stupid bet?
 

$1-$2 pacific, UTG has proved to be a tight solid player.

Hero is SB with A-Jo

UTG calls, 3 limpers, hero raises, BB folds, UTG reraises, all call.

Flop: K,Q,J rainbow

hero checks, UTG bets, limpers call (19SB's), hero calls

turn: 3. hero checks, UTG bets, all call (14BB's)
river: A. hero bets

Do you think it's worth a bluff attempt here to try get what looks like a set, or A-K 2 pair to fold? Or is this a check/fold every time?

Re: stupid bet?
 

okay, i'll stick my neck out on this one:

that pot is big enought to call for your 4 outer even if it is a split due to all those donators in the hand. i really don't like the river bet at all. you lose to any ten and any overpair at this point.

i don't know if it is check/fold every time, but your read makes me think he's not limp/reraising here with KQ and no it is very doubtful you're getting AK or a set to fold here.

Re: stupid bet?
 

I dont like betting here. I think check/fold check/call is more optimal. If you check, UTG will probably bet and if one of the limpers start to go nuts, you know they probably made a straight with a T. If UTG bets, and limpers call, I probably call and and hate myself for it.

Re: stupid bet?
 

I dont think that you would be likely to get UTG to fold. You are behind any conceivable hand that he might have. In fact you are behind AA - TT, AK & AQ.

You also have 3 limpers still in the hand, and I expect that one of them probably has a T and made the straight on the river.

So I would just check/fold even though the pot is big.

Re: stupid bet?
 

yes

Re: stupid bet?
 

If UTG is indeed a tight & solid player, he has to think real hard before calling your river donk without a straight. The pot is obviously big enough, but he has three players yet to act behind him, either or both of which could raise and force him to fold. For this reason, I like your lead bet.

You didn't give reads on the 3 limpers, but assuming none of them are crazy LAGs, this has to be a bet/fold scenario, of course.

Re: stupid bet?
 

Good bet.

Re: stupid bet?
 

do you guys saying the bet was good think that villian may fold? or are you thinking we maybe ahead?

What range do you put him on? The whole limp reraise thing always throws me off. Plus he has just bet when checked to the whole time, so we really have a tough time putting him on a hand. I guess the river bet only has to get him to fold a small % of times for it to be profitable.

Is this a bet/fold, bet/call?

Re: stupid bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Is this a bet/fold, bet/call?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you really want to bet this river as a bluff into 4 players, then I think you should fold to a raise.

However, I would just like to mention that the more players that are left in a hand, the less a bluff is likely to succeed.

Re: stupid bet?
 

I think the villian may fold a hand like AK/AQ and there's a chance we have a better hand - LRR's are extremely unpredictable, I wouldn't be surprised if he was betting the whole time with just the ace/gutshot (I was against one of these last night). It would be very difficult for anyone to raise this bet without a T, especially since there are 4 players who have been drawing since the flop. It's also a value bet against KQ/KJ/QJ which are possible lrr hands. If the villian raises, the most likely hand I'd give him is a set or straight AA-TT and it would be a fold imho.

Actually though, the more I think about it, the more I'm thinking check/fold may be a better line here. With 3 callers on this board it seems very likely someone has a T here and since any T is the nuts they aren't folding. I'd probably check and call if the action is bet/fold/fold/fold.