KC @ Dallas
 

DAL -3

The best I can tell Dallas should be like a 3.5 or 4 point favorite.

What would ya'll think about betting Dallas and buying it down to 2.5 for a -120 vig on the play? +EV or sucker play?

Re: KC @ Dallas
 

Two good teams that need wins to stay in the playoff race. I would stay clear of this game.

Dal needs to run the ball well because they have been having trouble in pass protection and Bledsoe has been throwing some picks. KC has been good against the run and their pass rush has been good with a ball hawking secondary. KC runs the ball down your throat with a big offensive line and Larry Johnson. Dal defense is solid against the run, plus big offensive lineman have trouble against 3-4 run defenses. Roy Williams is a tough match-up for Gonzo. Newman on Kennison is prety even as well.

I'm not sure where you get your system from, but this looks to me exactly like they have it. Two dead even teams. The home team gives a field goal.

Re: KC @ Dallas
 

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I'm not sure where you get your system from, but this looks to me exactly like they have it. Two dead even teams. The home team gives a field goal.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I handicap my pointspreads is pretty simple, but it seems to do ok for lack of a better method.

(Points For) + (Points Against) / Sample Size

Do this for both teams, and find the difference between these two numbers. This gives me a basic line to further adjust.

This late in the season, I just use this seasons games.
Early on in the season I take the second half of the previous season and really look at the personnel changes.

So, on that Dallas game, KC has a base rating of +3.5, and Dallas is a +4. Then I modify this value for homefield advantage, injuries, and any key matchups. In this case, I gave Dallas 3 for homefield, hence the DAL -3.5. Perhaps a bit simplistic to you sharper cats, but I'm 14-11-1 against the spread. I've only seriously bet this season, so so-far-so-good.

Oh yeah...I look for good lines based on the guidelines in "Gambling For a Living", ie. 2 points off what I think they should be.

Re: KC @ Dallas
 

DVOA and Sagarin both make me think Kansas City +3 is a strong play. I actually think it's one of only two good bets this week (along with Chicago +6, which I think is the best line of the year).

Re: KC @ Dallas
 

Yeah, I like that Chicago +6 a lot. I'm betting that for sure.

I can't see how the KC +3 is strong, but then I don't know what the hell DVOA and Sagarin are. So I'll do my homework and see what's up.

Re: KC @ Dallas
 

DVOA

Rough guide to making a line from these: Home field is worth 15%. 1% is worth 0.21 points.

Sagarin

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] predictor.

Basically, I think that I'm not smart enough to evaluate lines through my own intuition. I don't watch enough entire games or have enough experience. So I just use computers, but they work very well.

Re: KC @ Dallas
 

Hey......that's pretty much how my homework got done in school too! Thanks.

Re: KC @ Dallas
 

What is predictor?

Edit: Never mind, I see it's a Sagarin thing. I was just curious bc I wrote a program a couple years ago to get pointspreads from sportsbooks and do the math with the sagarin ratings for every team and look for trends, it was called predictor as well. I thought it didn't work, but I was too dumb to know if it did or didn't.

Re: KC @ Dallas
 

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DVOA

Rough guide to making a line from these: Home field is worth 15%. 1% is worth 0.21 points.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, home field is worth 17% according to Aaron. Also, 1% point is worth 0.215 points, to be exact.