what to do with jacks on the river?
 

game is loose/passive $10/20 B&M. Raised pots are usually taken 3-4 handed. Unraised pots usually 5-6 handed.

I'm in EMP w/ pocket jacks (suits unimportant) and open raise. folded to LP who three bets (he's passive tight, and this is the second three bet I've seen from him. First was with AKs where he missed on the flop and went into check-call mode) all fold to the BB who caps (this means he has any pair or suited broadway cards). I call and LP calls. 3 handed for 12.5 SB

Flop comes 10-8-7 rainbow. BB checks, I bet, called by both opponents. 3 handed for 7.5 BB

Turn comes (10-8-7) 8, completing the rainbow. Checked to me, I bet, called by both again. 3 handed for 10.5 BB

River comes [(10-8-7) 8] K. Checked to me. I check, LP bets, BB folds. I....?


Can I safely fold getting 11.5:1? I felt as close to 100% certian that I was beat as I've ever felt at the table, but I only have to be wrong once in a blue moon for this fold to be incorrect. Meh?

Re: what to do with jacks on the river?
 

Based on your description of how certain you were I think you have to lay it down - for me I would have to have an incredible read on the guy to lay it down for one bet on the river, and unfortuntaly maybe my spidy senses are not as strong as yours but I can almost never put someone on a hand with 92%+ certantity (as it has been my experience that MHIG more often than I thought in these crying call situations).....

Re: what to do with jacks on the river?
 

sorry - one more thought - by checking the river you could have induced the guy to bluff on the end - as such there is even less of a chance that I would fold to one bet, and I may even be tempted to cr if I thought he was putting me on draw........jmho

Re: what to do with jacks on the river?
 

I have seen this before, considering the limit you were at, I would suspect he was slow playing his A8, but hey maybe he has the K, either way I don't believe the JJ is gonna hold up

Re: what to do with jacks on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
sorry - one more thought - by checking the river you could have induced the guy to bluff on the end - as such there is even less of a chance that I would fold to one bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo. Easy call for me.

Re: what to do with jacks on the river?
 

The tight button three-bet with A8? Are you joking?

Re: what to do with jacks on the river?
 

He's probably got AK of course but just might be trying his luck with AQ. He also might have 99. I think you have to call.

Re: what to do with jacks on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's probably got AK of course but just might be trying his luck with AQ. He also might have 99. I think you have to call.

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this is what i was going to say. he could be bluffing AQ or could be thinking that his 99 is good now. easy call for me, unless you really have a good read on him.

Re: what to do with jacks on the river?
 

i would call this everytime... i can think of many hands that would bet this river (99 or A10s especially, although the latter is not as probable)

11.5 to 1 - you know you'll be right one of those times...call