Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

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I'd usually bet/fold the river.

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what hand range are you putting villian on? The only reasonable hand that villian could have that I beat is KQ. If I bet out on the river I think I am going to get raised a hell of a lot and am basically just donating a BB to CO.

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

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I'd usually bet/fold the river.

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what hand range are you putting villian on? The only reasonable hand that villian could have that I beat is KQ. If I bet out on the river I think I am going to get raised a hell of a lot and am basically just donating a BB to CO.

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It's six max, right? The guy could have been raising with lots of different hands. Hell, he might even have a jack or pocket kings, and fold thinking he's now behind that ace on the river. If you are betting all along, and that ace doesn't slow you down, if he raises it's an easy fold. Meanwhile, if you check, you are inviting basically any hand to bluff at the pot, and you have to fold anyway. I agree that if he calls the bet, you are probably going to lose, but the pot is big enough that it may be a larger mistake to fold for the one bet on the river. That being said, I'd rather bet than call this river.

Let's say the CO has 10-J. You bet the river. Is he calling? Without a read that he's a calling station, there's a pretty good chance he's folding. I bet though for the reasons explained a little earlier.

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

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I'd usually bet/fold the river.

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what hand range are you putting villian on? The only reasonable hand that villian could have that I beat is KQ. If I bet out on the river I think I am going to get raised a hell of a lot and am basically just donating a BB to CO.

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Without reads, I'm not assuming right off that he's got a reasonable hand or that he'd play in a reasonable way. Even if his raising range preflop is standard, there's no reason to assume his postflop play is any good at all.

For example, many players at this level turn passive with top pair in the face of one flop raise. Say he did this with TT, scared you had a set but willing to call down, and now the ace hits and you bet right out. Might he fold?

Say he has KT, didn't fold the flop to the checkraise because no one does at this limit, and called the turn with his gutshot. Is it possible he may bluff when you check the river ace?

K9s? Again, passive on flop with top pair when reraised. Might fold to the river ace.

I know, these aren't as likely as many of the other holdings, and it's very likely villian has the Axh.

It is seeming pretty thin as I go over it. He'll probably call the river for one more bet with any better hand. I guess I'm not convinced that he doesn't bluff a busted draw here enough to fold this river.

I hate working without reads. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

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I'd usually bet/fold the river.

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what hand range are you putting villian on? The only reasonable hand that villian could have that I beat is KQ. If I bet out on the river I think I am going to get raised a hell of a lot and am basically just donating a BB to CO.

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The guy could have been raising with lots of different hands. Hell, he might even have a jack or pocket kings, and fold thinking he's now behind that ace on the river.

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I don't know about this logic, I showed all of my aggression prior to there being an ace on the board.

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

You're assuming his raising hand had to have contained an ace then, right? Is he that predictable? You made my point, you showed all of your aggression before the ace showed up. By checking that river, you may as well have sent up flares saying, I had a pair that is less than aces now, but I am scared, so bet your pocket sixes and watch me fold!

I said if he calls, it's unlikely you're winning, but do you really want to fold that river for one bet? That takes quite a narrow read that the guy only raises (or bets the river) with an ace. If that's the case, then, sure it's correct to check/fold.

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

Anyone 3 bet 88 from SB to try to get it HU?

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

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Your assuming his raising hand had to have contained an ace then, right? Is he that predictable? You made my point, you showed all of your aggression before the ace showed up. By checking that river, you may as well have sent up flares saying, I had a pair that is less than aces now, but I am scared, so bet your pocket sixes and watch me fold!

I said if he calls, it's unlikely you're winning, but do you really want to fold that river for one bet? That takes quite a narrow read that the guy only raises (or bets the river) with an ace. If that's the case, then, sure it's correct to check/fold.

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I think vibesman makes a good point that any straight draw is going to bluff at me on the river. The question is how of does he have KT? I think TT may also fold on this river, but still that is pretty close because I showed my aggresion on the flop when TT was an overpair. I could easily be c/r that flop with 9 high. There is no way he is folding QQ or KK. And if he caught a jack on the turn I am also assuming he would call the river bet and if the river didn't come the ace, I might be worried about a raise on the river too. Either way, this is my reasoning more or less, why I think it is pretty safe to c/f this.

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

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Your assuming his raising hand had to have contained an ace then, right? Is he that predictable? You made my point, you showed all of your aggression before the ace showed up. By checking that river, you may as well have sent up flares saying, I had a pair that is less than aces now, but I am scared, so bet your pocket sixes and watch me fold!

I said if he calls, it's unlikely you're winning, but do you really want to fold that river for one bet? That takes quite a narrow read that the guy only raises (or bets the river) with an ace. If that's the case, then, sure it's correct to check/fold.

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I think vibesman makes a good point that any straight draw is going to bluff at me on the river. The question is how of does he have KT? I think TT may also fold on this river, but still that is pretty close because I showed my aggresion on the flop when TT was an overpair. I could easily be c/r that flop with 9 high. There is no way he is folding QQ or KK. And if he caught a jack on the turn I am also assuming he would call the river bet and if the river didn't come the ace, I might be worried about a raise on the river too. Either way, this is my reasoning more or less, why I think it is pretty safe to c/f this.

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Look, it's definitely a close decision, but the reality is that for all intents and purposes, the only way you're taking down this pot is with a bet and his fold. If he calls, you're probably losing. if it's checked through, there are few hands you're beating other than KQ. If you check and he bets, you're folding, right? I think a bet wins this pot at least 12-15% of the time, which is all you need for it to be +EV.

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

thumbs up... if we posted this in shshshsushshsush i think the results of this poll would be reversed

Re: Thumbs up or down on this hand
 

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shshshsushshsush

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nh