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-   -   mistake by not raising? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=116997)

jah0550 08-26-2004 09:42 AM

mistake by not raising?
 
$10 Party last night. Blinds t30 9 Handed. Hero is UTG with 10,10. Hero calls. 3 folds. Next 3 call. SB completes and BB checks. Flop comes 10c,9d,6s. Hero bets the pot. Everyone folds, BB calls. Turn 7h. BB checks then Hero checks. River 2c. BB checks again. Hero bets 400. BB raises all-in. He ended up having 8d,4h, giving him the straight. I read on here alot that UTG you should limp with mid pairs hoping to hit the set. Should I have raised in order to at least get the SB ans BB to fold to avoid a situation like this? I am pretty sure that a 3XBB raise would have gotten the BB to fold. Any comments would be appreciated.

Lori 08-26-2004 01:07 PM

Re: mistake by not raising?
 
You played the whole hand fine with possibly the exception of the river.

As a rule I check this kind of scenario, however here it really looks like you might get value from betting, so it's a lot more borderline than usual.
As to how much, and whether to call the raise, just thinking about it makes me want to cry, it's that close.

Lori

La Brujita 08-26-2004 05:47 PM

Re: mistake by not raising?
 
Lori I am struggling a bit with whether to bet with hands like this (especially on the river) and am curious on the turn check and river check.

I don't know either way but here is what is going through my mind on the turn and river:

Turn:

1. What could he have called a potsized bet on the flop? Overpair-probably not likely since no pf raise (although JJ possible). 7-8-if so I am in trouble but can't always look for monsters under the bed. A gutshot? Two pair, possible since free play from BB (most likely hand would be 10-9 except for the obvious). A hand like A-9 or A-T or a middle pp (perhaps the most likely).

2. Do I need to protect my hand on the turn and/or should I be value betting it.

I guess the protection comes in if opponent holds a 5 or J and an 8 comes on the river-not that huge amount of protection in this hand.

3. Will a check allow my opponent to make the second best hand?

The question is does my hand figure to be good with enough frequency and have a worse hand call to make a value bet profitable on the turn. I personally think so especially in a smaller game.

River

1. Again what worse hands are likely to call a bet.

2. How likely is opponent to check raise.

3. If you were in first position, would your opponent be likely to bluff if you checked. Would you call the bet? If so then I guess you need to bet right-kind of a limit concept.

4. I think I am missing some river stuff, will consider it more-am trying to work on river play.

FWIW I like limping UTG. Any thoughts appreciated.

M.B.E. 08-27-2004 05:53 AM

Re: mistake by not raising?
 
I think if you have no read on the opponent, you have to check the turn here, because if you get checkraised you'd have to fold, losing the opportunity to draw for a boat.

betgo 08-27-2004 08:38 AM

Re: mistake by not raising?
 
Raising or limping UTG with TT was OK. The books are oriented toward major tournaments where the play is a lot tighter, so I wouldn't necessarily go with their recommendation to limp.

Why the overbet on the river? It seems like you bet twice the pot. At this point any 8 will beat you. Your opponent sees the straight possibilities too, so he will probably only call with a straight or better. It would have been much better to check the river or make a less than pot-sized bet.

SixgunSam 08-27-2004 10:04 AM

Re: mistake by not raising?
 
Lori, would you limp with TT here PF as well? I know some people recommend it early in a tournament, but I would rarely ever make that play. If I open betting on a pot, I like to raise it. I'm not sure I understand the benefits of limping out of position here.

Lori 08-27-2004 03:34 PM

Re: mistake by not raising?
 
I like to raise it. I'm not sure I understand the benefits of limping out of position here.

A set plays well in any position, the real question should be what the benefits of raising out of position are when there is almost guaranteed to be an overcard on the flop and there is no money in the pot to win with the raise!

Lori

Lori 08-27-2004 03:40 PM

Re: mistake by not raising?
 
2. Do I need to protect my hand on the turn and/or should I be value betting it.

I agree with the poster who wants to draw for free at the boat.
It's a real tough decision here, meaning it would be read based, but as always in NL, if in doubt fold (Or in this case check)

3. Will a check allow my opponent to make the second best hand?

I think here we are struggling to really know what we are up against, so we don't really know if we are trapping or being trapped and finding out is going to be expensive if we are being trapped.

As to the river, it's unfortunate that we have to decide here.
I think at this level a check-raise bluff is unlikely, so we need to bet small enough that we can fold if raised but big enough that we don't encourage the raise.
We also have to bet big enough that it's worth our while risking the bluff-raise.

On this occasion, it is all so close to finding a value where those criteria are met that it's probably not worth our while bothering.

Lori

StepRightUp 08-27-2004 04:29 PM

Re: mistake by not raising?
 
my first post so i hope it's a good one.

I would always raise with TT if I were UTG. I want to make everyone with K10o, QJ, 22, A4o, etc, think really hard about seeing the flop. I understand the benefit of calling for your implied odds to get trips. But why give the BB a chance to see it for free when you still may have the best hand if your trips don't fall? Esp if the BB ends up nailing 2 pair, flush, straight, etc. I think you made a good bet on the flop and I think he made a poor call.

But again, I'd raise a decent amount with the tens. 3 times the BB at least.

Hope I didn't embarrass myself cuz this is really a great forum.
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