Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

The first half of this month for me contained around a 5000 hand downswing. As a result, I feel like my play has been experiencing a slight shift towards 'weak-tight'. A particular topic I've been reviewing is value-betting on the river.

I think this is a good place for anyone in a downswing to start reviewing. Many times our downswings are cluttered with runner-runner draws that beat our AA or TPTK. Or the third flush card that hits the river after one or more players have been check/calling the whole way. When these situations begin to pile up it can very quickly lead to a lot of rivers get check/called or checked-behind in an effort to conserver a BB and not pay of the donks that just "got there".

Since there are several hands I've decided to poll the river action on each hand. I've tried to include some general reads on my villian's (numbers are VP$IP/PFR). All tables are from the Party 2/4 and are typical loose/neutral tables (Table VP$IP 29-35; Table Avg PFR 3-7).

Please feel free to post comments on any/all streets of the hands as well.
<ul type="square"> [*]Hand #1
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO (Fish 28/0) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls (44/5), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.
Flop: (7 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls.
Turn: (5 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls.
River: (8 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero...
[*]Hand #2
Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Button (unknown) calls, SB (unknown) completes, Hero checks.
Flop: (3 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls.
Turn: (3 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls.
River: (6 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero...
[*]Hand #3
Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB (unknown) calls.
Flop: (4.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.
Turn: (3.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.
River: (5.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...
[*]Hand #4
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG (33/2) calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO (28/5) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.
Flop: (4 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, CO calls, SB folds.
Turn: (3.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, CO calls.
River: (5.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...
[*]Hand #5
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 (55/22 - LAG) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB (38/19 - LAG) raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, SB folds.
Flop: (9 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls.
Turn: (8 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.
River: (10 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...
[*]Hand #6
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB (52/0 - Loose/Passive) calls.
Flop: (4.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.
Turn: (3.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.
River: (5.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...[/list]

Re: Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

Hand 2 is the only close one IMO.

Re: Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

I said
Bet
Check
Check
Check
Bet
Bet

I really want to bet hand #4 but it's hard for me to put the CO on a worse hand that will call, unless he's one of those guys who calls down with K-high.

Re: Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

Hand 1: Bet-- Lots of stuff here to call you that you beat, especially against a couple of fish.

Hand 2: Check-- Betting doesn't accomplish much as few worse hands will call and few better hands will fold.

Hand 3: Bet-- (I voted check, but now I'm flip-flopping) We would have heard from most hands that beat us by now (a 5 or 7 would have bet/raised somewhere, I'd think and a pocket pair isn't realistic). If he has spades and check-raises, we can comfortably fold. I think this is a good board for him to have called down with overs.

Hand 4: Bet-- Much the same reasoning as 3 and even more so as there are a few more hands that would call down (6s with a worse kicker).

Hand 5: Bet-- Easiest of the lot. You have a very good hand against someone who hasn't shown much aggression-- especially given your read.

Hand 6: Bet-- Lots of stuff for a LP to have: any T or K... (perhaps KT).

(Edited to correct for board mis-read.)

Re: Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 4: Bet-- Much the same reasoning as 3 and even more so as there are more hands that would call down (5s and 6s with a worse kicker).

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone with a 5 has trips on the river, bub. Do you still value bet #4?

For hand #3:[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a good board for him to have called down with overs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Perhaps, does that mean he'll call a river bet with A-high?

I need to find more river value-bets myself, so please feel free (everyone) to throw in your opinions here.

Re: Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 is the only close one IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
Close to what? Care to elaborate on any of them?

Re: Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I said
Bet
Check
Check
Check
Bet
Bet


[/ QUOTE ]

me too. Also, I'm not even involved in that A7 at the end.

Re: Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

1) No, we cant fold to a raise, he will bet any hand for us given stats, the king and flush are scary. With a more passive opponent this is a value bet.
2) No, we have a 6-hi flush now, he will call and/or raise with a higher flush.
3) No, any piece of this board beats us, the only hands that may pay off are high aces, or they may fold.
4) can you bet/fold this one?
5)for sure value bet
6)id value bet this, although u are probably splitting this pot.

Pplz let me know if i am way off

Re: Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

[ QUOTE ]

Anyone with a 5 has trips on the river, bub. Do you still value bet #4?


[/ QUOTE ]
Duh. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
I do still value bet it, though. On 3 and 4 I think the low board will encourage plenty of people to call us down with A-high, even on the river.

Re: Value Betting (6 Hands)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not even involved in that A7 at the end.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm raising any ace in the HiJack when it's folded to me somewhere around 100% of the time.

EDIT: OK - maybe not 100% of the time. But a VERY large percentage. Even loose players can find the fold button - so the CO/Button need to really be super-loose (and probably have a decent AF) for me to open-fold this hand in this situation.