AJo
 

Canterbury 8/16 9 handed
EP is drunk. I don't know much about him, but earlier he raised in EP with 69o. Other dude I have played with, but remember nothing about his game.

EP raises, I 3-bet with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], other dude is next in and CC's 3 bets. EVeryone else clears out and EP calls.

Flop 3 ways: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
EP checks, I bet, other dude calls, EP now raises, I tank and then call, other dude calls.

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
EP bets, I call, other dude raises, EP calls, I tank again and then call.

River: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

EP checks, I check, other dude bets, EP calls, I raise, other dude says nice catch and calls, EP folds. Thoughts on all streets please.

Re: AJo
 

my first thought is to raise the turn...we most likely have the best hand unless EP has 98 or a straight, he seems aggro enough that he would have just bet the flop with an A though, or even any pair...

Re: AJo
 

I like either 3-betting the flop or raising the turn. It feels you're ahead of EP a good deal and you want the third guy out.

Re: AJo
 

I like 3 betting the flop to try to issolate EP.

Re: AJo
 

Preflop: Standard, you have a great hand against a drunks range. Postflop, theres two lines I like, either 3 betting the flop, or just calling the flop with the intention of raising the turn. You must choose one. In this large pot you cannot afford to allow the 3rd guy to stay in here, you must make this a 2 player contest to give your hand the best chance possible of taking this pot down. I prefer 3 betting the flop to try to make this a heads up confrontation before the turn card. On the turn, when you just call and the other guy wakes up and raises, this is a very ominous sign. Given that this player cold called 3 bets preflop, smooth called the flop, and now raises the turn, this smells of pocket 88's or 66's or AK or a turned set of 99's. Although you are getting 13-1 to call this turn raise, I think its time to fold, you will be drawing dead too often to make calling correct even given these huge pot odds. Given that you called the turn, I really dont like your river play, this is not a good time to go for the checkraise becuz there is still too strong of a chance that you will be 3 bet by a better hand and you will have to call, I think you are much better off betting the river and calling a raise than going for the checkraise here.

Re: AJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are much better off betting the river and calling a raise than going for the checkraise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AJo
 

I'd also b/c the river. There were a lot of draws available on the turn and it might have been a sketchy semi-bluff. I don't trust him to bet the river 100% of the time here, and also don't want to open myself up to a 3-bet vs a set. The rest looks good.

Re: AJo
 

I feel like just following you around and quoting your posts instead of trying to say the same thing myself, but less aptly.

-DeathDonkey

Re: AJo
 

I really liked reading your analysis and made me concentrate and think about this hand more.

Are you sure enough to fold the turn here with those odds?
Besides the possible hands you gave, how about a suited ace and he has matched his rag kicker on flop or turn. Do you feel this is equally possible?

Or KQs and trying to semi-bluff ( I know looks like a value raise, but maybe trying to set up taking it away on the river? ) I guess part of this judgement would be how you thinks Dude views you as a player. What level of thinking he puts you on? Because disguising the semibluff as a value bet based on what he thinks you think he's thinking would be a good play? What are your thoughts? I'm afraid I outthink myself sometimes and call on a turn like this when maybe I should be folding.

Re: AJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really liked reading your analysis and made me concentrate and think about this hand more.

Are you sure enough to fold the turn here with those odds?
Besides the possible hands you gave, how about a suited ace and he has matched his rag kicker on flop or turn. Do you feel this is equally possible?

Or KQs and trying to semi-bluff ( I know looks like a value raise, but maybe trying to set up taking it away on the river? ) I guess part of this judgement would be how you thinks Dude views you as a player. What level of thinking he puts you on? Because disguising the semibluff as a value bet based on what he thinks you think he's thinking would be a good play? What are your thoughts? I'm afraid I outthink myself sometimes and call on a turn like this when maybe I should be folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
First off, folding a top pair type hand on the turn for one more bet against an unknown getting 13-1 is generally a bad play, the pot is simply too big to fold especially when you consider that you have many outs against many two pair type hands, and you almost have the odds to spike your kicker alone in case youre outkicked, and there is also around a 10% chance the villain could be semi-bluffing/bluffing. All that said, I think pokerbob's situation is an exception and heres why: We can eliminate all bluffs/semibluffs since the villain is raising the turn after two people have committed a turn bet(The villain would have to be crazy to make this play especially when you consider that the drunk is never folding, since pokerbob has no read on villain I will assume he's not crazy). The villain is very unlikely to have 2 pair on this board since he cold called 3bets preflop unless hes really loose(Again with no read on him, I would assume rightly or wrongly that he is not that loose) and based on my playing experience the hand that the typical opponent loves to cold call 3 bets with preflop is pocket pairs(probably becuz these hands are so easy to play postflop, and people like that "hitting the lottery feeling" they get when their card hits the flop). This is why I think there is such a high probability that the villain has a set given the action of the hand. Finally I dont think the villain is thinking on any kind of advanced level, I think he is raising this turn cuz he likes his hand alot(once again another assumption on my part) So as you can see my analysis is based on 3 key assumptions
1. The villain is not crazy enough to semibluff here
2. The villain isnt THAT loose to have 2 pair on this board
3. The villain is only thinking about his hand
If any of my assumptions are wrong then Bob would be incorrect to fold the turn. But in the heat of battle, I have no choice but to go by my judgement, whether it be right or wrong, and based on my judgement I think Bob should fold the turn even though he is getting 13-1.