I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision
 

Satellite, 1st place only qualifies. Blinds 100/200. 5 left. CO is 1900, I'm at 2100. All his raises to date have been 2.5BB. He goes all in, SB folds. I put him on a medium pair, with the small probability that he has A-weak.

I'm holding A-J. What would you do [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
Would you do the same if it was a top three paid SNG [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision
 

Tell me more about the other players. What are their stacksizes compared to the two of you? How often has he been raising? How often compared to the others?

I sense you're thinking this is a bet that doesn't want to be called. Is that correct?

Finally, what is so attractive about AJ?

Re: I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision
 

Two other players on about 1700, remaining player less than 1000. It was a very solid table everyone, including villain had been stealing about once an orbit, with no one really playing back.

I was fairly certain he had middle pocket pairs, so, if we factor in the blinds and allow for the fact that he might be holding Ax (less than J), I felt it was slightly EV positive.

There's nothing particularly attractive about A-J, but I spent some time in the time bank wondering whether having over twice the stack of my closest opponent in a winner takes all SnG wouldn't be very advantageous (outweighing the fact that 50% of the time I go out).

Re: I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision
 

If your read is perfect, do you wanna race at this point? If it isn't perfect, you're toast...I don't think your odds are 50/50...more like 65/35 ?

Re: I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision
 

If you win a coinflip, you'll have a much stronger shot at first.
If you lose, you're pretty much out.

Villain isn't manic and stealing more than he should.

AJ is not a bad hand 5-handed


so, I guess this come down to: do you think you can outplay the table?

Re: I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision
 

I wouldn't be surprised if an ICM analysis proved this to be a close fold. Which is exactly how I feel about it. Close, but fold.

Re: I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on a medium pair, with the small probability that he has A-weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm holding A-J. What would you do

[/ QUOTE ]

assuming full confidence in your read-that is- he ALWAYS has a small pp or Ax,(which i dont understand), i would call without thinking.

without a strong read, or- assuming that there is a chance he might also push with AQ or AK or a high PP, i would fold without thinking.

i would probably always fold in a game which paid the top 3.

Re: I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision
 

I agree with your analysis he is overbetting his marginal hand. If you get it heads up you will probably be in a coinflip or a nice fav against a weak Ace.

I think this is a tough/close decision. I would lean towards calling.

In a 3 payout SNG I would probably call if the stack were around even. If two other players were short stacked I would fold.

Re: I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision
 

My thoughts were as follows: since 1st is the only place that counts by doubling up I have a good chance to dominate the table - I felt with close to half the chips I would have at least a 60% chance of winning. If it had been a regular SnG I would have folded. I called, he turned over 77 and some fool had taken all the aces, jacks, straight & flush cards out of the pack.

My opponent went on to win in fairly comfortable fashion. Conclusion: the operation was a success but the patient died.