TPMK type hands HU
 

You hold AT and you believe your villain may also hold an ace. HU to the flop...(Suits are unimportant in this ex.)

Flop comes A96. You have top pair and a *moderate-to-strong* kicker heads up. This is a strong hand.

But wait, how strong is it, really? Of course, there is always the probability that he holds AJ, AQ, AK, AA for a better hand that you may end up paying off to a showdown, but he can also hold A9 and A6 as well, and you are behind. If the turn comes 8 and river comes 4, then his kicker can now be a: 4, 6, 8, 9, J, Q, K, A all of which beat you.

Only if he holds A2, A3, A5, A7 do you win (If he indeed does have an ace).

So as you can see, IF he holds an ace, you are likely to be about 50/50 on a flop like this, and when 2 more undercards come on the turn and river, then you are likely to lose. Again, this is ONLY assuming he has an ace in his hand.

Sorry if this seems very obvious to some people, which I'm sure it is, but I just started really realizing this on these types of hands. Flopping TP with a good kicker is usually GREAT heads up, but when you put your villain on TP as well, then you can see that you may have several bullets to dodge in order to hold the winning hand at showdown. Hopefully this helps some playas out who have not perhaps realized this yet.

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Re: TPMK type hands HU
 

thats where reads and pf play come into consideration big time

Re: TPMK type hands HU
 

What happens if a T comes on the turn or river?
And aren't these 3 outs the same 3 outs the Ax player has of getting his x?
And aren't there more x's below T than above T if neither T or x comes or if both x and T come?

So I would say AT is still a pretty good hand HU, even when you know the other player has an A.

Count Cards, Not Card Ranks
 

Count cards, not card ranks.

If you know your opponent holds at least one ace, the flop is A 9 6, and you hold AT, then there is one way your opponent can hav AA, eight each for AK through AJ, and six each for A9 and A6, for a total of 37 ways you can be beat on the flop. There are six ways your opponent can have AT for a tie. There are eight ways each for A8 and A5-A2 for a total of 48 ways you can have your opponent beat.

When all is said and done you are something like an 6:5 equity favorite on the flop. I'm counting on my fingers to figure this, someone might want to plug hand ranges into Pokerstove to get an exact number.

And, of course, before the flop, if you have AT and know your opponent has at least one ace, your edge is even larger.

Re: Count Cards, Not Card Ranks
 

[ QUOTE ]

If you know your opponent holds at least one ace, the flop is A 9 6, and you hold AT, then there is one way your opponent can hav AA, eight each for AK through AJ, and six each for A9 and A6, for a total of 37 ways you can be beat on the flop. There are six ways your opponent can have AT for a tie. There are eight ways each for A8 and A5-A2 for a total of 48 ways you can have your opponent beat.

When all is said and done you are something like an 6:5 equity favorite on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I said in the OP that on the flop you are "about 50/50". Your numbers are more correct though, as I knew you would still be ahead most of the time. 6:5 seems more accurate.

But when the turn and river also bring uncoordinated undercards, you become something like a 2:1 dog by showdown. Right?

Re: TPMK type hands HU
 

[ QUOTE ]
What happens if a T comes on the turn or river?
And aren't these 3 outs the same 3 outs the Ax player has of getting his x?
And aren't there more x's below T than above T if neither T or x comes or if both x and T come?

So I would say AT is still a pretty good hand HU, even when you know the other player has an A.

[/ QUOTE ]

If a T comes on river you are probably good, of course. But I don't think this will happen enough to negate what was already stated.

If neither player improves after the flop, then you can assume that you are probably good b/c T is "better than average".

If you don't improve, however, you cannot be certain whether or not he improved. And if he didn't, was his kicker outranked by yours to begin with?

If your opponent TOLD you he held an ace, and the board came as such, then chances are you lose.

Re: TPMK type hands HU
 

This is almost like the "Monty Hall Problem", you are correct, it would be +EV to switch hands with your opponent, given that you didn't hit and you know that the other hand has an Ace also.

But most of the betting takes place before this situation occurs, when you still have the advantage. You can't not bet the flop or turn thinking this river situation might occur.

Re: TPMK type hands HU
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is almost like the "Monty Hall Problem", you are correct, it would be +EV to switch hands with your opponent, given that you didn't hit and you know that the other hand has an Ace also.

But most of the betting takes place before this situation occurs, when you still have the advantage. You can't not bet the flop or turn thinking this river situation might occur.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct, I didn't mean to imply this whatsoever. It's just something that has taken me a while to really realize. You get to river and think "I still have TP with good kicker" but then you realize so many kickers (even lower ones now) have you beaten.

If this was a limit hand, should you then not bet this river HU? If you really believe they hold an ace than I assume so. Check/call should be the answer in position.

Plus, if you've been betting the flop and turn in position with an ace on board and villain has called, then he likely wouldn't bet any 2nd pair or lower on the river after you've checked.

Check/call the river everytime in this case?

Re: TPMK type hands HU
 

I think check/call is correct with unimproved ace, IF YOU KNOW YOU ARE UP AGAINST ANOTHER ACE. But how do you know this?

The answer is "it depends". Would the other player passively just call if his ace/kicker did hit instead of raising? Would the other player put you on two overs and call down with second pair? (and might bet the river if you check your ace?)

So it depends on what kind of hands the other player has shown and they have played them.

Absent reads, and being reasonably sure you are up against another ACE, check/call the river is the safe route.

Re: TPMK type hands HU
 

From PokerStove:

Board: Ac 9d 6h
equity(%)win(%) tie(%)
Hand 1: 54.5% 48.32% 06.15% { ATo }
Hand 2: 45.5% 39.39% 06.15% { AA, A2s+, A2o+ }

So if your only assumption is that opponent has an A and ignore all information from opponent's betting actions, then you are a solid favorite to be ahead at the river.

But if the turn is a small card, you are no longer a favorite:
Board: Ac 9d 6h 3s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:49.9% 46.52% 03.38% {ATo}
Hand 2:50.1% 46.72% 03.38% {AA, A2s+, A2o+ }

And if the river is another small card that misses you, you are a big underdog:

Board: Ac 9d 6h 3s 8s
equity (%) win (%)tie (%)
Hand 1:40.3% 36.80% 03.45% { ATo }
Hand 2:59.7% 56.29% 03.45% { AA, A2s+, A2o+ }

I tried several different small cards for the turn and river and the results were almost identical. So I guess- No you should not bet the river if you know your opponent started with Ax and nothing in his betting suggests that he missed.

Interesting.