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-   -   $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=393380)

Beck 12-07-2005 11:56 AM

$22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
I see a lot of posters who advocate going all in after a couple of limpers, making a steal. However in this situation UTG1 has shownat least som estrength by making a min-raise and UTG2 calling. I had no real read on them except typical $22 players.

***** Hand History for Game 3159479477 *****
50/100 TOURNEY TEXAS HOLD'EM GAME TABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 18065816) - WED DEC 07 08:52:57 EST 2005
Table Table 66817 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: sambrad (1695)
Seat 3: Iwam82 (1365)
Seat 4: MAHIII (1135)
Seat 5: Hero (655)
Seat 6: whiteshoes82 (720)
Seat 8: Eitshu (735)
Seat 9: hlavyIII (1015)
Seat 10: burlysmurf (680)
whiteshoes82 posts small blind (25)
Eitshu posts big blind (50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Profittt [ Td, Ts ]
hlavyIII folds.
burlysmurf raises (100) to 100
sambrad calls (100)
Iwam82 folds.
MAHIII folds.
Hero raises (655) to 655
Hero is all-In.

12-07-2005 12:05 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
PUSH it. If one of them has JJ-AA oh well, but the chances you are up against two overcards is high. You could steal without a showdown, be on the right side of a coinflip that would more than double your stack, or get screwed by your opponents holding something good. In the long run I say this move is profitable at the 22's

45suited 12-07-2005 12:08 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
insta-push

niko421 12-07-2005 12:15 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
I don't know about insta push... only because you are short stacked is it even a consideration. I like re raising and basically committing yourself.. unless the board comes AKQ you are going all in. I would probably re raise to 400... big enough to encourage callers, but small enough to make it look like you have monster... this way first position raiser, goes allin (maybe sensing weakness) with 99 or flods AJs or something...

niko421 12-07-2005 12:17 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
remeber it is a hand you want action on.... and action with a little raise you will get... the chip leader is going to fold if re re re raised

45suited 12-07-2005 12:20 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
[ QUOTE ]
remeber it is a hand you want action on.... and action with a little raise you will get... the chip leader is going to fold if re re re raised

[/ QUOTE ]\

Not so. There's 275 in the pot, almost half my stack. I'd be thrilled (on the off chance) to take this down w/o seeing a flop. I don't want to encourage action. If I get it, I hope to be heads up vs two overs or against an underpair of the chip drunk chip leader.

12-07-2005 12:24 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
IMO: UTG1's min raise doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but I'm guessing high cards, as high pairs usually raise more. UTG2 probably is re-raising AA-QQ, so he could have, i dunno, 77-JJ, or a couple of overcards. Sometimes he'll call your push and flip over JJ, but I think you take down enough pots w/ the push, and double up+ enought times when you're called to make the risk more than worth it.

I'm wondering myself how big the initial raise has to be for me to lay this down. What if it was UTG1 raising to 175 followed by a call? 200? Your FE is going down, but with your a smallish stack size (and going to be very small once the blinds go up), I think I may be making a stand with 10s. I'm probably laying 9s down, definitely pushing any raise w/ JJ. Thoughts?

Beck 12-07-2005 12:27 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
Furthermore, I need help doing ICM calculations on this one:

I put SB and BB's calling ranges to TT+, ATs+,AQo+ (5.3%)and UTG1 and UTG2 to 88+, A8s+, ATo+, KQo, KQs (9.8%).

The chance of not being called is 0,902*0,902*0,947*0,947 = 72,8%??
But when I have to do ICM-calculations on each of the possible scenarios if being called I got a problem (72,8+9,8+9,8+5,3+5,3= 102,3%!!!!)

If called by either SB or BB I'll win 42%

If called by either UTG1 or UTG2 I'll win 53%

Chip count at start 720,735,1015,680,1695,1365,1135,655 ICM=0,0866

Chip count if they all fold 695,685,1015,580,1595,1365,1135,930 ICM=0,1189

Chip count if called and I win:
SB call 65,685,1015,580,1595,1365,1135,1560 ICM= 0,187
BB call 695,80,1015,580,1595,1365,1135,1535 ICM= 0,1845
UTG1 call 695,685,1015,25.1595.1365.1135,1485 ICM= 0,1796
UTG2 call 695,685,1015,580,1040,1365,1135,1485 ICM=0,1766

How do I go from here??

tigerite 12-07-2005 12:45 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
You can't work it out like that, because UTG1 and UTG2's ranges are, presumably, not any two cards.

By that, I mean that the hands they call with (if you are assuming top 10% or whatever) are actually a higher % of the hands they currently hold - at a pinch I'd say 40-50% in fact.

Beck 12-07-2005 12:49 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
The calling range I set fot UTG1+2 was the hands I figured that they would initially min-raise/call with respectively, and then call my push.

tigerite 12-07-2005 03:25 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
Trust me, you've done it wrong.

Beck 12-08-2005 08:20 AM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
well, enlighten me, please

tigerite 12-08-2005 09:14 AM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
Meh.. I'll have to dig out how to do these formulae later, I worked it out a long time ago. It's not as simple as "normal" ICM though, not by a long shot.

12-08-2005 11:47 AM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, I need help doing ICM calculations on this one:

I put SB and BB's calling ranges to TT+, ATs+,AQo+ (5.3%)and UTG1 and UTG2 to 88+, A8s+, ATo+, KQo, KQs (9.8%).

[/ QUOTE ]

But, that's not 9.8% of the range with which they would already have put chips in the pot. You've got to figure out what their intial ranges were for entering the pot and then determine with what percentage of those they will call the raise.

[ QUOTE ]
The chance of not being called is 0,902*0,902*0,947*0,947 = 72,8%??
But when I have to do ICM-calculations on each of the possible scenarios if being called I got a problem (72,8+9,8+9,8+5,3+5,3= 102,3%!!!!)

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like this is because you have not accounted for the possibility of two (or more) players calling the raise.

12-08-2005 12:11 PM

Re: $22 blind 25/50: Push with TT on button aftre min-raise + caller
 
I think it is a definite push as well. There is no way you can fold this hand, and there is no raise that does not justify an all-in bet. With 3 cards coming down on the flop, there is a good chance that one of them will be higher than a T. So, why raise, have a chance at seeing a really high flop, then folding with only 300 chips left? You should at least keep some FE by raising all in.


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