Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

My first strategy post in quite some time. Game is 4 handed 50-100. I pick up KhKs UTG and raise to 325. Button and BB call.

Flop: 6h 5h 2s
BB checks I bet 800. Button calls, BB pushes for 5k. BB is the reason the game exists. I would happily call his push headup and would expect to win a large percentage of the time (he could literally have anything here, he is randomly aggressive and somewhat tilted). I call, hoping the button gets out. Button calls.

Turn (6h 5h 2s) Ts
I bet 3500, button pushes, I have 12k left and he covers.

A few thoughts. Villain is a super-aggressive player. From previous encounters I know he generally plays his draws fast on the flop as well as his big made hands. This situation, with a dry side pot, could alter his behavior though. Villain views me as a tightish player, and frequently pushes me out of pots. Additionally, he knows the BB probably doesnt have much, and also knows that I am going to have a real hard time calling with an overpair here. I will feel like a donk if I call his push only to see 66, but I will feel equally stupid if he squeezed me out with something like 88-jj. I think he smoothcalls with a heart draw on the flop, but only raises on the turn if the ten gave him a reasonable hand to win the main pot with (someting like jhth). Like I mentioned earlier, with a set or straight his general line is to push real hard on the flop, but hes certainly capable of mixing it up.

So, what do you do facing the push? My immediate thought was to instamuck, but the more I thought the more unsure I was. Anyone check the turn?

-Evan

Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

stack sizes? I don't know how much the shorty shoves for.

Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

Sorry. Fixed.

Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

You can't call that turn raise.

Furthermore, I don't really see a reason to combat a side pot here. Unless you want to be playing for 250BB with very little read against a tricky, aggressive player, keep the side pot 0.

Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

*I don't play this high*

But regardless...I think you are ahead. You only bet $3500 into a $16,000 pot which REEKS of weakness. I'm sure he sees a golden opportunity to blow a perceived nit off his non-set hand. If he flopped a set himself (or 2pair) then I would expect him to push after you flat call BB's 5k push. That way, his all in at that point looks like a draw trying to push out the 3rd party and is more likely to get called. Here, he waits until the turn which he wants you to think is a slowplay or TT. He sure as shiit doesn't have a set with all that flop action and the opportunity to get it ALL in the middle. Not to mention a free card would be suicide in a 3way pot that large. I agree. He has hearts or pair+draw and is trying to blow you off your kings.

Also...the pot is $31,500 and you have to call $12k laying you 2.6:1 which are pretty good odds considering all the variables.

I'd call...hope it worked out.

Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

Well, if I could magically get to showdown without putting in any more money, I would. Youre saying check the turn? And then do what when he inevitably bets? I think bet/fold is far superior to check/fold.

-Evan

Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

If villain is good enough to mix up his play and push w/ JhTh or w/e u do beat on the turn he is also good enough to just call w/ a set/34 on the flop assuming you'll bet at least something on the turn. I'm not saying this is a fold, just that it is in no way a clearcut decision. Seeing as the pot is laying you 2.6-1, and you have 2 outs at least 95% of the time (cmon how often does he really have 34 here) Your equity cant be that bad. I'd say your probably ahead at least 1/3 times here(assuming i take your description on him to be correct), altho he does outdraw, and there is still a good chance that the bb has you beat, or will after the river. All this factors into a ridiculously tough decision which i would need to know villain better to answer accurately, although it appears to be a call- albeit a very close one.

P.S. Betting the turn is definitely the right line- at first glance i like your betsize, but im sure that an argument could be made for both larger and smaller bets

Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

im not understanding the turn bet size.

the pot is $16k, you have $15k left on a drawtastic board.

im liking either check folding or betting enough to commit yourself, like 9k-11k. i think you need to make a decision before you bet on the turn whether you think you are good here, and then bet accordingly.


im trying to lower these stakes in my head when analyzing this hand, bc it seems crazy to put in $15,000 more on the turn with one pair, but with that pot size on the turn, im either getting the rest in or nothing at all.

your bet size looks like you want a cheap showdown, and an aggro player might have tried to take advantage of that.

as it is now, pot $35k, 12k to call, its a tough fold against a crzy player.

Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, what do you do facing the push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would decide what I thought the button had and go from there. Really, that's all you can do.

Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?
 

tough hand here.
i think youre just begging for it with that tiny turn bet... dont like that.
check/fold.
checkraise allin.
bet at least 10K.
those seem to be the reasonable choices...
as played, very tough to call this allin, but if you feel like the guy marked himself with a draw by flat calling behind you, pay him off...
i think most good players wouldnt raise 66/55 on the flop, after choosing to flat call the first time around, so im prob mucking here, but id be pretty unhappy about the way this went down.