what to make of a huge loss
 

I have just had the worst day of my poker playing career. Took a 570 dollar downswing. played 2/4 limit, 100 NL and 50 NL and multiple times, again and again, took what seemed to be an endless stream of bad beats. This is not meant to be a bad beat post. I am well aware and I have taken a number of bad beats, as has naybody who's played 50-60K hands.

My post is more on the magnitude of my downswing. I literally feel extremely negative and feel like armageddon a.k.a. the destruction of my bankroll is near. I have played well and averaged 2.5 BB/100 on the Limit games over 20K hands. This is something i never thought was poassible. Why have I just wiped out a large portion of my profits. I cannot pinpoint anything I've done wrong with my game.

Rather than sympathy or specific hand advice, I wanted to get someone's opinion on how to handle such huge downswings where you feel you've just been kicked in the stomach and fallen over.

How do I psychologically deal with this loss and get back to my A game when my confidence is extremely low.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

Take a break for a while. That's the best advice I could give... because, that's what I do, and it typically works for me. I am currently in the middle of a self-imposed break due to a bad couple of days.

-RMJ

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

Here's a link to a post I made about this recently

A quick tip on how to handle a downswing

As for the $570, all I can say is congratulations, because now that you've had your first sizable loss, you're on your way to becoming a more serious gambler. I say "on your way" because the question is "how are you going to handle this?"

If you handle it well, you pass the test, and you can move on to the next challenge. If you don't pass the test, then you do not pass go, do not collect 2.5bb/100, and don't get any sympathy either after you lose your whole bankroll.

[ QUOTE ]
My post is more on the magnitude of my downswing. I literally feel extremely negative and feel like armageddon a.k.a. the destruction of my bankroll is near.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, stop right now. Its YOUR decision if you are going to go broke or not. This is not some cosmic unfolding of events. If you lose your roll, then you are to blame. However, if you take this issue seriously, here are some quick things that you can do:

1. Read Professional poker by Mark Blade
It has some very good practical tips for how to manage your bankroll.

2. Post more on the psych forum. It helps.

3. Stop feeling sorry for yourself. If you are a winning player, then you're lucky to have a better hourly rate than many people in bad retail or manufacturing jobs.

4. Drop down in limits if its appropriate for you. For more info on whether or not you should drop in limits, either use the search function or read Mark's book.

5. For now at least, try to replace some of your negative feelings with something positive. Ask a cute girl out to eat. Go to a club or a bar. Read a book. Go see a movie. Get riproaring drunk. Go do community service. Go exericise.

Best wishes,
Snowball

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

That may seem lke a lot, but at 2/4 limit or 100 NL I'd say its a fairly common occurance, I wouldn't get to bent out of shape by it. Review and see if you are doing something wrong, even if this is your normal game and you are running badly, no doubt you will find a few problems which are costing you money if you look hard enough.

Regards Mack

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

Might seem big now, but you'll take worse if you are serious about playing long-term.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

You have to realize that average players are getting better and, just like the stock market, the poker craze is gonna bubble (if not already) and burst.

First, fewer and fewer new players will play.
Then the average players will get bored with losing, after all the fish are gone.
Then only the good (read addicted) players will remain, and then they start feeding off each other.

I don't doubt that some of those giving you advice to keep playing are the same ones that are taking your money at the tables.


You can stop playing, only play for fun, or read one of "Dr." Al's stupid articles and keep plugging at it. Enjoy.

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have to realize that average players are getting better and, just like the stock market, the poker craze is gonna bubble (if not already) and burst.

First, fewer and fewer new players will play.
Then the average players will get bored with losing, after all the fish are gone.
Then only the good (read addicted) players will remain, and then they start feeding off each other.

I don't doubt that some of those giving you advice to keep playing are the same ones that are taking your money at the tables.


You can stop playing, only play for fun, or read one of "Dr." Al's stupid articles and keep plugging at it. Enjoy.

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just flat out wrong.

Yes, the bubble may be about to burst, but there will always be a supply of fresh fish. It might get smaller - and that might mean that fewer people will me able to make a living off poker - but there will always be new players, players who pick up the game for the first time, players who only play on occasion, players who play for fun, players who don't take the game seriously and players who are just plain bad.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

If your theory that most fish will quit the game was correct... casino's would have been out of business long ago. A lotta people play for fun and will always play even when they always lose.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

Ok, you can't open a post by saying "This is just flat out wrong." and then say that I'm right in some respects.

What I meant was this:

There's a poverty line in poker. Let's say player X started out his playing career as a novice (mostly likely a fish, as we all do), then got better by experience, books, and discussions. X is now above the poverty line. He's proud, and should be, it took a lot of hard work to get here. X on average tho, worked hard enough to be a winning player, not necessarily world class. This, I think, describes the majority of the readers in this forum.

The poker craze slows down. Less fish are in the sea. Now there are better and better players at X's table. This effectively translates into the poverty line moving up, and X is now below said line, and now is getting fed off of, instead.

There will be good days, but they will be fewer and farther in between. Players at this forum will keep saying that it takes thousands of hands to tell if this is for real. If X depends on playing to pay the rent, he might get in trouble way before that many hands show a trend that tells him that playing poker is -EV.

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

This your first downswing? If so... it might help for you to know that mostly all winning players know exactly how you're feeling right now. When I drop 5 buyins I feel like im in a dark hole that I won't be able to get out of... but I do... and you eventually will if you are a winning player. Just focus on winning it back a little bit at a time. Win back $100 tomorrow and then just log off so you don't feel the burden of winning it back all at once. Just get off after having made back $100 and then go over a friends house or something. Then the day after that win back another $100.. or even $200 if you feel up to the challenge.. just don't try to sit there and make it back all in one session.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

The best thing that ever happened to me in NL was losing a big pot
I lost top two pair to a gutshot and flush draw when we were all in on the turn at the borgata
It was about a 600 dollar pot
I was playing a little too scared and after that I was like [censored] it thats the worst that could happen - big deal

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

The main problem I have with the idea of the poker bubble bursting is that it's not quite so much of a bubble as people think. Tens of millions of people in the US were playing poker weekly or more often well before this popularity surge, which makes me think that the game will be very, very popular for a long time to come.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

yeah, taking a huge dip at 2/4 feels like crap, especially because the winners actually start playing worse against you, yet still manage to take all your money. But with a 2.5 BB expectation, you are probably looking at about a 30 hr standard deviation, which means you can go as bad as 700 dollars or so. And this streak can last for over 400 hours.

By the way, we are on a poker bubble, just ask all of the props in Southern California who all of a sudden lost their jobs. A few are keeping their old- timers on, because they will need the props when the bubble does burst. Then we all can get jobs as props, or go broke.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

Thats a good point. I think that the poker boom that people talk about is partly owed to home game players opening up internet accounts or playing in public rooms.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

Mike Caro has written several articles on his concept of a
"threshold of misery" that you should read. A brief and totally inadaquate summary might be -

You plan to play poker, or gamble on just about anything else, with the idea that once you lose, say, $200 you'll call it a night. But you go beyond that, feeling worse and worse about your play. At some point, maybe $600 or $700 you reach what he describes as your threshold of misery - and money lost beyond that just doesn't seem to matter at the time. In the morning, of course.......

Anyway, you might look it up - it's an interesting concept, and one which I think has some validity......

M

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

First of all the advice of others I agree with.

(1) Take a break.
(2) Play small for a while.

I will add a couple more.

(3) Monitor your opponants carefully. Playing with smart people instead of fools can kill your win rate. At the limits you speak of going from +3BB hour to -3BB hour ev is typical.

(4) Play one game at a time. I know this goes against the normal advice (and my own point #3). The normal advice being to play many softer low limit games instead of one somewhat tougher game.

Short term that advice is good long term though it hurts. When you play one game at a time and give it 100% of your attention you not only learn more about your opponants but equally important you improve your own game. Each time you play therefor you play just a little bit better than the session before. Over time studying between sessions and improving through experiance your win rate will very slowly improve.

Contrast this with multi tableing. Each session you play your play deteriorates because you are swithing your mind from learning and improving upon concepts to relying more heavily on memorization. Over time this will stunt your growth as a poker player. As with trying to become an expert in any field look at what the top payers are doing and try to emulate them. Do you think David & Mason would be the players they are today if they focused on playing 3 games at once instead of 1? I doubt it.

walla
 

still think there's no bubble?

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/db5a6244-1f...00e2511c8.html

Re: walla
 

[ QUOTE ]
still think there's no bubble?

[/ QUOTE ]
Party revenues and users GREW. Just not as much as investors hoped.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

Spend $1200+ on a new set of irons, top-line driver, and a new golf bag as well. Once you start to see things in a new perspective (and it will happend), losing $500+ won't seem like such a big deal.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

[ QUOTE ]
Might seem big now, but you'll take worse if you are serious about playing long-term.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. I started playing 10,000 hands a week at 2/4 about 2 months ago.

I went through a 200BB downswing over 500 hands. Then 50,000 hands running at 3.5BB/100.

Now, over the last 10,000 hands, I'm down 250BB.

Variance can suck my ****

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

Thank you all for this. I needed to read some of these posts as I felt GREAT about my playing this past weekend and still was able to lose over a grand at the 10/20 live. While I realize that 50BB's is not that significant, it was the way that I lost it. Run down after run down after run down. Raise UTG with KK only to be called HU by the SB with A4o and flop comes J44. That kinda thing. Not whining and not trying to hijack. Just wanted to post that hearing that there is light at the end of the tunnel helps.

STAY ON IT!

Thanks all.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have to realize that average players are getting better and, just like the stock market, the poker craze is gonna bubble (if not already) and burst.

First, fewer and fewer new players will play.
Then the average players will get bored with losing, after all the fish are gone.
Then only the good (read addicted) players will remain, and then they start feeding off each other.

I don't doubt that some of those giving you advice to keep playing are the same ones that are taking your money at the tables.


You can stop playing, only play for fun, or read one of "Dr." Al's stupid articles and keep plugging at it. Enjoy.

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow - this might be the most useless response I've ever read ...

Re: walla
 

Stocks go through their own periods of variance.

My reason for leaving Party was simple...no more rakeback. I wonder how many others left for that reason.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

At my lowest point, I lost $12,000 yesterday.

I won $8000 back.

Don't sweat it, everyone has a bad day sometime.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

You had a bunch of big loss sessions (I can't be sure how many, since I don't know your mix of limit and NL sessions), all on the same day. That happens to everyone eventually, and it's no fun for anyone.

It's shaking you. You're asking what, if anything, it means.

You didn't say if you were playing B&M or online, but not many B&Ms spread a 2/4, so I'd suggest, in addition to the good advice above that the time to ask yourself about your play onling may be after the first several big losses, not at the end of the day. Not only can it help stop *some* of these downturns, but it can reassure you that you are playing a solid game, when it's just variance, and help *keep* your game solid--your only defense, however limited, against variance.

We all know the ugly things that bad sessions can do to your play. Personally, I believe that this may account for abput half the magnitude of many downswings. For many players, it's much more than half.

I'm sure that many 2+2'ers will all me overconservative, saying that I'm losing opportunities, second-guessing myself, etc.-- but since I'm stuck with the disadvantages of my chosen venues, I think I'd be foolish not to exploit the advantages. the ability to stop and do a solid hand review with relatively little interruption in my play can a big plus that I wouldn't have in a B&M. So I use it.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

If it makes you feel any better, you will have much bigger losses than this in the future if you keep playing. One day you will look back fondly at this 145 bb swing and how well you handled it and continued to build up your bankroll.

Unless, of course, you tilt and destroy what is left of your bankroll. Then you will never look back fondly at this time. It sounds like this is your first downswing- how you handle it will largely determine your poker future.

Choose wisely.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

There is a difference between being broke and being poor. Being broke is temporary, being poor is eternal.

*Rich Dad Poor Dad

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

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I have played well and averaged 2.5 BB/100 on the Limit games over 20K hands. This is something i never thought was poassible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hello again. I hate to say it, but you were running hot. From the hands I've seen you play, no one who is that loose and that passive postflop can be a long-term winner. Maybe you've tightened up?

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

First off, play well within your bankroll if you are adverse to living on the edge of ruin.

Second: Here is something I do that has helped me sleep for a long time even after awful sessions:In my book keeping, next to my net for the day, say 100$, I have a column that will say things like 75% of the time it would be a 180$ day. It's a kind of rough estimate, but I add up all the big pots I lost and how much money I put in as a favorite. In the past half year every negative day I've had has had a negative actual number for the day but a very healthy positive number for the "EV" column. If I get beat the hell down, I still have a dumb grin on my face knowing I played right. I used the technique as basically a pain killer, I hated losing that money, but I'd look at the number that would have been if I didn't get sucked out on, and it makes me feel better. This has helped me a great deal in realizing that a loss isn't really a loss and a win really isn't a win, you just have to be happy with the decisions you make because that's where you make the money.

I play mainly big bet, so it's easier to catalogue such numbers, and it's not totally accurate but I do beleive it's incredibly important to be honest with yourself and keep track of how positive your decisions are. If you honestly have just been beat down by variance, just try and laugh and realize the variance is why these games are good.

I used to lose sleep for days over awful sessions, now I only lose sleep when I make awful mistakes.

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

Hi BA,

Your mistake was assuming that while you were doing all your winning, that the results reflected your average winning capabilities. More likely, they reflected you when running good. This is you when running bad. Put them together and you may have a fair picture of what to expect on average. Or not--you really won't know until many, many hands (I don't know how many it takes) have been played.

I play for a living, and I go through horrifying streaks like you related (adjusted upwards for the stakes I play), and I never get used to how fast it comes when I'm running good, or how fast it disappears when I'm not. I always over- or underestimate my own abilities, depending on how I'm running.

When I get a little time and space from it, I can see that over several years, I continue to support myself and my family through poker, so I must be doing something right. One thing I know is a key to my continuing to stay afloat is that I don't absolutely implode when things are going badly anymore. No matter how carefully I play, once a year, for about 4-6 weeks, I cannot make 2 pair or less stand up. Weather this storm, and you'll be better for it. Go off out of frustration, and you can take up fishing.

Or I could've said, "Luck is trying to kill me, but it can't kill me unless I help."--RB

Re: what to make of a huge loss
 

I've had the -300bb downswing before in shorthanded. You get out of it by doing research, thinking about your play, analyzing it, and getting your confidence back up. The ignorant and unconfident do poorly in poker.