Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

[/ QUOTE ]

Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jags will easily be the worst AFC playoff team. Given that the Pats will have to win 3 games, the easiest playoff route involves the Jags.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I know. That wasn't my point.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

[ QUOTE ]
I suppose one could run a quick scenario analysis based on expected spreads and the corresponding moneylines. I'm too lazy to run the EV equations, but it could be interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok Clark, I bit. I did 2 scenarios, based on some really rough guesswork on expected spreads, and the corresponding implied chance of victory for each team. I've never done this before, so critiques appreciated. This is going to be long, so go get a beer.

in scenario one (Pats as #4 seeds)

I made them a 4.5 to 6.5 favorite over Jax, which would make them winners 68% of the time. I then made them 8 to 9 point dogs at Indy. They would have a 21% chance of winning this game, but they only make it to Indy 68% of the time. So, they will advance to the championship game 14% of the time.

As to their final opponent, for simplicity sake (and probably not too far off from reality) I made Pitt/Cincy bascially 50/50, and Denver vs winner of Pitt/Cincy a pick em as well. So, the Pats would have a 50% chance of playing Denver, and a 25% chance of playing Pitt or Cincy. I made the Pats a 1-2 point dog at Denver (50% chance of winning), a 2.5 - 4 point favorite over Pitt (61% chance of winning), and a pick em at Cinci (50%). The weighted averages of these % of victories, when weighed against the % chance they actually play these teams (50%*50%)+(61%*25%)+(50%*25%) = 53%. But since there is only a 14% chance they play in this game, the Pats overall chance of making the SB is (53%*14%) = 8%

On to scenario 2: [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I have the Pats as small favs against the Steelers, and about 50/50 at the Broncos. So, a 31% chance of advancing to the AFC championship. I approximated that the Pats would have an 80% chance of facing the Colts, a 15% chance of facing the Cinci, and a 5% chance of facing the Jags. I estimated the Pats would beat the Colts 21% of the time, the Jags 68% of the time, and Cinci 61% of the time, leaving a weighted average of advancement % of 30%. 30% times the 31% chance that they make it to this game gives them a 9% chance (compared to 8% in scenario one).

so.....I give the slight edge to Scenario 2 (Pats #3), although it's very close, and it really depends on the assumptions you make.

feel free to critique, as I'm not sure this is all correct.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

[/ QUOTE ]

Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jags will easily be the worst AFC playoff team. Given that the Pats will have to win 3 games, the easiest playoff route involves the Jags.

[/ QUOTE ]
The Jags could be the worst team in the AFC playoffs, but they're still far from a bye. They played the Colts twice and gave them tougher games than New England or Pittsburgh, and arguably Cincy too. Anyone taking them lightly is asking for trouble.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

[/ QUOTE ]

Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jags will easily be the worst AFC playoff team. Given that the Pats will have to win 3 games, the easiest playoff route involves the Jags.

[/ QUOTE ]
The Jags could be the worst team in the AFC playoffs, but they're still far from a bye. They played the Colts twice and gave them tougher games than New England or Pittsburgh, and arguably Cincy too. Anyone taking them lightly is asking for trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, maybe I shouldn't have said quasi-bye. however, if they're not the worst afc playoff team, then who is?

also, Jax has historically played Indy tough, and we all know that both the Pats and Steelers are playing MUCH better than when either team played the Colts, so you can't just compare the teams this way.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't speak for everyone, but as a Patriots fan, I *WANT* to play the Colts. It's going to Denver that I want no part of. I don't think beating the Colts in Indy would be that much more difficult than beating the Broncos in Denver (I'm in no way saying that either feat is easy or even probable though.)

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anything?
 

If they are playing for an injury to an important player, they just got it.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

[ QUOTE ]
If they are playing for an injury to an important player, they just got it.

[/ QUOTE ]

who?

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

[ QUOTE ]
who?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tedy Bruschi tweaked an ankle or knee. Had to help him off and he couldn't put any weight on it. They just said he is out for the game.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
who?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tedy Bruschi tweaked an ankle or knee. Had to help him off and he couldn't put any weight on it. They just said he is out for the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe it. Bruschi would saw off the bad leg and sew on a replacement if necessary. I call BS.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

No, Bruschi's hurt. Belichick says his hamstring tightened up which probably means they already gave Tedy his last rites.