Post deleted by Cola
 

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I am trying to keep an open mind while reading this thread, but I really don't see pushing as being a "sure thing" here. Certainly, if I felt strongly that SB or BB would fold with anything but the strongest of holdings, then I would push.

However, in most cases, my sense is that I would rather wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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It's odd how this is all you have seen. I have seen several people with similar insight on why pushing is correct and have written several reasons of which you are choosing to ignore.

Today is the first day I have seen any of your posts (and I would assume its one of your first few days as you have so few posts), and I have seen nothing but bad commentary from you.

Whether it is you saying how wonderful your lifestyle is because you make 5k a week by one working through Wedensday, or you telling other people they are wrong, without giving any logic (despite what you may claim is logic) makes it clear to me you are just here to be confrontational. You have no desire to add to this forum in any meaningful way.

I have a strong suspicion you are just some $3 SNG player on Stars that thinks it will be fun to say you play the biggest games and are a huge winner, and clearly know the correct answer to every situation. All I know for sure is that I can correctly dismiss any of your posts as being helpful or insightful in any way. Have fun...

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Wow, nice essay. Giving me special attention, I feel all warm inside. I'm sorry that you are jealous of my lifestyle, I cannot help that. I'm also sorry that when someone goes against the braindead pushbotting strategy and actually THINKS about about the situation etc they get hammered. Maybe there should be an auto-reponse on all new posts saying "PUSH!" I dunno why people ask what to do, the answer is inevitably the same. I guess I'm not gonna learn much here, and it may even harm my game to keep reading.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having never seen you play, I have no idea if you are a winning or losing poker player.

Having read several of your posts, I can tell that the poker part doesn't matter. You are just a loser.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I think that the OP's stack is just big enough to have a very, very good chance of getting heads up. Think about it:

He pushes. SB still would have to call an additional 255 chips more in order to call. That is 23% of his stack. (He'd be down to t770 if he called and lost - not an insignificant hit to his stack.) AND he still has BB to worry about acting after him. So, the bottom line is that he needs a good hand. But most players aren't going to call off this much of their stack from the SB here. They (I should say I) would push the BB out if I had a hand that I was going to commit this many chips to.

So the bottom line is it is quite likely that the OP will end up heads-up with one of the blinds. His stack is just large enough to make this very likely, IMO.



PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t3800)
UTG+1 (t930)
CO (t610)
Hero (t330)
SB (t1100)
BB (t1230)

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

fwiw, I'm the one that initially told him this wasn't a super easy push, and I guess that's why he posted the hand. Hopefully we can get this ish back on track and move the trolling/troll-hunting to another thread.

This hand is really close imo. I don't think he has much FE over the BB at all - BB's probably calling like 80%+ of hands. Which if we put SB on 'M' in SNGPT, and BB at 80%, it's still +EV by like 0.2% if I remember correctly. Anyway, the problem is is that whenever the SB calls, the BB is almost always calling since now he has the chance to bust you AND he has very nice pot odds. So you get called by both players a fair % of the time, and the SB might even be calling as much as 30-40% of hands. When you get called by both players it's truly disastrous, regardless of your range.

I'd rather try to wait for a hand that has at least a decent chance of doubling you up when you go UI. J8o is just not good enough when there's the chance that you're up against two players. You may or may not get this hand...but I think it's a lot better to then just take your BB (I certainly would not push from UTG with this stack since you get called by 2+ players WAY too often). Your opponents will recognize that they have no FE and often give you a walk, or at worst you're probably only going up against one player.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

Perg, my point is that it is the best of many bad options. And for the reasoning I gave in my last post, I think that the OP's stack is just large enough that the hand doesn't turn into a call, call, check it down nightmare.

Being able to open push from the button w/ a slightly above average hand seems like as good as we can hope for, IMO.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I see what you mean, and I agree that his stack is big enough that he's not going to get called in both spots all the time. But he's going to get called in both spots enough of the time that I think it's going to be -EV. I mean when I looked at this, it was only +0.2 or +0.3%, and that's of course only when you get one caller. That's very close, and when you consider the fact that sometimes you get two callers, I think it swings it into the -EV zone. Basically I'm not confident enough that a push is +EV to actually do it. It's all crappy, as you said, but I'd rather hope for a walk in the BB or just race one player.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, I'm the one that initially told him this wasn't a super easy push, and I guess that's why he posted the hand. Hopefully we can get this ish back on track and move the trolling/troll-hunting to another thread.

This hand is really close imo. I don't think he has much FE over the BB at all - BB's probably calling like 80%+ of hands. Which if we put SB on 'M' in SNGPT, and BB at 80%, it's still +EV by like 0.2% if I remember correctly. Anyway, the problem is is that whenever the SB calls, the BB is almost always calling since now he has the chance to bust you AND he has very nice pot odds. So you get called by both players a fair % of the time, and the SB might even be calling as much as 30-40% of hands. When you get called by both players it's truly disastrous, regardless of your range.

I'd rather try to wait for a hand that has at least a decent chance of doubling you up when you go UI. J8o is just not good enough when there's the chance that you're up against two players. You may or may not get this hand...but I think it's a lot better to then just take your BB (I certainly would not push from UTG with this stack since you get called by 2+ players WAY too often). Your opponents will recognize that they have no FE and often give you a walk, or at worst you're probably only going up against one player.

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What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

Youre not gaining any FE if you wait and only losing EV by having the possibility of MORE players in the hand.

Youre not even assured of having it folded to you again before the blinds hit you, let alone the fact that SB and BB calling is the same probability in later hands as it is now.

So the negative prognosis of your analysis is really only compounded by waiting.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you getting at?

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I don't think it's an obvious push and if I were home I'd play around with SNGPT before responding, but it looks like time to thank UTG for not min-raising, thank CO for not pushing, then push and pray.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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[ QUOTE ]
At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me2, I'd be ecstatic to have this spot. The naysayers are ignoring that having 2BBs always sucks...trying to find a "better spot" with 2 BBs is often overly optimistic.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me2, I'd be ecstatic to have this spot. The naysayers are ignoring that having 2BBs always sucks...trying to find a "better spot" with 2 BBs is often overly optimistic.

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I push this without thinking.

Now I'm thinking.

Pushing barely EV+ to neutral at best. However, I think this is a situation where the equity of folding is kind of overstated. This is like those UTG hands that look like a fold until you turn the blind equity modeling on and they become huge pushes. I think your current situation justifies reducing the equity of a fold here and makes this a clear push.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

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What are you getting at?

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That your equity in this tourney is already very low. So when talking about risking all of your chips as though you were risking a high likelihood of making the money it is a little misleading. OP already "risked" most of his chips...now he has to find the BEST spot possible to get back into this thing. These "best spots" might not seem so great, but then again, with 330, nothing will seem great.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
After losing the last hand I was left with a seriously short stack. Wait and pray or push? If push, push any 2 from position or is there a limit to your push hands?

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t3800)
UTG+1 (t930)
CO (t610)
Hero (t330)
SB (t1100)
BB (t1230)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero t330 (All-in)</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey everyone, I think there's a valuable lesson in here somewhere and it's a situation I've been thinking about for a while. I think those who are worried about being called by BB and SB are right on target. But I am also inclined to push here... wow, it's a situation that is hard, but comes up often. What to do? I don't know. I had been working on making this post for a while, so now's as good a time as any to post it. I think it's debatable, just interested in hearing all sides. Trolls, you are not welcome in the other thread!!!

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

Theyve explained to you many times why your fold was bad. You just close your ears or something and dont let anything in. Well Im done arguing and not talking to you anymore.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

Okay, ICM takes into account many things. One thing it does not take into account is multiway pots.

By pushing here you are giving yourself the best chance to get HU and race. You have probably little to no fold equity. I would rather take this race HU than get 33 next hand and race 3 other stacks and bust.

ICM counts for a lot, but not everything. There is a reason why there is a range of -EV to +EV decisions where SNGPT indicates marginal decisions. In such places there are other factors that should weigh heavily in your decision. This is one of those cases.

I push here, this is probably the most +EV spot you are going to get. J8os is a decent hand and the BB is very likely to call with like 95% of his hands and fold 72os.

I think the key idea here is the likelyhood of the SB folding which I think is decently high.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

Wow, I had an almost identical situation occur last night in $11, except I was in small blind and had J9o, just a little over 300 chips. I called for 150, he then raised for my remainder. Guess I have to call here, right? He had KK and I lost. After the game I felt I made a horrible mistake... reading this thread has made me reconsider though.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you getting at?

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That your equity in this tourney is already very low. So when talking about risking all of your chips as though you were risking a high likelihood of making the money it is a little misleading. OP already "risked" most of his chips...now he has to find the BEST spot possible to get back into this thing. These "best spots" might not seem so great, but then again, with 330, nothing will seem great.

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True, but its all the equity you've got.

The way I see it, this is a marginal situation in either case. I would probably go with my intuition and reads - but I certainly do not see that it is a slam-dunk case.

Post deleted by Cola
 

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, I'm the one that initially told him this wasn't a super easy push, and I guess that's why he posted the hand. Hopefully we can get this ish back on track and move the trolling/troll-hunting to another thread.

This hand is really close imo. I don't think he has much FE over the BB at all - BB's probably calling like 80%+ of hands. Which if we put SB on 'M' in SNGPT, and BB at 80%, it's still +EV by like 0.2% if I remember correctly. Anyway, the problem is is that whenever the SB calls, the BB is almost always calling since now he has the chance to bust you AND he has very nice pot odds. So you get called by both players a fair % of the time, and the SB might even be calling as much as 30-40% of hands. When you get called by both players it's truly disastrous, regardless of your range.

I'd rather try to wait for a hand that has at least a decent chance of doubling you up when you go UI. J8o is just not good enough when there's the chance that you're up against two players. You may or may not get this hand...but I think it's a lot better to then just take your BB (I certainly would not push from UTG with this stack since you get called by 2+ players WAY too often). Your opponents will recognize that they have no FE and often give you a walk, or at worst you're probably only going up against one player.

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See what you started? NoOb Troll.

It's a fairly +EV push btw, which all but a few posters acknowledge, assuming the broader ranges you'd put BB on.

I think the problem comes when SB and BB "team up" and both call and check it down.

Post deleted by Cola
 

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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Hero may be dealt a better hand for showdown value, but hero is more than likely not to be given a more +EV opportunity.

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Maybe, maybe not. For sure you'll be dealt a better hand than j8 offsuit.

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That's beside the point. In Hero's situation, the most number of potential callers is 2. If Hero folds and waits for better cards than J8o, there are now 5 possible opponents who may also pick up better cards themselves.

The chances of Hero getting better cards in the next three hands may be good (which I assume is your rationale for folding), but the chances of one of the other five players getting even better cards are higher.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.

Post deleted by Cola
 

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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[ QUOTE ]
What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.

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You want to get the most out of that stack in situations like these. It isnt about giving up, its all about the fact that you have an opportunity here to make HALF of the remaining players fold and to be HU a majority of the time. Your FE against SB is real...that's the crux of the argument.

If I had t140 I would wait for a better hand.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, I had an almost identical situation occur last night in $11, except I was in small blind and had J9o, just a little over 300 chips. I called for 150, he then raised for my remainder. Guess I have to call here, right? He had KK and I lost. After the game I felt I made a horrible mistake... reading this thread has made me reconsider though.

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You shouldn't be calling here - either push or fold with 4BB left. If he had a smaller to mid stack then I'd say push since he would be much more likely to fold. If he had a very large stack then it would be a tougher decision but still probably a push for me with J9o.

rvg

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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Is this REALLY what people think when playing poker? I always wanted to know.

All I have to say is...LOL.

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Please explain. Are your hand selection requirements the same from UTG as in late position?

If not, why does that answer not apply equally here?

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

SNGPT doesn't allow for multiple callers, but ICM does, or at least it doesn't stop you. It just makes the calcs more complicated. Some new poster that is interested in learning how to do these types of calcs should make a new thread and do this.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I think you're forgetting how often some idiot openlimps at the 22s. You get 3 more hands but only 1 that you can be sure to be first to act. You can wait and race with an average hand in the BB, but you might get a multiway pot and you obviously have no FE.

Also, I think you guys are overestimating how loose the blinds will be here. The SB will want a decent hand to call here, and the BB will make some incorrect folds. I guarantee that with more confidence than Jukel can guarantee getting a better hand by the blinds.

Post deleted by Cola
 

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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You are not worthy to tie my shoe laces.

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FYP.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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Is this REALLY what people think when playing poker? I always wanted to know.

All I have to say is...LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain. Are your hand selection requirements the same from UTG as in late position?

If not, why does that answer not apply equally here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop! LOL Stop! I am laughing too much!

[/ QUOTE ]

AKA: I have no answer, so I'll make it look like your question was pointless even though it punches holes in my argument that I cannot defend.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.

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You want to get the most out of that stack in situations like these. It isnt about giving up, its all about the fact that you have an opportunity here to make HALF of the remaining players fold and to be HU a majority of the time. Your FE against SB is real...that's the crux of the argument.

If I had t140 I would wait for a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most of this boils down to how often do SB and BB call. I think BB's calling 75%+ of hands. However when SB calls (how much? 15% 25%?), BB will call with 100% of hands because he's getting pot odds and probably knows you're "supposed" to try to eliminate the shorty all in.

So 15% of the time you're called in two spots, by a 15% hand range and a 100% hand range. 63.7% of the time you get called by a 75% hand range, and 21.2% of the time you don't get called. So let's figure out the equities:

vs two opponents (15% and 100%): 24.11% equity in the hand, 15% tourney equity if you win. So (.2411 * .15) = 3.6% tourney equity after this hand

vs one opponent (75%): 46% equity in the hand, 11.6% tourney equity if you win. (.26 * .116) = 3% tourney equity.

When they both fold: 9% tourney equity

Now weighting them:
.15 * .036 = 0.5%
.637 * .03 = 1.9%
.212 * .09 = 1.9%

Add em up and you get 4.3% equity vs 5.6% equity if you fold.

That took a little while [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So I'm not going to do it for a different call range for the BB. But as you can see, they'll both have to be playing a bit tighter for a push to be +EV.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

One last thing, all trolls and troll-hunters or anyone who has brought up or even thought of making a post which includes the word "troll" (excluding this one, of course [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) should shut the [censored] up and take it to PM.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call BS

[/ QUOTE ]

Like the terminology, think I may adopt it.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

So you feel that your EV is higher by waiting?

IOW, you argue that the equity you save by folding on this hand is more than the equity you lose on subsequent hands where you have: more players acting after you, the possibility of a raise before you, and a worse hand (this last point I will concede as irrelevent).

The issue comes down to whether your FE is so small so as to negate position and being open folded to. I dont think it is here...with less chips I would agree.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
One last thing, all trolls and troll-hunters or anyone who has brought up or even thought of making a post which includes the word "troll" (excluding this one, of course [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) should shut the [censored] up and take it to PM.

[/ QUOTE ]

People call em as they see them bro... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]