A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Hey folks,

As one of the new team of crack SS mods, I figured I'd post a question I found interesting following some time spent playing the 15/30 game at the Wynn this weekend. It's something that will come up at a lot of levels, but will be particularly important for those of you at 3/6 and 5/10 moving up to higher levels where more of the play is heads-up.

Here's the scenario:

You open-raise UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. It folds around to the BB, who, like a lot of live low/mid limit players, is kind of slightly-loose-aggressive pre-flop and neutral post-flop (think 28/12/1.5 or so). The BB calls and the two of you see the flop for about 4.5 SB.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

BB checks, You bet, BB check-raises...


This exact hand came up this weekend. The interesting thing about it is that hero's hand is seemingly very hard to define. It is quite possible you have the best hand, and quite possible you have the best draw, but you'll rarely have both, and it's hard to decide which one you have. So you're in a sort of "Either/Or" situation (hence the title).

Here's the challenge. I encourage everyone to try it themselves before reading through the responses:

1. Estimate hero's equity. Do it in two ways. First, try and come up with a number without the aid of any tools--no paper, calculators, Pokerstove, whatever. Imagine you're at the table (or in front of your computer) and have 30 seconds or less to decide. Second, try and come up with a more analytical number. Use whatever tools necessary.

2. Come up with a plan for the rest of the hand. Consider what cards might come that would necessitate different plans.


Enjoy!

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

He'd be pretty lucky to have a Q AND a higher diamond than the T, so I think I'm just calling down. Maybe I'm hoping for a diamond, maybe I'm hoping to dodge it, but I have enough equity that I'm just calling down, having one bet go in on each street. I raise a T I think, else I just keep calling even if I catch the flush. Maybe if the A/K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]comes off I could think about a river raise/fold to a 3-bet, but if a neutrally-aggressive player bets I'm probably just calling.

As far as your questions...

1) I'm guessing around 40% or so. Figure QT-AQ, sets, JT, any A/K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x, or low made flushes.

2) I guess I made my plan above, I bet each street, raise/call a T, if I get check-raised on the turn, I think I call/fold the river UI. I'm least sure about that part.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

If I'm playing live I'll try to pay more attention to how villain looks rather than trying to crunch numbers in this situation. Lets see I'd figure he's either checkraising with a Q or a big diamond with a Q being more likely. How much more likely? I'm guess and say 65%Q, 25%Flush draw, 10% something else. Now getting 5.5:1 I don't think we can fold. Whew 30 seconds.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Thinking a bit more, I think I'm folding if it comes K,A no diamonds or something. If the river comes A(no diamond) and he bets, it might still be a fold.

Also, I'm a little more doubtful about value betting a river if checked to. I guess if I flush it I bet, but if I don't I'm doubting I'm getting much value out of it. If the turn/river bring lower cards I'm more apt to bet than if a K or A shows up.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Gut instinct answer: You slightly under 50% equity.

a small amount of math:

Villian has either a Q or a diamond draw better than yours. Estimating I'd say 2/3rds of the time it's a Q, 1/3rd it's a diamond draw. There's a one in three chance the diamond draw will come in by the river.

2/3rd's of the time you'll win 1/3rd of the time: 22% win
1/3rd of the time you'll win 2/3rds of the time: 22% win

Add them: 44% equity, rough estimate. I don't think i'd be doing the exact math in my head, but thinking along these lines tells me good enough for a call down.

My line is this: call flop, check/call on non-diamond turn and river, bet/fold diamond turn and river, unless this guy is capable of bluffing here.

NOTE: I think one important aspect to villians play which wasn't given is cold-calling range. Even for 28% saw flop, cold-calling ranges can vary significantly. This is one of the more important stats to figure out, especially live.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

He's the BB, defending his blind. How is he cold-calling?

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

My first guess was 45% equity. I honestly don't use pokerstove or twodimes, and don't plan to start right now. I know I should, and I will after finals is over. Don't ban me, k?

I'm calling every street, including the flop checkraise (I'm not 3 betting) but, depending on the opponent, I'm probably going to do a bit of acting so as to maximally induce future bluffs.

My thoughts on the turn:
If I see any diamonds, thats not good news for me on the river, because he's probably not betting both streets w/o a flush, and its going to be hard for me to be paid off w/o him having a flush. Once in a while, he'll have a hand with a queen and a small diamond, so that will make me happy.

I'm calling any diamond on the turn, and betting the river if checked to.

If a ten comes off I'll raise. If he 3 bets, I'll 4 bet. If he five bets I'll call, and raise if the board pairs on the end, but otherwise just call anything that comes.

River:
If a diamond comes on the turn, and he bets, and I call, I'll bet any river card if I'm checked to. If he bets on the river when a T comes, I raise, and call a 3 bet.

so 60% of the time this hand is going c/c/

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's the BB, defending his blind. How is he cold-calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my bad. Thought it was button.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

[ QUOTE ]

My line is this: call flop, check/call on non-diamond turn and river, bet/fold diamond turn and river, unless this guy is capable of bluffing here.

NOTE: I think one important aspect to villians play which wasn't given is cold-calling range. Even for 28% saw flop, cold-calling ranges can vary significantly. This is one of the more important stats to figure out, especially live.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, though villian was button, not BB.

Seeing as we're in position, I call down, and bet if checked to no matter what the cards.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Here's one thing to consider that a few of you haven't:

What if the turn or river is an A? What about a K?