time I haven't had the goods.

He calls the raise. Turn is offsuit 4. I bet 1000. He calls. Rirver 3, I move in for his last 4k..

Will I make him fold his PP enough times on the river for my bet to be +EV, given the circumstances? We have no prior history with each other before this session, fwiw.

Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

I think someone folds a PP >5 0% of the time.

Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

I think 99 or better is looking you up here a large percantage of the time. I think the river push is a -EV play.

Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

bluffing people off full houses is -ev

Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

When I play huge pots in spots like this I usually end up kicking myself for it as I like to be on complete air or holding something very strong. Given the strength of your hand, I think you should have looked to keep the pot smallish.

Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

Heads up I cannot conceive of folding 88+ here. I'd probably call with any overpair here precisely because you never know when somebody's going to show up with some busted gut-shot/turned pair or some other junk like that.

Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

[ QUOTE ]
bluffing people off full houses is -ev

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the circumstances though, the fact that he has a full house here doesn't mean much, since it's not hard to have a full.

What could my hand range be, logically? I'd say based on my flop checkraise (in order) a 3, big overpair, air, 55 (or other FH), and occasionally a OESD/GSSD. If I am continuing on after the flop checkraise, given that I haven't shown down any crap or played back at his bets very often, what conceivable reason would he have to believe I have nothing here, on a relatively harmless board with him showing strength?

Let's put it another way; if I was in villian's shoes and asked would it be +EV to call that allin with 77-TT, given my description, I'd highly doubt most of you would say it is a good call. Relatively straightforward players RARELY bluff 3-barrels, especially into a draw-less board like this, so by being a calling station and HOPING that by some chance you have caught the other person on a stone cold bluff is bad play in the long run, no?

Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

given your history, i dont think i would ever fold 77-TT in the villain's shoes.

Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

Given that
1. we've played few big pots,
2. when we have i've always shown him good hands, and thus
3. He most likely thinks I am a straightforward player

What makes you so sure I'm bluffing here, other than the fact that I've told you my hole cards? How would you expect me to play 55, QQ-AA (keep in mind I haven't reraised him OOP yet PF so he shouldn't necessarily expect me to with these holdings), or a 3?

Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given that
1. we've played few big pots,
2. when we have i've always shown him good hands, and thus
3. He most likely thinks I am a straightforward player

What makes you so sure I'm bluffing here, other than the fact that I've told you my hole cards? How would you expect me to play 55, QQ-AA (keep in mind I haven't reraised him OOP yet PF so he shouldn't necessarily expect me to with these holdings), or a 3?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well here's my problem with this. If you think that villain should think there's a chance you have a 3, then he has to think there's a wide range of hands you reraise with preflop (why not 78 instead of 34 or 3x for example). In that case, he has to assume you're capable of bluffing in this spot as your preflop reraise doesn't scream strength. Obviously you could have QQ-AA with this line, but if I have 77-JJ I'll take my chances on this being a bluff.