Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

I’ve been analyzing this post by Scuba Chuck. In the very last paragraph he writes this:

[ QUOTE ]
But back to the bigstack (‘cos we’re discussing proper bubble play). As you can see, in theory, bigstack doesn’t want to win this hand against shorty, as he transfers 21.6% of $EV to the other two stacks. (You can see that shorty has 24.4% of equity if he wins, but if big stack wins, he only gains 2.8% of equity) So in theory, again, bigstack really does not want to have a good hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

On to the hand:

Preflop, the $EV of each stack is:
Seat 2: axbear ( $770 ) 20.9%
Seat 3: Hero ( $6420 ) 42.2%
Seat 9: galziegrl ( $2660 ) 32.6%
Seat 10: rrichone ( $150 ) 4.3%

Assume that shorty has top 50% of hands, perhaps 30% and 2d stack has any 2. If I fold, and shorty wins against 2d stack, shorty has 450 chips. Then assume I raise on the next hand, with a worse hand, and try and funnel chips to shorty, keeping the bubble alive to increase my $EV.

Also, if I fold and 2d stack wins the transfer of $EV is fairly irrelevant.

Thoughts?


***** Hand History for Game 2322140396 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13712624 Level:8 Blinds(200/400)
Table Table 12197 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: axbear ( $770 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $6420 )
Seat 9: galziegrl ( $2660 )
Seat 10: rrichone ( $150 )
Trny:13712624 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 6c 6d ]

Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

Scuba Chuck's analysis was wrong, as I pointed out in his post.

Losing to shorty to keep the bubble alive has been discussed before. I'm not a big fan of the idea cause I think you'll get spite calls, but YMMV.

Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

if u are willing to be aggressive, then keeping shorty alive can be really good...the midstacks will fold to u all day long cause they want itm, even if they are mad at u for folding...half the time they'll think u are just a stupid donk so won't spite call u; the other half they'll wanna spite call u but won't wanna lose out on the cash, so won't

but if u purposefully keep shorty alive on the bubble, u better be aggressive and get that ev back (and then some) by bullying those mid stacks

it also works best when shorty is the seat before u, so you can bully the midstacks 50% of the hands without worrying that shorty acting after u may call

Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

lol, youre not actually counting on other players having the correct calling range??? becuase that would be really moronic.

Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol, youre not actually counting on other players having the correct calling range??? becuase that would be really moronic.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF are you talking about?

Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

Im talking about the statement that big stack wants to lose the showdown, that statement counts on the other stacks to play correcty.

Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im talking about the statement that big stack wants to lose the showdown, that statement counts on the other stacks to play correcty.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for your input.

Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

I wrote up something longer, but in short, I think it's alright to let the small stack stick around, because you are likely to be able to pick up one more round of steals due to the fact that no one wants to bust here.

(and this is all you would lose, one steals worth of chips)

In fact, I'll often fold to the small stack in the BB if I can in order to keep pushing with my giant stack.


Edit: I don't care if he knows it or not, but to be correct, his calling ranges would have to be sooooo tight, that it could be more profitable for you to employ this tactic. (of course, I'm not sure, but I suppose) So tight to the tune of AA/KK.

Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

[ QUOTE ]
Scuba Chuck's analysis was wrong, as I pointed out in his post.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with your point. Here the blinds are worth > 10% $EV and will go up in value on the next level.

Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Scuba Chuck's analysis was wrong, as I pointed out in his post.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with your point. Here the blinds are worth > 10% $EV and will go up in value on the next level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba Chuck was simply misunderstanding EV, and he was wrong, and you are wrong if you agree with him.

If your point is that it's worth giving up some EV now for the prospect of EV later, that's open for debate, as this thread, and many others, show.