Is my hand good?
 

2/4 game, full table, I have $1000, villain is with $750.

I was playing a very crazy game, pushing people around, raising and reraising. Villain is a tight, looks like a solid player, not too passive or aggressive. He made a rather big call against me earlier when I bluffed him on some river. And I also cracked his AA with KK all-in, so he is generally somewhat pissed at me and also talked about it a bit.

Villain raises to $15 UTG+1. Folded to me on SB, I call with 6c6s.

Flop: 7 T 6, all diamonds.

I lead for $24. Villain calls.

Turn: 3 heart. I bet $55, villain calls. This is a bit strange, because it's a bit tough for me to see how he plays an over-pair, any pair, or flush draw this way. OTOH, he might think I'm on a complete bluff, and wants to get value out of me with some marginal holding. Still I'd expect him to raise on such a board if he has a made hand, and also if he has a draw (and of course to bluff me out).

River: 3s.

I over bet for $220, which is something I did couple of times before. Villain raises $600+ more and is all-in. He is not a maniac and I havn't seen him bluffing like this at all, plus - he didn't see me making big loose calls or anything. Anybody thinks about laying this down?

Re: Is my hand good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anybody thinks about laying this down?

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Never. I'll give my stack to 77, TT, or quads every time, but you're going to see a flopped nut flush, straight, or overpair with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] WAY more often than anything that beats you here.

Re: Is my hand good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anybody thinks about laying this down?

[/ QUOTE ] Never. I'll give my stack to 77, TT, or quads every time, but you're going to see a flopped nut flush, straight, or overpair with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] WAY more often than anything that beats you here.

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I think that against this particular player, and the way the hand was played plus his EP PF raise, a nut flush is much more probable than the straight, and I don't see him flat calling the turn with an over pair with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. That's why all that is left is pretty much TT, 77 or some nut flush combination. (or a complete bluff with a hand that didn't hit anything from beginning to end, but this is not very likely coming from this opponent).

Calling this looks pretty obvious, of course, but I'd like to think about the probabilites of different hands here.

Re: Is my hand good?
 

I can't really imagine him just calling this turn with anything but the nut flush.

I call the river.

Re: Is my hand good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't really imagine him just calling this turn with anything but the nut flush.

I call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]what do you think he does with TT?

Re: Is my hand good?
 

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I can't really imagine him just calling this turn with anything but the nut flush.

I call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]what do you think he does with TT?

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, raise to protect again a lone diamond?

Re: Is my hand good?
 

I can see him calling the turn with TT. It is risky, but hey, raising is risky too. Many, for example me, would almost never raise TT UTG+1 however. Whether he does or not is somewhat deducible from pokertracker stats.
I think he often has the nut flush and is overplaying it because he's pissed at you. I'd call, but some % of the time you're beat here. Not enough to lay it down though, if you ask me.

Re: Is my hand good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can see him calling the turn with TT. It is risky, but hey, raising is risky too. Many, for example me, would almost never raise TT UTG+1 however. Whether he does or not is somewhat deducible from pokertracker stats.
I think he often has the nut flush and is overplaying it because he's pissed at you. I'd call, but some % of the time you're beat here. Not enough to lay it down though, if you ask me.

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I think he is raising TT UTG+1. Not too sure about 77. On the turn I believe he is capable of flat calling with a set of tens. Especially since he thinks I'm over aggressive, and might think I can bet there without even having the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I agree that often he has the nut flush. The fact that he's pissed at me makes this move with the flush rather probable. But a pretty significant % of the time he certainly has me beat there, IMO. Not enough to fold this though, but it isn't like he has a huge variety of hands.

Re: Is my hand good?
 

in this spot, i put him on a flopped flush and call this down. i actually think this is a super easy call. first--hes semi tilting, so you must adjust for that. secondly, it plays a lot more like a slow played flush with poor river play rather than a filled up set. if he flopped a big flush and called you on the flop/4th, hes definetly gonna raise you on the river and based on your riverbet, he has really only one move. what exactly were you expecting him to do against your overbet and what was your line on that? hoping to represent a missed flush draw and get called by top pair? also take note that once you make your overbet, you have to call the river every time. theres too much in on the river and your hand is too strong, even tho its a very weak full